Bob Chill Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm not letting it get me down, but I hate when it does this Never easy. Gfs would make my yard happy but honestly it would be a big letdown to me as well. I'm never sold on a major until 48-72hrs but imho, I highly doubt the gfs. Too many ingredients in place for a MA snowstorm and too much general model support to believe the gfs just figured out the final solution. Euro has been crazy steady. People expecting 12-18" already are setting themselves up but a widespread warning level event for all our yards seems quite likely 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Cmc looked great... Ukmet is next. Hope it holds what it showed at 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, TowsonWeather said: 15+ inches isn't HECS level? Tough crowd lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Given how this winter and the last few have gone I'd gladly take HALF of what the CMC just said and call it a good storm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Let’s hope the GFS scores another coup like the other 2 MECS it’s predicted this winter 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 20 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Back to what it was showing yesterday or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, GreyHat said: Back to what it was showing yesterday or so. Good observation GreyHat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: 15+ inches isn't HECS level? Be careful with Kucera! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 GEFS through 90 looks like it would be less suppressive than the op, baja low ejecting faster and less confluence out front. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 4 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: 15+ inches isn't HECS level? Top 10 snowfalls in this neck of the woods are generally 20"+ at the big airports. We've seen this tendency to de-amplify system between HR 84 - 144 this winter so caution is still advised. Until the key players get into the upper air network we need to temper expectations. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 GEFS holds a bit more energy back (not surprising) but generally seems fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Quite the cold outbreak nationwide after the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 UKIE maybe a tad slower and south to bring out the Baja closed low but its coming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Yeah GEFS is a lot closer to "normal" than the absolute catastrophe that was GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Not a great shift on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Ukie will just fine. Mod to heavy snow by 9Z Sunday. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Ukie still a beat down 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said: Not a great shift on the GEFS. Is it slower and that's the difference? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 And its trying to tuck, may just be a hair north with it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, LeesburgWx said: Is it slower and that's the difference? I am mobile, but was gonna say, that doesn’t look like an appreciable step back. Qpf max in similar spot, definitely not like the op. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: Not a great shift on the GEFS. It’s drier overall - it’s just noise I think. DC still almost .8” liquid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, LeesburgWx said: Is it slower and that's the difference? Less interaction between the northern and southern stream. Also the southern stream get sheared out coming into the southwestern US. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Where are yall seeing UK maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Ukie is a hecs lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: Not a great shift on the GEFS. Gefs is a hive to the op and it becomes more pronounced at shorter leads. EPS can be similar but not on the same level. Gefs always mirrors the op inside of 7 days. If the 18z op goes big, so will the gefs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, Nomz said: Where are yall seeing UK maps? 7 1 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Woof 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Is it slower and that's the difference? Maybe to an extent, but there are definitely are some misses to the South for most of the region on the individual members. Outliers though 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, T. August said: It’s drier overall - it’s just noise I think. DC still almost .8” liquid It's amazing how the GFS op shows almost nothing for dc yet its own ensembles show almost .80 inches of liquid lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Well the UK met looks strong again, MECS+ for a majority of the sub. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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