January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm not letting it get me down, but I hate when it does this

Never easy. Gfs would make my yard happy but honestly it would be a big letdown to me as well. I'm never sold on a major until 48-72hrs but imho, I highly doubt the gfs. Too many ingredients in place for a MA snowstorm and too much general model support to believe the gfs just figured out the final solution. Euro has been crazy steady. People expecting 12-18" already are setting themselves up but a widespread warning level event for all our yards seems quite likely 

[winter_warlock]

  Cmc looked great...  Ukmet is next. Hope it holds what it showed at 00z

[mitchnick]

Just now, TowsonWeather said:

15+ inches isn't HECS level?

Tough crowd lol

[H2O]

Given how this winter and the last few have gone I'd gladly take HALF of what the CMC just said and call it a good storm

[rjvanals]

Let’s hope the GFS scores another coup like the other 2 MECS it’s predicted this winter 

[GreyHat]

20 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Back to what it was showing yesterday or so.

[T. August]

Just now, GreyHat said:

Back to what it was showing yesterday or so.

Good observation GreyHat

[MN Transplant]

3 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

15+ inches isn't HECS level?

Be careful with Kucera!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

GEFS through 90 looks like it would be less suppressive than the op, baja low ejecting faster and less confluence out front.

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

15+ inches isn't HECS level?

Top 10 snowfalls in this neck of the woods are generally 20"+ at the big airports. We've seen this tendency to de-amplify system between HR 84 - 144 this winter so caution is still advised. Until the key players get into the upper air network we need to temper expectations.

[SnowenOutThere]

GEFS holds a bit more energy back (not surprising) but generally seems fine. 

[clskinsfan]

Quite the cold outbreak nationwide after the storm.

[LP08]

UKIE maybe a tad slower and south to bring out the Baja closed low but its coming out.

[Nomz]

Yeah GEFS is a lot closer to "normal" than the absolute catastrophe that was GFS

[Ephesians2]

Not a great shift on the GEFS. 

[StormyClearweather]

Ukie will just fine. Mod to heavy snow by 9Z Sunday. 

[LP08]

Ukie still a beat down

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said:

Not a great shift on the GEFS. 

Is it slower and that's the difference?

[LP08]

And its trying to tuck, may just be a hair north with it.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

Is it slower and that's the difference?

I am mobile, but was gonna say, that doesn’t look like an appreciable step back. Qpf max in similar spot, definitely not like the op.

[T. August]

2 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

Not a great shift on the GEFS. 

It’s drier overall - it’s just noise I think. DC still almost .8” liquid

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

Is it slower and that's the difference?

Less interaction between the northern and southern stream. Also the southern stream get sheared out coming into the southwestern US. 

[Nomz]

Where are yall seeing UK maps?

[LP08]

Ukie is a hecs lol

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

Not a great shift on the GEFS. 

Gefs is a hive to the op and it becomes more pronounced at shorter leads. EPS can be similar but not on the same level. Gefs always mirrors the op inside of 7 days. If the 18z op goes big, so will the gefs. 

[paulythegun]

Just now, Nomz said:

Where are yall seeing UK maps?

[StormyClearweather]

Woof

[Ephesians2]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Is it slower and that's the difference?

Maybe to an extent, but there are definitely are some misses to the South for most of the region on the individual members. Outliers though

[winter_warlock]

Just now, T. August said:

It’s drier overall - it’s just noise I think. DC still almost .8” liquid

It's amazing how the GFS op shows almost nothing for dc yet its own ensembles show almost .80 inches of liquid lol 

[DDweatherman]

Well the UK met looks strong again, MECS+ for a majority of the sub.