January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[stormtracker]

With the backing two of my other Mid Atlantic mods, gonna go ahead and do this now.   Why now?

-Because with big events like this, threads start to go to shit quick.  We do tend to get visitors believe it or not and we wanna look somewhat respectable source of info.

-Nobody cares about your superstitions.

 

So here are the rules of storm mode:

Keep banter to a bare minimum

put at least some effort into explaining your thoughts

If your posts keep disappearing, take note.

Moderation will be much stricter, but not too restrictive.  

 

 

[mappy]

Please help us keep things readable! Those of us who have mod power do have jobs and frankly, we’re all adults (mostly). Just keep things on track and informative!

Now LFG! 

[StormyClearweather]

Chilly

 

[mappy]

Ji, don’t tempt me with giving you a timeout. I swear to all above if you’re posting shit like “next” and “where’d my 30 of snow go”, I’m gonna show you the door until next week. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

So I guess an overall brief summary after today's 12Z suite (Jan. 19)...

--AI GFS, AI Euro, AI Ensembles (at least the Euro version), CMC, UKMET give us a major event HECS; AI models have been hammering this for awhile now.

--ECMWF, ECMWF ensembles look quite solid (going by previous Euro ensembles, 12Z not in yet?) for cold smoke upper-end warning level event

--GFS is the most suppressed, but 12Z from what I read earlier had some improvements perhaps in the upper levels?

--GEFS look solid, similar I think to the ECMWF ensembles.

(ETA:  Also, I recall that someone showed the CMC ensembles were likewise a big hit).

(ETA more!  the NBM also was a solid hit from earlier today.  Damn how can I forget that when I actually do development work on the damned thing!!!)

Hope that more or less is correct.

[nj2va]

12z Euro 850s are in the -10 to -15 range while 2m temps are in the upper teens during the storm.  Has 0/-1 2m temps for the low Monday morning.

LFG.

[bncho]

Just for reference

[mappy]

Just now, Paleocene said:

LFG!

Dude. Banter

[stormtracker]

Good lucks guys.  A lot of us won't make it, but we're all in this together.  If the people who sweat the 6.3 mile shifts and .5 degree temp shifts are here,  do your best to manage.  WE're going to be ok.

So the model summary is

AI's -

GFS-

Euro - 

CMC 

UKMET 

[Rvarookie]

1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said:

Chilly

 

That’s some tough cold right there. Yeesh

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

So I guess an overall brief summary after today's 12Z suite (Jan. 19)...

--AI GFS, AI Euro, AI Ensembles (at least the Euro version), CMC, UKMET give us a major event HECS; AI models have been hammering this for awhile now.

--ECMWF, ECMWF ensembles look quite solid (going by previous Euro ensembles, 12Z not in yet?) for cold smoke upper-end warning level event

--GFS is the most suppressed, but 12Z from what I read earlier had some improvements perhaps in the upper levels?

--GEFS look solid, similar I think to the ECMWF ensembles.

Hope that more or less is correct.

This one is so much more professional than mine.  But not by much.

I am starting to feel a little better, although for some reason I'm still weary of the AIs

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Dude. Banter

Sorry. Too hype. I will respect the rules and keep memes to a minimum. Been waiting for the right moment to use that one and may have been too soon.

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Sorry. Too hype. I will respect the rules and keep memes to a minimum. Been waiting for the right moment to use that one and may have been too soon.

I did laugh! 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This one is so much more professional than mine.  But not by much.

I am starting to feel a little better, although for some reason I'm still weary of the AIs

Haha, well, two minds with but a single thought!  I'm also a bit skeptical still about the AI models, maybe because it's such a potentially huge event.  But they have proven their worth in the past year or so and (as other mets have said) they do offer solid guidance for the "overall" pattern look, precip shield, that sort of thing.  Maybe not specifics like banding or small-scale features, but those are ironed out with mesoscale models.  I do like that the AIs have been hammering this consistently.

ETA:  Regardless, I'm starting to be a bit more confident that we get some kind of warning-level cold powder at least, even if it's not the crazy amounts.

[J.Mike]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Good lucks guys.  A lot of us won't make it, but we're all in this together.  If the people who sweat the 6.3 mile shifts and .5 degree temp shifts are here,  do your best to manage.  WE're going to be ok.

So the model summary is

AI's -

GFS-

Euro - 

CMC 

UKMET 

Randy and Mappy: as I have done before, I will donate $100 to the board if it snows enough to shut down Metro above ground. Do you accept my offer? (+8”)

[MillvilleWx]

Just pointing out that this setup with post-storm temperatures <10° is very much a possibility with the HP anchored to the north. This is a prolonged cold spell incoming, regardless of snowfall. Snow will only exacerbate the cold potential due to refrigeration effects. 
 

If you are in a home that takes oil or fire wood, I would start preparing to have a delivery or go restock the firewood, pellet stoves for the incoming stretch of cold. It could last a while. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Really beautiful look on the euro.  That’s just a huge area of cold powder and my gut says that it’ll probably adjust a bit further north towards the AI’s.  Finally we may have something that gets the whole region. 

[Eskimo Joe]

12z EPS has effectively shunted all the IP/ZR risk south of I-66/US 50. 

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, J.Mike said:

Randy and Mappy: as I have done before, I will donate $100 to the board if it snows enough to shut down Metro above ground. Do you accept my offer? (+8”)

Sure. I’ll send you my Venmo if so  

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, J.Mike said:

Randy and Mappy: as I have done before, I will donate $100 to the board if it snows enough to shut down Metro above ground. Do you accept my offer? (+8”)

You're missing two zeroes after the one.   But yes.  'For the board".

Katie, you said you had a Ruth Chris near you?  Board meeting.  For the board.  

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z EPS has effectively shunted all the IP/ZR risk south of I-66/US 50. 

Ok? What about precip? 

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You're missing two zeroes after the one.   But yes.  'For the board".

Katie, you said you had a Ruth Chris near you?  Board meeting.  For the board.  

There's one near me too in Fairfax I believe... and Tysons and Crystal City

[andyhb]

 

If you want a major storm, you want Tomer Burg talking like this. End of story.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

You're missing two zeroes after the one.   But yes.  'For the board".

Katie, you said you had a Ruth Chris near you?  Board meeting.  For the board.  

(Apologies for light banter here but...) Now wait a minute, isn't there some kind of emoluments clause for board moderators?!?!

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, andyhb said:

 

If you want a major storm, you want Tomer Burg talking like this. End of story.

A top 3 snowstorm all time for a lot of folks…31” IMBY at the time. Love seeing that honking from Tomer

[mappy]

Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

(Apologies for light banter here but...) Now wait a minute, isn't there some kind of emoluments clause for board moderators?!?!

No. Shhh. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Planning to start my deep dive H5 post shortly. So far all I will say is that I think with the recent set of guidance have have since passed even Feb 20 at its peak in consistency and likelihood. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Planning to start my deep dive H5 post shortly. So far all I will say is that I think with the recent set of guidance have have since passed even Feb 20 at its peak in consistency and likelihood. 

Feb 20th?

[H2O]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z EPS has effectively shunted all the IP/ZR risk south of I-66/US 50. 

How far south?  EZF or RIC?  How many members are whiffs?

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Ok? What about precip? 

Cold ai pressing in better at the mid levels. It's a great trend. All of the inland primary lows that tried to run into SW PA or northern WV are gone. Clear signal for a better transfer to the/a coastal. 

Also,