January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[yotaman]

33 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Ethan put out his three possibilities

 

 

The one scenario he missed is if the low slides well east of the coast.

[KChuck]

30 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

It’s beautiful

I'll pass on any substantial frz given a choice however! 

[PackGrad05]

FIRST CALL

[KChuck]

10 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Also sitting near Winston Salem.  Stick around a few model runs and you may not feel like this will be fun.  I think our chances of cold, quiet and dark are greater than white fluffy snow and sledding at this point.  Mis-time this phase and we wave to our snow as it heads off into the abyss, or wherever all the snow goes that we seem to be missing. 

Hush, even if you are right! 

[Occluded Front]

1 minute ago, KChuck said:

I'll pass on any substantial frz given a choice however! 

I remember the last ice storm with pines and other trees crashing all night, no power.. stores closed, no vehicle travel, EMS and fire wrecking while responding...many people had pipes burst..people had heart attacks trying to clear drives 

[ADB83]

13 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Also sitting near Winston Salem.  Stick around a few model runs and you may not feel like this will be fun.  I think our chances of cold, quiet and dark are greater than white fluffy snow and sledding at this point.  Mis-time this phase and we wave to our snow as it heads off into the abyss, or wherever all the snow goes that we seem to be missing. 

I have to admit the abyss part made me laugh. But it is certainly very possible to be fair. Several possibilities remain  on the table. But I’ll stick around to find out 

[btownheel]

Question for the group as life has intervened and I don’t follow the nuance like I used to. Does NAM still have its rep for CAD thermal profiles like it did in the day? If so, it’s going to be a huge piece of the next 72 hours or so to sort out these p-types (at least in between the stereo of 2 posters screaming “Freezing Rain…NORTH!!!” every other post.)


.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

FIRST CALL

Is this from WRAL?

[Brick Tamland]

11 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

FIRST CALL

I personally think the snow/ice mix line is going to be a little further south near the Wake border.

[Buddy1987]

5 minutes ago, btownheel said:

Question for the group as life has intervened and I don’t follow the nuance like I used to. Does NAM still have its rep for CAD thermal profiles like it did in the day? If so, it’s going to be a huge piece of the next 72 hours or so to sort out these p-types (at least in between the stereo of 2 posters screaming “Freezing Rain…NORTH!!!” every other post.)


.

Yes it still has its superiority there. 

[olafminesaw]

6 minutes ago, btownheel said:

Question for the group as life has intervened and I don’t follow the nuance like I used to. Does NAM still have its rep for CAD thermal profiles like it did in the day? If so, it’s going to be a huge piece of the next 72 hours or so to sort out these p-types (at least in between the stereo of 2 posters screaming “Freezing Rain…NORTH!!!” every other post.)


.

Absolutely, although only the hires version which goes out to 60 hours, so really until Friday-ish to get into it's range for Sunday morning (when mixing is really an issue)

[buckeyefan1]

11 minutes ago, btownheel said:

Question for the group as life has intervened and I don’t follow the nuance like I used to. Does NAM still have its rep for CAD thermal profiles like it did in the day? If so, it’s going to be a huge piece of the next 72 hours or so to sort out these p-types (at least in between the stereo of 2 posters screaming “Freezing Rain…NORTH!!!” every other post.)


.

Yes as stated above plus we’re going to have recon data being included so be prepared for the madness that will follow

[RaleighNC]

I'm so tired of being the line between fun and crap. Wake County's gradient is always ridiculous.

[Prismshine Productions]

If it phases earlier, the mid Atlantic and NE will rejoice while we weep without power. 

Checking in from Vermont, trust me, I am watching it up here due to my family being in the southern South Carolina Midlands/upper Lowcountry... 2005 Still gives me PTSD being without power for three weeks

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[KChuck]

1 minute ago, RaleighNC said:

I'm so tired of being the line between fun and crap. Wake County's gradient is always ridiculous.

It's not just Wake County! 

[Brick Tamland]

4 minutes ago, RaleighNC said:

I'm so tired of being the line between fun and crap. Wake County's gradient is always ridiculous.

All the cool people are north of Raleigh.

[lilj4425]

9 minutes ago, RaleighNC said:

I'm so tired of being the line between fun and crap. Wake County's gradient is always ridiculous.

UNC is way better than Duke. Oh…you’re talking about the weather.

[olafminesaw]

I know everyone was nervous about that Euro run, but if it played out as depicted that front end thump of snow would be epic. Over 1" per hour rates possible 

[btownheel]

I'm so tired of being the line between fun and crap. Wake County's gradient is always ridiculous.

Living below instead of above 85 is a choice.


.

[eyewall]

My initial thoughts

[buckeyefan1]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

My initial thoughts

I love it when you step out of your comfort zone for early calls

[gman]

I don't remember ever seeing a forecast like this from the GSP NWS.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Thursday Night                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           A 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Light and variable wind.

Friday

A 50 percent chance of rain, mainly before 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 51.

Friday Night

A chance of rain after 11pm, mixing with snow after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday

Snow before 2pm, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet. High near 32. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Saturday Night

Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 1am, then freezing rain and sleet. The sleet could be heavy at times. Low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Sunday

Freezing rain likely before 9am, then snow and freezing rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday Night

A chance of snow and freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[NYweatherguy]

5 minutes ago, eyewall said:

My initial thoughts

Wow, you have the sleet/snow line pretty far south. I am rooting for you to be right!

[NorthHillsWx]

We need to see some positive trends tonight for the sanity of this board but the fact remains- there will be winners and big time losers here. Losing here carries more repercussions than usual (extended outages, etc).

[StantonParkHoya]

The Euro showed 10 inches for Raleigh and the GFS had 17 inches, but the board morale is that of a soup-line snow-weenie.

[KrummWx]

[buckeyefan1]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

The Euro showed 10 inches for Raleigh and the GFS had 17 inches, but the board morale is that of a soup-line snow-weenie.

Just your typical weenie walking the edges of the cliff as they live and die on every model run madness 

[NorthHillsWx]

8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

The Euro showed 10 inches for Raleigh and the GFS had 17 inches, but the board morale is that of a soup-line snow-weenie.

I think the crippling ice storm following it is sitting on everyone’s minds taking the wind out the sails. Also the thought of the NAM driving that warm nose to the Virginia line after 3 hours is likely on everyone’s mind in this setup 

[SEwakenosnowforu]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

2018 all over again. Wake county was 8-10 inched on north end and nothing on south end

I am in fv and we did get 1/2 snow sleet before it turned to all rain!

[frazdaddy]

27 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

All the cool people are north of Raleigh.

Not all of us , anymore