January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

I never saw sleet in 96

I was in Herndon VA and it did sleet for a few hours but it was during the lull so it didn’t really cost us much accumulation. 

[wxdude64]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

I never saw sleet in 96

Same, snow all the way, and 30+ inches. A redo I'd take. 

[WxMan1]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

I literally just DoorDashed a yardstick to my house. LFG! 

Ugh...kiss of death bro!

[snowfan]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

I literally just DoorDashed a yardstick to my house. LFG! 

One day you'll learn about jinxes. People on these boards have dropped a grand on fancy snowblowers just to see them collect dust for nearly a decade.

[TSSN+]

Ladies and gentleman… the gfs 

 

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Not to weenie but that’s like a 9:1 ratio storm?

 I'd think with as cold as it's gonna get that the ratios would be higher. But with 4-5 days to go .  The more accurate snow ratios I'm sure will come later 

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 I'd think with as cold as it's gonna get that the ratios would be higher. But with 4-5 days to go .  The more accurate snow ratios I'm sure will come later 

Surface temps are not the ultimate determining factor for ratios though. 

You can be 15 degrees at the surface and have poor ratio flakes. 

[Solution Man]

Just now, snowfan said:

One day you'll learn about jinxes. People on these boards have dropped a grand on fancy snowblowers just to see them collect dust for nearly a decade.

This^

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

Yeah, 00Z GEM looks more like those AI solutions up to this point. Where you go from "damn, are we gonna get fringed with cold smoke" to "uh oh, how close is that mix zone?"

I would be more worried if I were in central-southern VA if wanting an all snow event. I do think the northerly trends will continue. ...but hopefully end at some point. Anxious to see the 00Z op ECMWF (aren't we all), but also the GFS/EC AI runs.

I’m at UVA and more worried about mixing than suppression though I still think it’s a long shot to get a run like the CMC. It requires both the initial phase and subsequent phase to go perfectly. The op euro or other models that have messy both constructive and destructive stream interactions seem more likely to me which keeps us all snow. 

[wxdude64]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Ladies and gentleman… the gfs 

 

Acceptable.

[caviman2201]

Not really worried about it, but I don't understand how this could possibly be mixing sleet in... the whole column is below freezing

 

[clskinsfan]

Brings through more snow Monday with too. 

[Jebman]

10 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That is straight from the Dynamics textbooks 

Everything is right in the world. This is the best time to learn from the Mets. I am waaaaaay beyond happy

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Ladies and gentleman… the gfs 

 

Big time cave!!!!

[Nomz]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

I literally just DoorDashed a yardstick to my house. LFG! 

you screwed us all man

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

Surface temps are not the ultimate determining factor for ratios though. 

It’s true, you can have needles and plates at 15 degrees. That said, there looks to be a deep dgz and great forcing so ratios should actually be great in the money zone there.

[bncho]

Okay, y'all. Looking at Tomer's website, and the worst outcome right now is the AI-GFS. It drops 5-10" of snow.

[Ji]

I was in Herndon VA and it did sleet for a few hours but it was during the lull so it didn’t really cost us much accumulation. 

I was in Herndon too. I think you’re thinking of 93.

[87storms]

9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Starting to think it’s finally time I read the Northeast Snowstorms book this week. 

Got both vol 1 and 2. Outstanding book.

[wxdude64]

Just now, caviman2201 said:

I don't understand how this could possibly be mixing sleet in... the whole column is below freezing

 

It gets close at 750-700, but yeah, that should be ripping snow.

[winter_warlock]

Now Im curious if the Ukmet will show what it showed at 12z !

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, 87storms said:

Got both vol 1 and 2. Outstanding book.

I have vol 1 at uva with me but left vol 2 at home 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, wxdude64 said:

Acceptable.

I’ll allow it

[rjvanals]

Way too much early celebrating around here. We have 120 hrs for things to go wrong and every 6 hours we go from “don’t worry it’s the GFS” to the GFS is amazing

[Ji]

It gets close at 750-700, but yeah, that should be ripping snow.

So in the time frame it’s probably 10:1 right?

[stormtracker]

Shit man, imma have to stay up for euro pbp.  Laugh all you want, but I feel better with the GFS in the game.  I would have been fine without it, but Im all in on 6-10

[Ji]

Way too much early celebrating around here. We have 120 hrs for things to go wrong and every 6 hours we go from “don’t worry it’s the GFS” to the GFS is amazing

No is celebrating. It’s all observation

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

I was in Herndon too. I think you’re thinking of 93.

No 1996. Sunday afternoon. During the dry slot. Light sleet for 2-3 hours. While the cowboys were kicking the snot out of the Eagles in the playoffs in what was Randall’s last game in Philly. I remember. 

[Ji]

Shit man, imma have to stay up for euro pbp.  Laugh all you want, but I feel better with the GFS in the game.  I would have been fine without it, but Im all in on 6-10

Anything less than double digits








Will be single digits

[Ralph Wiggum]

In the past, this would be the perfect time for the Euro to pop in and suppress things just to throw a wrench. Now that we got the gfs to cave, I kind of expect it....we've done this before time and time again. Its never easy.