WXNewton Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18z NAM says, I am going start a pep rally Friday morning for the big game on Saturday. Like what the heck is the NAM thinking?? 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Most models have that piece of energy, but it's strung out and probably too warm for anything except rain or mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago This was the surface depiction for the January 2022 sleet bomb. This stayed all sleet and snow in the triad (I think a little light ZR to end, but nothing significant). Just goes to show what a strong surface high will do for you. It seems very unlikely that Raleigh and points N & W will have a changeover to ZR for any significant amount of time. The question is will it be a 4-6" sleet bomb or a historic snowstorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 12 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Just your typical weenie walking the edges of the cliff as they live and die on every model run madness It is anxiety talking for sure because this is make or break for the winter after years of paltry events. 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1” of ZR at ATL (or anywhere) would be bad enough. That hasn’t happened at ATL since 2/12/2014 and that much was only from Hartsfield S and mainly E. (That’s the one that killed the Eisenhower tree at Augusta National). Other than the terrible 1/1973 icestorm, which had temps only barely below 32, the last I could find giving ATL 2”+ was the devastating ~2” icestorm of 12/28-29/1935. Temps did drop into the 20s for part of that and probably as cold as mid 20s for the coldest, similar to the 12Z Euro. I read ATL news articles on this 30 years ago at the downtown library. It was horrible. So, essentially the 12Z Euro is calling for the worst combo of heaviest/very cold ZR at ATL in 90 years! Thus, of course it would be correct to bet on it not being as bad as modeled based on history. But unfortunately there’s a small chance it could actually happen like 90 years ago. Let’s hope not! Link to ATL day by day historical data: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=ffc @suzook@dsaur 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, eyewall said: It is anxiety talking for sure because this is make or break for the winter after years of paltry events. If we got 2”+ QPF with temps less than 28 throughout and less than 6” frozen this would be an epic epic fail 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 20 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: The Euro showed 10 inches for Raleigh and the GFS had 17 inches, but the board morale is that of a soup-line snow-weenie. Reasonable fear of a rug pull. So many of us have been heart broken for too long lol. 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebaney Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago All the cool people are north of Raleigh.Absolutely not. I’m in K’dale and extremely cool. Just never get snow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 10 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Most models have that piece of energy, but it's strung out and probably too warm for anything except rain or mix are you NAM ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, GaWx said: 1” of ZR at ATL (or anywhere) would be bad enough. That hasn’t happened at ATL since 2/12/2014 and that much was only from Hartsfield S and mainly E. (That’s the one that killed the Eisenhower tree at Augusta National). Other than the terrible 1/1973 icestorm, which had temps only barely below 32, the last I could find giving ATL 2”+ was the devastating ~2” icestorm of 12/28-29/1935. Temps did drop into the 20s for part of that and probably as cold as mid 20s for the coldest, similar to the 12Z Euro. I read ATL news articles on this 30 years ago at the downtown library. It was horrible. So, essentially the 12Z Euro is calling for the worst combo of heaviest/very cold ZR at ATL in 90 years! Thus, of course it would be correct to bet on it not being as bad as modeled based on history. But unfortunately there’s a small chance it could actually happen like 90 years ago. Let’s hope not! Link to ATL day by day historical data: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=ffc @suzook@dsaur My grandparents talk about the 1935 storm. Sounds like it was terrible, trees came tumbling down. So if we somehow escape this terrible freezing rain forecast it would be because ATL gets more sleet/snow than forecasted now or because temps go above 32 and we get plain cold rain? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago RAH still have not updated their discussion this afternoon. I guess those boys are pretty busy... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said: My grandparents talk about the 1935 storm. Sounds like it was terrible, trees came tumbling down. So if we somehow escape this terrible freezing rain forecast it would be because ATL gets more sleet/snow than forecasted now or because temps go above 32 and we get plain cold rain? Either scenario could be an escape path due largely to 500 mb/track changes. Or qpf could drop substantially due to track change and/or moisture content dropping. Always so many variables this far out. I think the most likely help would be from sleet replacing a lot of the ZR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: Either scenario could be an escape path due largely to 500 mb/track changes. Or qpf could drop substantially due to track change and/or moisture content dropping. I think the most likely help would be from sleet replacing a lot of the ZR. I'm in the typical CAD zone and I am praying for sleet or snow. Just do not want that ZR junk. Like I told a friend of mine, if I cut the EURO numbers in half, we are still in a deep, deep mess. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 7 minutes ago, CentralNC said: RAH still have not updated their discussion this afternoon. I guess those boys are pretty busy... They just did! https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RAH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago For the most part, I leave the posts and model discussion to those who are much more knowledgeable. However, after many years there are several take aways from past experience. The storms are almost never as bad as the models show. ice and snow amounts are usually less (not necessary always, but they have seemed to be lately lol) We have a storm to follow - which could be a huge storm. that is exciting enough, but yes, it could get taken away so managing excitement is good at this point. Fortunately, I enjoy all types of winter weather. would I rather have a bunch of snow? yes of course. however (this is more particularly for the NE GA area) many, if not most, of the storms - no matter how forecasted, follow a pattern of an initial snow thump, then some sleet and freezing rain. That seems to be the usual storm around here - of course a bigger thump of snow is always better Also, this one seems to have cold temps after the storm rather than the usual warm up. If so what falls could stick around which is always exciting 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, CentralNC said: They just did! https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RAH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off It certainly won't east anyone's anxiety lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago From RAH: All of the above factors combined with bitterly cold and dry air continuously being drawn south into the Carolinas from the Arctic high moving east from the Great Lakes into Upstate NY are likely to result in a moisture-laden and potentially long lasting winter storm across central NC from Saturday into Sunday. Precipitation will move in from the west on Saturday morning and afternoon, potentially on the lighter side initially, with the heaviest likely on Saturday night and early Sunday, tapering off from west to east sometime Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. There is still uncertainty on timing with the 12z ECMWF a bit slower compared to the GFS. GFS and ECMWF ensemble mean QPF is generally in the 1.5 to 2 inch range, and with very cold air firmly entrenched at the surface, all of it is likely to be frozen across central NC, whether that be snow or ice. The main question that has to be answered is how strong the push of warmer air is several thousand feet above the surface, which almost always occurs in these setups across central NC. The latest GFS is farther south with the 850 mb front and thus depicts more snow compared to the ECMWF, but this has been going back and forth, and their ensemble guidance has generally been a bit warmer/less bullish with snowfall. So an all snow event across the entire region is very unlikely, but the most favored area for that climatologically would be along and north of the I-85 corridor. This is where NBM probabilities for 6+ inches of snowfall are in the 60-80% range. Meanwhile NBM probabilities of 0.25+ inches of freezing rain are in the 60-80% range across the southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and central/southern Coastal Plain. Significant accumulations of sleet will also be possible between where the highest freezing rain and snow amounts are. In addition to major travel issues, significant tree damage and power outages may occur especially where the highest ice accumulations occur. While details on specific amounts are still uncertain, confidence is increasing in a major winter storm across central NC, and it is imperative to continue staying tuned for the latest updates as the forecast is likely to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Hopefully, as we head into the evening and night runs we see southern energy eject slower. It will be best for our forum if the northern jet is out ahead of the Baja low. That will flattened the flow, keep heights from rising as much in the SE. Then the Baja low will eject similar to the 12z gfs run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago This is the stage in tracking where initial expectations can be set. If you live north of Va line your expectation should be all snow and possibly heavy amounts. For most of NC chances are high you mix at some point so determining timing, degree of mixing, and if you go all the way to ZR will be critical. For SC and Georgia this looks like a ZR storm. Maybe the upstate can score on the initial WAA or the wedge is cold enough for sleet. Worried about further north trends with thermals. I’ve seen models throw out 6-8 hour thumps of snow just for NAM to come in and cut that time in a third. Something to watch. Those are my thoughts at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 14 minutes ago, eyewall said: It certainly won't east anyone's anxiety lol. I mean..sounds like what we have known. Initial Thump of snow then a mix. Nothing new 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18z NAM says, I am going start a pep rally Friday morning for the big game on Saturday. Like what the heck is the NAM thinking??That’s like Midnight Yell for this board.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago One other fail mode to watch for- if this is a miller B and there is a transfer to the coast there will likely be a dry slot that sets up during the process Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 56 minutes ago Share Posted 56 minutes ago Snowier icon run 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted 53 minutes ago Share Posted 53 minutes ago 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Wral just updated their impacts and said sledding will be “possible” in the triangle but still watching. At this point I’m predicting 1-2 of snow for southern wake with sleet and freezing rain on top. Hard crunchy mess. . 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo! Posted 52 minutes ago Author Share Posted 52 minutes ago Can’t wait to see what data gets fed into the models tonight and tomorrow. I have my pre op tomorrow at SOVAH Danville and I’m not even sure why anymore. Maybe I can get one of those sled dog teams from Greenland to get us all there Monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 46 minutes ago Share Posted 46 minutes ago 9 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Snowier icon run Idk, looks further north to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted 43 minutes ago Share Posted 43 minutes ago I am currently going 1-2 inches of snow for southern wake and then a good amount of sleet and fzra on top. Still very concerned with too much mixing for wake. EPS only gives 60 percent chance of 3 inches for Raleigh. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 43 minutes ago Share Posted 43 minutes ago I think the GFS is going to come out a bit more amped. HP isn't pushing as far south through 60 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted 41 minutes ago Share Posted 41 minutes ago 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: I think the GFS is going to come out a bit more amped. HP isn't pushing as far south through 60 hrs Very little change in the upper levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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