January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[SnowenOutThere]

GFS while dragging its heels a bit out west still has some interaction so it still should get the East coast storm. We're not back to the truly terrible 18z run yesterday. 

[Massanothing]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Sucky thing about being into weather and blabbing about it is when the models start coming out and I'm clearly deep into my screen, 1200 co workers pick THEN to want to come over and ask me about the storm.  Anyway, GFS looks good so far.

I think Saturday could be completely dry?

Try being a public school teacher who is also a weather geek...I'll get nothing taught over the next couple of days....

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Alfoman said:

Was nice while it lasted GFS 

Can't get comfortable until we are sure the models are gonna get this part right 

[DDweatherman]

All I am watching on today's run is making sure this energy ejects out properly and in some timely manner. After that, the recipe for a big hit isn't that difficult to make.  

[clskinsfan]

It is interacting at 102. Might be delayed. But give enough time for lower confluence in the east. Could still be a good run. 

[TSSN+]

There’s a reason the gfs has the lowest verification scores folks. 

[T. August]

Could just be delayed - hr111 coming on shore 

Edit: looks pretty bad at 123 ngl

[stormtracker]

Yeah, it's going to slide just south and east of us with the good stuff so far

[Alfoman]

AIGFS similarly holding back more of the baja energy, leading to a more surprised result - not surprising thus far but something to keep in mind. Don't want to see this mirrored on the rest of the suite 

[andyhb]

GFS is very heavily suppressed. That's the number one failure mode with this storm by far with a near record strength Arctic high to the north.

[stormtracker]

Left most of the s/w back  with another s/w or some sw energy above it...I dunno know what it's doing, but it's vastly different than 6z h5

[TSSN+]

Probably the way gfs looks it’s going to have a second wave late. 

[anotherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I dunno know what it's doing,

It doesn't know what it's doing.

[Alfoman]

1 minute ago, andyhb said:

GFS is very heavily suppressed. That's the number one failure mode with this storm by far with a near record strength Arctic high to the north.

Agreed - looks like the GFS came in even stronger initially with that high as it's diving down (1051 mb)

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Left most of the s/w back  with another s/w or some sw energy above it...I dunno know what it's doing, but it's vastly different than 6z h5

Laughable these differences. That said, crazy to look back at h5 from 18z yesterday which was a lot worse than this even. Slower evolution from the other models, namely euro may be producing the gfs being in purgatory this run. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Left most of the s/w back  with another s/w or some sw energy above it...I dunno know what it's doing, but it's vastly different than 6z h5

Its in between its 18z run yesterday and the rest of the models with the SW low. Just need to hope its wrong

[stormtracker]

Look on the bright side...the GFS was going to have a burp or two, might as well get it out of the way now, right?  

At any rate...I'm unmoved.   Wanna see what the rest of the suite has to say

[stormtracker]

It's trash after that...no follow up...getting suppressed

[Terpeast]

Don't think its any surprise AI GFS would be similar to GFS since its based off the same initial model conditions

[87storms]

4 minutes ago, andyhb said:

GFS is very heavily suppressed. That's the number one failure mode with this storm by far with a near record strength Arctic high to the north.

I could absolutely see this being a delayed, but not denied storm where we end up cashing in on the 2nd half when the southern stream wave enters the gulf. Pd2 was kind of a two parter as well with a very minor event that Friday evening before the big show Sunday morning.

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Laughable these differences. That said, crazy to look back at h5 from 18z yesterday which was a lot worse than this even. Slower evolution from the other models, namely euro may be producing the gfs being in purgatory this run. 

It's just weird to me. Because the Euro used to be the model that liked to hold back energy. It is becoming even harder to understand model trends since the upgrades. 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Don't think its any surprise AI GFS would be similar to GFS since its based off the same initial model conditions

6z AI GFS was lowkey a disaster, but I held my tongue. Just gotta hope the GFS is lost (as usual)

[stormtracker]

So far, doesn't look like the GGEM is smoking that GFS crack rock

[LP08]

To give an idea to those not watching the models.  20 in charlotte NC, 10 or so in richmond.  Basically a whiff north of DC.

[mob1]

At hour 78, CMC is also holding that energy back a bit compared to 0Z, though we'll see how it progresses from here as it's not a huge shift. 

[Nomz]

Except the 00z runs last night, GFS and fam have been pretty consistent keeping this towards the south area of our sub

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

At hour 78, CMC is also holding that energy back a bit compared to 0Z, though we'll see how it progresses from here. 

Not even close to what the GFS has

[SnowenOutThere]

It might manage to get a storm with the next NS at hour 140 and beyond but either way its not what we want.

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

To give an idea to those not watching the models.  20 in charlotte NC, 10 or so in richmond.  Basically a whiff north of DC.

[SnowenOutThere]

CMC is a step towards the Euro (and I guess technically the GFS but its not even in the same realm). Though I didn't love how amped it was so for now its fine for it to move slightly that way.