January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[WXNewton]

18z NAM says, I am going start a pep rally Friday morning for the big game on Saturday. Like what the heck is the NAM thinking??

[wncsnow]

Most models have that piece of energy, but it's strung out and probably too warm for anything except rain or mix 

[olafminesaw]

This was the surface depiction for the January 2022 sleet bomb. This stayed all sleet and snow in the triad (I think a little light ZR to end, but nothing significant). Just goes to show what a strong surface high will do for you. It seems very unlikely that Raleigh and points N & W will have a changeover to ZR for any significant amount of time. The question is will it be a 4-6" sleet bomb or a historic snowstorm

[eyewall]

12 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Just your typical weenie walking the edges of the cliff as they live and die on every model run madness 

It is anxiety talking for sure because this is make or break for the winter after years of paltry events.

[GaWx]

 1” of ZR at ATL (or anywhere) would be bad enough. That hasn’t happened at ATL since 2/12/2014 and that much was only from Hartsfield S and mainly E. (That’s the one that killed the Eisenhower tree at Augusta National). Other than the terrible 1/1973 icestorm, which had temps only barely below 32, the last I could find giving ATL 2”+ was the devastating ~2” icestorm of 12/28-29/1935. Temps did drop into the 20s for part of that and probably as cold as mid 20s for the coldest, similar to the 12Z Euro. I read ATL news articles on this 30 years ago at the downtown library. It was horrible.

 So, essentially the 12Z Euro is calling for the worst combo of heaviest/very cold ZR at ATL in 90 years! Thus, of course it would be correct to bet on it not being as bad as modeled based on history. But unfortunately there’s a small chance it could actually happen like 90 years ago. Let’s hope not!

Link to ATL day by day historical data:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=ffc

@suzook@dsaur

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, eyewall said:

It is anxiety talking for sure because this is make or break for the winter after years of paltry events.

If we got 2”+ QPF with temps less than 28 throughout and less than 6” frozen this would be an epic epic fail 

[BooneWX]

20 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

The Euro showed 10 inches for Raleigh and the GFS had 17 inches, but the board morale is that of a soup-line snow-weenie.

Reasonable fear of a rug pull. So many of us have been heart broken for too long lol.

[Stebaney]

All the cool people are north of Raleigh.

Absolutely not. I’m in K’dale and extremely cool. Just never get snow

[Tony Sisk]

10 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Most models have that piece of energy, but it's strung out and probably too warm for anything except rain or mix 

are you NAM ?

[neatlburbwthrguy]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 1” of ZR at ATL (or anywhere) would be bad enough. That hasn’t happened at ATL since 2/12/2014 and that much was only from Hartsfield S and mainly E. (That’s the one that killed the Eisenhower tree at Augusta National). Other than the terrible 1/1973 icestorm, which had temps only barely below 32, the last I could find giving ATL 2”+ was the devastating ~2” icestorm of 12/28-29/1935. Temps did drop into the 20s for part of that and probably as cold as mid 20s for the coldest, similar to the 12Z Euro. I read ATL news articles on this 30 years ago at the downtown library. It was horrible.

 So, essentially the 12Z Euro is calling for the worst combo of heaviest/very cold ZR at ATL in 90 years! Thus, of course it would be correct to bet on it not being as bad as modeled based on history. But unfortunately there’s a small chance it could actually happen like 90 years ago. Let’s hope not!

Link to ATL day by day historical data:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=ffc

@suzook@dsaur

My grandparents talk about the 1935 storm.  Sounds like it was terrible, trees came tumbling down.  So if we somehow escape this terrible freezing rain forecast it would be because ATL gets more sleet/snow than forecasted now or because temps go above 32 and we get plain cold rain?

[BooneWX]

.

[CentralNC]

RAH still have not updated their discussion this afternoon. I guess those boys are pretty busy...

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

My grandparents talk about the 1935 storm.  Sounds like it was terrible, trees came tumbling down.  So if we somehow escape this terrible freezing rain forecast it would be because ATL gets more sleet/snow than forecasted now or because temps go above 32 and we get plain cold rain?

Either scenario could be an escape path due largely to 500 mb/track changes. Or qpf could drop substantially due to track change and/or moisture content dropping. Always so many variables this far out. I think the most likely help would be from sleet replacing a lot of the ZR.

[HWY316wx]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Either scenario could be an escape path due largely to 500 mb/track changes. Or qpf could drop substantially due to track change and/or moisture content dropping. I think the most likely help would be from sleet replacing a lot of the ZR.

I'm in the typical CAD zone and I am praying for sleet or snow.  Just do not want that ZR junk.  Like I told a friend of mine, if I cut the EURO numbers in half, we are still in a deep, deep mess.

[CentralNC]

7 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

RAH still have not updated their discussion this afternoon. I guess those boys are pretty busy...

They just did!

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RAH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

[NEGa]

For the most part, I leave the posts and model discussion to those who are much more knowledgeable.  However, after many years there are several take aways from past experience.  The storms are almost never as bad as the models show.  ice and snow amounts are usually less (not necessary always, but they have seemed to be lately lol)

We have a storm to follow - which could be a huge storm.  that is exciting enough, but yes, it could get taken away so managing excitement is good at this point. 

Fortunately,  I enjoy all types of winter weather.  would I rather have a bunch of snow? yes of course.  however (this is more particularly for the NE GA area) many, if not most, of the storms - no matter how forecasted, follow a pattern of an initial snow thump, then some sleet and freezing rain. That seems to be the usual storm around here - of course a bigger thump of snow is always better

Also, this one seems to have cold temps after the storm rather than the usual warm up.  If so what falls could stick around which is always exciting

 

[eyewall]

4 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

They just did!

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RAH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

It certainly won't east anyone's anxiety lol.

[eyewall]

From RAH:

All of the above factors combined with bitterly cold and dry air
continuously being drawn south into the Carolinas from the Arctic
high moving east from the Great Lakes into Upstate NY are likely to
result in a moisture-laden and potentially long lasting winter storm
across central NC from Saturday into Sunday. Precipitation will move
in from the west on Saturday morning and afternoon, potentially on
the lighter side initially, with the heaviest likely on Saturday
night and early Sunday, tapering off from west to east sometime
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. There is still uncertainty on
timing with the 12z ECMWF a bit slower compared to the GFS. GFS and
ECMWF ensemble mean QPF is generally in the 1.5 to 2 inch range, and
with very cold air firmly entrenched at the surface, all of it is
likely to be frozen across central NC, whether that be snow or ice.
The main question that has to be answered is how strong the push of
warmer air is several thousand feet above the surface, which almost
always occurs in these setups across central NC. The latest GFS is
farther south with the 850 mb front and thus depicts more snow
compared to the ECMWF, but this has been going back and forth, and
their ensemble guidance has generally been a bit warmer/less bullish
with snowfall. So an all snow event across the entire region is very
unlikely, but the most favored area for that climatologically would
be along and north of the I-85 corridor. This is where NBM
probabilities for 6+ inches of snowfall are in the 60-80% range.
Meanwhile NBM probabilities of 0.25+ inches of freezing rain are in
the 60-80% range across the southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and
central/southern Coastal Plain. Significant accumulations of sleet
will also be possible between where the highest freezing rain and
snow amounts are. In addition to major travel issues, significant
tree damage and power outages may occur especially where the highest
ice accumulations occur. While details on specific amounts are still
uncertain, confidence is increasing in a major winter storm across
central NC, and it is imperative to continue staying tuned for the
latest updates as the forecast is likely to change.

[franklin NCwx]

Hopefully, as we head into the evening and night runs we see southern energy eject slower. It will be best for our forum if the northern jet is out ahead of the Baja low. That will flattened the flow, keep heights from rising as much in the SE. Then the Baja low will eject similar to the 12z gfs run.

[NorthHillsWx]

This is the stage in tracking where initial expectations can be set. If you live north of Va line your expectation should be all snow and possibly heavy amounts. For most of NC chances are high you mix at some point so determining timing, degree of mixing, and if you go all the way to ZR will be critical. For SC and Georgia this looks like a ZR storm. Maybe the upstate can score on the initial WAA or the wedge is cold enough for sleet. Worried about further north trends with thermals. I’ve seen models throw out 6-8 hour thumps of snow just for NAM to come in and cut that time in a third. Something to watch. Those are my thoughts at this point 

[wxdawg10]

14 minutes ago, eyewall said:

It certainly won't east anyone's anxiety lol.

I mean..sounds like what we have known. Initial Thump of snow then a mix.

Nothing new

 

[btownheel]

18z NAM says, I am going start a pep rally Friday morning for the big game on Saturday. Like what the heck is the NAM thinking??

That’s like Midnight Yell for this board.


.

[NorthHillsWx]

One other fail mode to watch for- if this is a miller B and there is a transfer to the coast there will likely be a dry slot that sets up during the process

[BooneWX]

Snowier icon run

[PackGrad05]

[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]]" timestamp="[emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][
True.
Wral just updated their impacts and said sledding will be “possible” in the triangle but still watching.

At this point I’m predicting 1-2 of snow for southern wake with sleet and freezing rain on top. Hard crunchy mess.


.

[Jimbo!]

Can’t wait to see what data gets fed into the models tonight and tomorrow. I have my pre op tomorrow at SOVAH Danville and I’m not even sure why anymore. Maybe I can get one of those sled dog teams from Greenland to get us all there Monday


.

[NorthHillsWx]

9 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Snowier icon run

Idk, looks further north to me 

[PackGrad05]

I am currently going 1-2 inches of snow for southern wake and then a good amount of sleet and fzra on top.
Still very concerned with too much mixing for wake.
EPS only gives 60 percent chance of 3 inches for Raleigh.


.

[olafminesaw]

I think the GFS is going to come out a bit more amped. HP isn't pushing as far south through 60 hrs

[franklin NCwx]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

I think the GFS is going to come out a bit more amped. HP isn't pushing as far south through 60 hrs

Very little change in the upper levels