MDScienceTeacher Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: If @Ji lived in Raleigh he would say “I want 18 to 0 in one run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 CMC with another batch developing 144 lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 130+ reading the thread, love it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 1 2 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ggem surface reminds me of 1996 with the initial extension of the trough to the north of the wave ip into KY before the transfer to the coast and an arctic high in the way. I'm cool with riding the sleet line if we can get a storm like that. In all of DC big ones, we had a period of sleet. It is what it is. BUT..I think the GGEM is doing too much since it's the only one showing this 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Sleet got all the way into central MD in the 1996 storm too. Not saying that happens. Just saying this ggem run reminds me of that storm. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Ggem surface reminds me of 1996 with the initial extension of the trough to the north of the wave ip into KY before the transfer to the coast and an arctic high in the way. Yes. Always love seeing the wave hit a wall in KY. It is as good as it gets for us. Its the CMC so I am not holding my breath. But that is about perfect for us to get destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: yeah yea, but we all know it's not gonna be that amp'd, so I'm cool with this Unless there’s a time between panels where things warm up a bit up top, we’re fine at all levels on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 i'm going to go crazyNot to weenie but that’s like a 9:1 ratio storm? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: CMC with another batch developing 144 lol Nah that’s leftover from what should’ve phased in and given us an even larger storm… I’m joking but it’s not technically impossible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Sleet got all the way into central MD in the 1996 storm too. Not saying that happens. Just saying this ggem run reminds me of that storm. I never saw sleet in 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 As always Randy ty for the PBP!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, Ji said: Not to weenie but that’s like a 9:1 ratio storm? Get out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, Ji said: Not to weenie but that’s like a 9:1 ratio storm? No, way higher. It's 1.3" of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, Ji said: Not to weenie but that’s like a 9:1 ratio storm? With that much qpf, who cares? Anyway, the weight of that much snow always compacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I literally just DoorDashed a yardstick to my house. LFG! 1 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, snowfan said: I mean this is fine Yeah, 00Z GEM looks more like those AI solutions up to this point. Where you go from "damn, are we gonna get fringed with cold smoke" to "uh oh, how close is that mix zone?" I would be more worried if I were in central-southern VA if wanting an all snow event. I do think the northerly trends will continue. ...but hopefully end at some point. Anxious to see the 00Z op ECMWF (aren't we all), but also the GFS/EC AI runs. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, bncho said: I literally just DoorDashed a yardstick to my house. LFG! So we know who to blame if this all goes south (pun intended) from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, Ji said: Not to weenie but that’s like a 9:1 ratio storm? I'd think with as cold as it's gonna get that the ratios would be higher. But with 4-5 days to go . The more accurate snow ratios I'm sure will come later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, Ji said: I never saw sleet in 96 I was in Herndon VA and it did sleet for a few hours but it was during the lull so it didn’t really cost us much accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, Ji said: I never saw sleet in 96 Same, snow all the way, and 30+ inches. A redo I'd take. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, bncho said: I literally just DoorDashed a yardstick to my house. LFG! Ugh...kiss of death bro! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, bncho said: I literally just DoorDashed a yardstick to my house. LFG! One day you'll learn about jinxes. People on these boards have dropped a grand on fancy snowblowers just to see them collect dust for nearly a decade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Ladies and gentleman… the gfs 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Not to weenie but that’s like a 9:1 ratio storm? I'd think with as cold as it's gonna get that the ratios would be higher. But with 4-5 days to go . The more accurate snow ratios I'm sure will come later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: I'd think with as cold as it's gonna get that the ratios would be higher. But with 4-5 days to go . The more accurate snow ratios I'm sure will come later Surface temps are not the ultimate determining factor for ratios though. You can be 15 degrees at the surface and have poor ratio flakes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, snowfan said: One day you'll learn about jinxes. People on these boards have dropped a grand on fancy snowblowers just to see them collect dust for nearly a decade. This^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: Yeah, 00Z GEM looks more like those AI solutions up to this point. Where you go from "damn, are we gonna get fringed with cold smoke" to "uh oh, how close is that mix zone?" I would be more worried if I were in central-southern VA if wanting an all snow event. I do think the northerly trends will continue. ...but hopefully end at some point. Anxious to see the 00Z op ECMWF (aren't we all), but also the GFS/EC AI runs. I’m at UVA and more worried about mixing than suppression though I still think it’s a long shot to get a run like the CMC. It requires both the initial phase and subsequent phase to go perfectly. The op euro or other models that have messy both constructive and destructive stream interactions seem more likely to me which keeps us all snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, TSSN+ said: Ladies and gentleman… the gfs Acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Not really worried about it, but I don't understand how this could possibly be mixing sleet in... the whole column is below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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