SnowenOutThere Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 GFS while dragging its heels a bit out west still has some interaction so it still should get the East coast storm. We're not back to the truly terrible 18z run yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massanothing Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Sucky thing about being into weather and blabbing about it is when the models start coming out and I'm clearly deep into my screen, 1200 co workers pick THEN to want to come over and ask me about the storm. Anyway, GFS looks good so far. I think Saturday could be completely dry? Try being a public school teacher who is also a weather geek...I'll get nothing taught over the next couple of days.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, Alfoman said: Was nice while it lasted GFS Can't get comfortable until we are sure the models are gonna get this part right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 All I am watching on today's run is making sure this energy ejects out properly and in some timely manner. After that, the recipe for a big hit isn't that difficult to make. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 It is interacting at 102. Might be delayed. But give enough time for lower confluence in the east. Could still be a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 There’s a reason the gfs has the lowest verification scores folks. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Could just be delayed - hr111 coming on shore Edit: looks pretty bad at 123 ngl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 Yeah, it's going to slide just south and east of us with the good stuff so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 AIGFS similarly holding back more of the baja energy, leading to a more surprised result - not surprising thus far but something to keep in mind. Don't want to see this mirrored on the rest of the suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 GFS is very heavily suppressed. That's the number one failure mode with this storm by far with a near record strength Arctic high to the north. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 Left most of the s/w back with another s/w or some sw energy above it...I dunno know what it's doing, but it's vastly different than 6z h5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Probably the way gfs looks it’s going to have a second wave late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, stormtracker said: I dunno know what it's doing, It doesn't know what it's doing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, andyhb said: GFS is very heavily suppressed. That's the number one failure mode with this storm by far with a near record strength Arctic high to the north. Agreed - looks like the GFS came in even stronger initially with that high as it's diving down (1051 mb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, stormtracker said: Left most of the s/w back with another s/w or some sw energy above it...I dunno know what it's doing, but it's vastly different than 6z h5 Laughable these differences. That said, crazy to look back at h5 from 18z yesterday which was a lot worse than this even. Slower evolution from the other models, namely euro may be producing the gfs being in purgatory this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, stormtracker said: Left most of the s/w back with another s/w or some sw energy above it...I dunno know what it's doing, but it's vastly different than 6z h5 Its in between its 18z run yesterday and the rest of the models with the SW low. Just need to hope its wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 Look on the bright side...the GFS was going to have a burp or two, might as well get it out of the way now, right? At any rate...I'm unmoved. Wanna see what the rest of the suite has to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 It's trash after that...no follow up...getting suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Don't think its any surprise AI GFS would be similar to GFS since its based off the same initial model conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 4 minutes ago, andyhb said: GFS is very heavily suppressed. That's the number one failure mode with this storm by far with a near record strength Arctic high to the north. I could absolutely see this being a delayed, but not denied storm where we end up cashing in on the 2nd half when the southern stream wave enters the gulf. Pd2 was kind of a two parter as well with a very minor event that Friday evening before the big show Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Laughable these differences. That said, crazy to look back at h5 from 18z yesterday which was a lot worse than this even. Slower evolution from the other models, namely euro may be producing the gfs being in purgatory this run. It's just weird to me. Because the Euro used to be the model that liked to hold back energy. It is becoming even harder to understand model trends since the upgrades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, Terpeast said: Don't think its any surprise AI GFS would be similar to GFS since its based off the same initial model conditions 6z AI GFS was lowkey a disaster, but I held my tongue. Just gotta hope the GFS is lost (as usual) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 So far, doesn't look like the GGEM is smoking that GFS crack rock 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 To give an idea to those not watching the models. 20 in charlotte NC, 10 or so in richmond. Basically a whiff north of DC. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 At hour 78, CMC is also holding that energy back a bit compared to 0Z, though we'll see how it progresses from here as it's not a huge shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Except the 00z runs last night, GFS and fam have been pretty consistent keeping this towards the south area of our sub Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, mob1 said: At hour 78, CMC is also holding that energy back a bit compared to 0Z, though we'll see how it progresses from here. Not even close to what the GFS has 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 It might manage to get a storm with the next NS at hour 140 and beyond but either way its not what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: To give an idea to those not watching the models. 20 in charlotte NC, 10 or so in richmond. Basically a whiff north of DC. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 CMC is a step towards the Euro (and I guess technically the GFS but its not even in the same realm). Though I didn't love how amped it was so for now its fine for it to move slightly that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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