January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[WNC_Fort]

Opinions and takes are so varied this morning it’s hard to keep up. If this truly busts on the low side, I’ll be grateful. But the public reaction in NC/SC would not be good. 

[NEGA_Dawg]

20 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

The latest RAP.

I have been trying all week to understand these model runs. What time is the end frame in this run? 

[gman]

12 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

Opinions and takes are so varied this morning it’s hard to keep up. If this truly busts on the low side, I’ll be grateful. But the public reaction in NC/SC would not be good. 

I pray this storm is a bust, and that the public is mad because they didn't lose power for a week and people didn't die because of no heat. 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

It’s not over yet but the trend continues to be less of a prolonged ZR situation. Looks also like there won’t be much snow/sleet accumulation in the Triangle region.


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[Brick Tamland]

HRRR

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, NEGA_Dawg said:

I have been trying all week to understand these model runs. What time is the end frame in this run? 

UTC time takes some getting used to but memorize these #s. Daylight savings moves them forward one hour but during winter it looks like this:

0z = 7pm

6z = 1am

12z = 7am

18z = 1pm

 

[SnowGoose69]

The 3KM NAM does bear some similarities to the RAP as far as precip but the RAP seems to not even see the wedge.  At least the 3km NAM has the wedge back well south and west of ATL 10-15Z tomorrow.  The scary thing for the ATL metro is how far back the NAM has wanted to push the wedge as far as lateness into Sunday, if that verifies and IF significant ZR happens there will be way less time or chance to melt things off before winds pick up.  But the fact now it has things so mild til 10Z is concerning on the bust end.  I am not confident at all in any forecast I have out, even NYC it may be mainly sleet after 20Z tomorrow

[Brick Tamland]

7 minutes ago, NEGA_Dawg said:

I have been trying all week to understand these model runs. What time is the end frame in this run? 

6 am tomorrow.

[Orange county]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

6 am tomorrow.

Which is roughly half the storm ,right?

[Snowncanes]

Brad P says he’s not buying the scattered nature of precip showing up on the models. Doesn’t think they’re handling the cad/lift well. Even if precip isn’t showing up on radar, we all know how cad days are always misty/drizzle. I don’t think we are missing out on this in the cad favored regions.

[NorthHillsWx]

We must’ve completely lost our blocking. This thing just wants to ride north 

[Brick Tamland]

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

We must’ve completely lost our blocking. This thing just wants to ride north 

[stormwatcherJ]

9 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

We must’ve completely lost our blocking. This thing just wants to ride north 

So Georgia, SC, and southern half of NC probably get next to nothing?

[Tony Sisk]

45 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

Opinions and takes are so varied this morning it’s hard to keep up. If this truly busts on the low side, I’ll be grateful. But the public reaction in NC/SC would not be good. 

We live in an over-reaction culture now. There will be that regardless of what happens. Better to be prepared. Being prepared, you lose nothing. If this becomes a bust, I would consider that answered prayer.

[kvegas-wx]

No flurries all the way back to Winston.  Radar just keeps drying up.  Dewpoints and cold winning this early battle.  I expect we will lose all of the QPF before Oz to virga.  That really limits this to a 12 hour event.  We're dodging bullets in real time here.

[stormwatcherJ]

3 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

We live in an over-reaction culture now. There will be that regardless of what happens. Better to be prepared. Being prepared, you lose nothing. If this becomes a bust, I would consider that answered prayer.

But but what will I do with all this beer and liquor??

[PackGrad05]

28 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

Brad P says he’s not buying the scattered nature of precip showing up on the models. Doesn’t think they’re handling the cad/lift well. Even if precip isn’t showing up on radar, we all know how cad days are always misty/drizzle. I don’t think we are missing out on this in the cad favored regions.

This is the difference between a meteorologist and modelologist.  He knows the science and how to use the tools, but doesn't just recite the tools.  

[UpstateSCBud]

5 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

We live in an over-reaction culture now. There will be that regardless of what happens. Better to be prepared. Being prepared, you lose nothing. If this becomes a bust, I would consider that answered prayer.

Yes, better to be prepared. That being said however, some people being upset about this could be very warranted. I could see that being the case with people on tight budgets who may have spent a lot of their money on preparation for a storm that doesn’t happen. I’d be frustrated in that situation. 

[SouthboundYank]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

New GFS has this by tomorrow morning. Very light 

This could cause some potential cliff-jumping to happen in the MA forum...already is, from the look of it. I get it, I just moved from there after going through God-knows-how-many rug pulls over the past three decades. Of course, the dire model-based predictions of a couple feet of snow earlier in the week in NoVA have been reduced to MAYBE (and it's a reach) 9-12" with a lot of mixing coming tomorrow afternoon. But that's just MA climo.

For my part, I'm done with rug pulls...Horry County historically seems to have just the right amount of winter wx I want to deal with the rest of my life, which is little to none at all.    However, I remain sensitive to NC/SC folks who still want some winter wx, and I'll always root for y'all.

1 hour ago, WNC_Fort said:

Opinions and takes are so varied this morning it’s hard to keep up. If this truly busts on the low side, I’ll be grateful. But the public reaction in NC/SC would not be good. 

49 minutes ago, gman said:

I pray this storm is a bust, and that the public is mad because they didn't lose power for a week and people didn't die because of no heat. 

The panic-inducing headlines from print/broadcast media have been over the top since Monday of this past week. Complicating that, is the overabundance of model-hugging, dime-a-dozen hobbyist weather nerds out on Facebook, X and other platforms, who predict "winter Armageddon" based on clown maps or every other model run. Our NoVA friends sent us video of Costco and Walmart locations being CLEANED OUT of so many items on their shelves. I mean...c'mon, folks.

All of that is the primary reason I've tuned/blocked all of that noise out, and just come here to AmWx to lurk and learn.

[BooneWX]

56 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said:

Opinions and takes are so varied this morning it’s hard to keep up. If this truly busts on the low side, I’ll be grateful. But the public reaction in NC/SC would not be good. 

Been juggling that last sentence in my head. Most people are too illiterate to see anything other than “snow” in the forecast, so even 3” of freezing rain and the electric grid laying on the ground would be a bust to them because their iPhone guaranteed it. 

[Snow dog]

8 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

We live in an over-reaction culture now. There will be that regardless of what happens. Better to be prepared. Being prepared, you lose nothing. If this becomes a bust, I would consider that answered prayer.

Agree 100%- I’ll gladly keep my power here!   I guess my only beef is the complete and utter garbage that these models are.  I really think the US government needs to invest some serious federal dollars to improve them.  I swear, the Mets during my childhood here in the upstate (Charlie Gertz!) were MUCH better with MUCH less!  
 

Why is that???

[msuwx]

13 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

No flurries all the way back to Winston.  Radar just keeps drying up.  Dewpoints and cold winning this early battle.  I expect we will lose all of the QPF before Oz to virga.  That really limits this to a 12 hour event.  We're dodging bullets in real time here.

There wasn’t any QPF prior to 0z to lose east of the mountains on most modeling. 

[NEGA_Dawg]

I’ve worried about this icemaggedon all week. I had a truckload of wood delivered last night, and the pantry is stocked with grab-and-go food. I’d love it if this storm completely busted.

I remember back before the internet. I watched the morning and evening weather, listened to NOAA weather radio, and went on with my day. Now, with the internet, it feels like 24/7 fear porn most of the time.

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

I’ve worried about this icemaggedon all week. I had a truckload of wood delivered last night, and the pantry is stocked with grab-and-go food. I’d love it if this storm completely busted.
I remember back before the internet. I watched the morning and evening weather, listened to NOAA weather radio, and went on with my day. Now, with the internet, it feels like 24/7 fear porn most of the time.

I had a weather radio! It was awesome!!


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[stormwatcherJ]

1 minute ago, Snow dog said:

Agree 100%- I’ll gladly keep my power here!   I guess my only beef is the complete and utter garbage that these models are.  I really think the US government needs to invest some serious federal dollars to improve them.  I swear, the Mets during my childhood here in the upstate (Charlie Gertz!) were MUCH better with MUCH less!  
 

Why is that???

My grandfather was a farmer in southwestern NC and was better at forecasting the weather than computers in 2026. 

[cold air aloft]

8 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Agree 100%- I’ll gladly keep my power here!   I guess my only beef is the complete and utter garbage that these models are.  I really think the US government needs to invest some serious federal dollars to improve them.  I swear, the Mets during my childhood here in the upstate (Charlie Gertz!) were MUCH better with MUCH less!  
 

Why is that???

I think it’s like analytics in sports, we have all of this new technology to rely on that some people forget that life experiences and common sense are still worth something. There is still a place for the cagey, veteran baseball manager who will use analytics to a point, but still rely on his gut when to make a pitching change. Same with weather forecasters, models and data are wonderful tools, but you also need to rely on knowing how basic climatology works in your backyard. Just my two cents.

[RaleighNC]

28 in Raleigh. fully cloudy with high cirrus

[wncsnow]

Euro coming in weaker with CAD

[kvegas-wx]

18 minutes ago, msuwx said:

There wasn’t any QPF prior to 0z to lose east of the mountains on most modeling. 

Purely focused on radar OBS now kind sir!  Good to know you are here and watching out for us.  I'm looking specifically at the band headed into eastern TN thats getting crushed by these low DPs.  Seems the initial "finger" of moisture that was showing up on a few models doesnt stand a chance.