Jan 18-25 Cold Wave

[Geoboy645]

What was originally looking like a pretty standard cold wave for mid January has now become a potentially very significant cold wave for the region. Model runs are showing sub zero highs for at least the northern parts of the subforum on Friday and potentially Saturday. And some runs like the most recent GFS have daytime highs on the level of the 94,96, and 19 cold waves at least N of the IL-WI border which is extremely impressive without widespread deep snow cover. We have already had sub -30 wind chills and sub -5 daytime temps here today, and if we don't cross 20 on Wednesday we may have at least 10 days straight of sub 20 highs. 

[A-L-E-K]

hate it

[BeastFromTheEast]

7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

hate it

Fingers crossed the cold moderates a little a bit as we get closer. Friday/Saturday looks nasty across Chicagoland as of now.  
 

 

[cyclone77]

Don't like extreme cold without snow cover.  Frost goes deeeeep.

[beavis1729]

51 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said:

What was originally looking like a pretty standard cold wave for mid January has now become a potentially very significant cold wave for the region. Model runs are showing sub zero highs for at least the northern parts of the subforum on Friday and potentially Saturday. And some runs like the most recent GFS have daytime highs on the level of the 94,96, and 19 cold waves at least N of the IL-WI border which is extremely impressive without widespread deep snow cover. We have already had sub -30 wind chills and sub -5 daytime temps here today, and if we don't cross 20 on Wednesday we may have at least 10 days straight of sub 20 highs. 

Nice summary. Does anyone know of a reliable current snow cover map for the Midwest? 

Dropped to -3F here this morning, up to 5F at noon. 
 

 

[Chicago Storm]

Does anyone know of a reliable current snow cover map for the Midwest? 

https://mrcc.purdue.edu/climate_watch/DLY_SNDP_MAPS

[BeastFromTheEast]

I forgot how insane 2019 was around here. Daytime readings double-digits <0

Plus 20mph winds 
 

https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/usa/chicago/historic?month=1&year=2019

[cutlew]

-10 for a high on Friday and -20 for lows on Friday and Saturday in reach for MN and WI. Would only be the third such high temp and 10th such low temp since 1996 in MSP. Interestingly last year we had a -19 morning with only 1" of snow on the ground. The clippers of the past/upcoming week should help this time around.

Looked through at the Madison WI records which surprised me, it looks to be only their 8th (and possibly 9th) subzero high temperature since 1996 and first time since then with back-to-back days high temp below zero. And there have only been three days with a low of -20 or less in the same period.

Gonna be a while before we surpass the cold and wind chill of 2019 though.

[TimChgo9]

Overnight lows in the single digits here at KLIN, with daily highs for the weekend in the low to mid teens.  Seems the big storm that I have been hearing about misses this area completely. 

[A-L-E-K]

real loser shit imo

 

 

[Brian D]

I compiled records for my area for the 23rd-24th. I'd say, as of tonight's model potential, that low max records have a good chance of falling. Friday am lows may reach top 5, but there may be a light wind keeping temps up a little with mixing. But with HP centered over the W Lakes Sat am, radiational cooling will drop temps under calm conditions pretty fast, especially at sunrise where a 3-5 dF drop could occur. If, perchance, the winds are calm Friday am, too, expect the same.

 

[sbnwx85]

No bugs at least

[Roger Smith]

Not sure if Toronto would see the full depth of cold in this outbreak, but anyway these are the records, I was going to strip out the high records but perhaps they will be interesting too, note the record warmth during the first portion of the Chicago blizzard of 1967, but eventually a heavy sleet to snow storm developed on 26th into 27th across Ontario also:

<<< Daily Records for Toronto (downtown) 1840-2025 >>>

Date ______ High max _____________ Low min ____________ high min _____________ Low max

Jan 20 __ 54 F __ 2006 _____-10 F __ 1892 ____ 40 F (1995) ______ 6 F (2019)

Jan 21 __ 56 F __ 1906 _____ -13 F __ 1857 _____ 40 F (1906) ______ 1 F (1943)

Jan 22 __ 57 F __ 1906 _____ -20 F __ 1857 _____ 44 F (1906) _____ -11 F (1857)

Jan 23 __ 57 F __ 1967 _____ -17 F __ 1857 _____ 40 F (1967) _____ -2 F (1882)

Jan 24 __ 57 F __ 1909 _____ -17 F __ 1872 _____ 44 F (1909) ______ 2 F (1884)

Jan 25 __ 61 F __ 1967 _____ -13 F __ 1884,1945_ 40 F (1916) ______ 4 F (1920, 45) __ (max also 60F 1950)

Jan 26 __ 53 F __ 1950 _____ -17 F __ 1927 _____ 41 F (1858) _____ -4 F (1927)

Jan 27 __ 51 F __ 2002 _____ -11 F __ 1925,27___ 41 F (1974) ______ 0 F (1925)

Jan 28 __ 52 F __ 1916 _____ -13 F __ 1873 _____ 41 F (2002) ______ 4 F (1885)

Jan 29 __ 54 F __ 1914 _____ -18 F __ 1873 _____ 38 F (2006) ______ 3 F (1873)

Jan 30 __ 56 F __ 2013 _____ -14 F __ 1898,1908_ 44 F (2013) ______ 4 F (1908)

Jan 31 __ 54 F __ 1988 _____ -18 F __ 1920 ______ 45 F (1988) ______ 7 F (1920)

Temperatures in these records (extracted from my thread in climate forum) were observed in F deg to 1978 and have been converted from C deg observations since 1978.

The 1857 cold wave was also associated with a coastal snowstorm. There was also a very cold set of readings on Jan 18, 1857 (max 0, min -18) before a slight warmup and the record cold plunge that began on Jan 21st. These 1857 readings were before a lot of long-term U.S. data sets but at Providence RI, Alexis Caswell also recorded severe cold and a blizzard  in Jan 1857. His records include -9F on Jan 18, 18.0" snow Jan 19th, and -14F on both Jan 23 and 24. 

I hope history does not repeat fully because in Feb 1857 there were destructive floods in Ontario and New England as temperatures went to the other extreme and heavy rain combined with snow melt. Those events were mainly in the second quarter of the month.  

[madwx]

Lows of -3, -8 and -11 the past three days respectively. Looks like the cold should peak Friday

[A-L-E-K]

not enjoying this at all

[Stevo6899]

[IWXwx]

8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

not enjoying this at all

Expect a rebuttal from Beavis

[OrdIowPitMsp]

-5 this morning, nothing to write home about so far. 

[michsnowfreak]

2F with wind chills hovering at -15 to -20 at DTW this morning. Looks tundra-like outside with the frozen, drifted landscape and the weak looking sun. 

[Brian D]

-10's to -20's this morning. -28 near Hoyt Lakes up on the Iron Range is the coldest I can find.

[Brian D]

Found a -26 in Lind, WI, which is NE of Rush City, MN near the St. Croix river. 

[Brian D]

9 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

No bugs at least

There's always a silver lining somewhere  

[Brian D]

Was boiling water yesterday. This bitter air is desert dry. Some of you may wish to do that in the next days to keep humidity up.

[sbnwx85]

55 minutes ago, Brian D said:

Was boiling water yesterday. This bitter air is desert dry. Some of you may wish to do that in the next days to keep humidity up.

Sage advice

[A-L-E-K]

steam 4 life

[WestMichigan]

Whole house humidifier for the win

[cyclone77]

-2 this morning, but felt almost mild with the calm winds compared to yesterday's 35mph winds.