First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

34 minutes ago, dryslot said:

GFS is the new Nam, Sucked everyone in then dropped you like a hot potato.

If people got sucked into phantom gfs solutions twice in 5 days, that’s on them.

This never had support to be anything other than a graze

[Boston Bulldog]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Why is everyone just punting? Even the shittiesr solutions are scraping the coast. Doesn’t take much to get accumulating snow at least to eastern areas. 

The aggregate trend over the past 24 hours is still really solid. Needs more work, but fast forward from 6z yesterday I’m sure most would take where we are currently

[SouthCoastMA]

The one big red flag is the EPS has been pretty steadfast for the past 3-4 runs of being mostly a miss. Need to see that change at 12z

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Berks 

Should get some here

[The 4 Seasons]

 

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Why is everyone just punting? Even the shittiesr solutions are scraping the coast. Doesn’t take much to get accumulating snow at least to eastern areas. 

Yeah I'm just as baffled as you are. 

everyone is on edge and a 6Z gfs run 90 hours out pushed them over I guess

00z trends were great overall I thought. 

3 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

The aggregate trend over the past 24 hours is still really solid. Needs more work, but fast forward from 6z yesterday I’m sure most would take where we are currently

Totally agree. Was worth watching then and worth watching now. 

We really need a KU for the sake of sanity of this place lmao

 

 

[ineedsnow]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Why is everyone just punting? Even the shittiesr solutions are scraping the coast. Doesn’t take much to get accumulating snow at least to eastern areas. 

I wouldn't be shocked  to see 12z come back to be honest 

[msg112469]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

 

Lol!

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Why is everyone just punting? Even the shittiesr solutions are scraping the coast. Doesn’t take much to get accumulating snow at least to eastern areas. 

This is my stance, but the collective psyche of the board right now is just so fragile that it will fall on deaf ears and get ample pushback.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Give it until 00z Saturday, guys.

[ineedsnow]

SREFS look threatening 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

 

Yeah I'm just as baffled as you are. 

everyone is on edge and a 6Z gfs run 90 hours out pushed them over I guess

00z trends were great overall I thought. 

Totally agree. Was worth watching then and worth watching now. 

We really need a KU for the sake of sanity of this place lmao

 

 

Hopefully nobody expected a KU, but I’m 100% done with another 1-2” of sublimation. If I could move to Fl I would. This is meteorological solitary confinement.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, wxsniss said:

Lagging vorticity I was referring to was here... this could be feedback from the line of convection sweeping off southeast coast, I'm not sure as 6z GFS hinted at this too, but it disrupts much better cyclogenesis. Otherwise, we'd have a huge hit.

no, it's vestigial of S/W moving into/through a compressed field

[40/70 Benchmark]

Say it with my guys and one outlier girl..."I'm a good person and I deserve snow.....but my life with or without snow has value". Breathe......and....repeat......

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

no, it's vestigial of S/W moving into/through a compressed field

Oh, boy Miami rule porking.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Give it until 00z Saturday, guys.

Yeah I mean a bad trend at 12z might be enough to mostly write off any chance at a warning event but even with a poor trend at 12z, hard to punt any accumulating snow for eastern areas yet. It would have to be a severe trend I think. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Give it until 00z Saturday, guys.

Agreed...I think it's going to be until Friday or Saturday before we have a true gasp on the 500mb evolution. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I mean a bad trend at 12z might be enough to mostly write off any chance at a warning event but even with a poor trend at 12z, hard to punt any accumulating snow for eastern areas yet. It would have to be a severe trend I think. 

Yea, I was assuming baseline.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

no, it's vestigial of S/W moving into/through a compressed field

Yeah I don't think there is any convective feedback issue going on here...hardly any, if any, convection with this anyways in the Southeast

[Damage In Tolland]

Reggie and RRFS long range are way west 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Reggie and RRFS long range are way west 

Clown range for both of them. Want to see GFS come back NW and euro make a move at 12z. Really the only two that matter at 72-84h. The mesos will become slightly more useful as we get closer but not really that trustworthy until like < 48h 

[Fozz]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully nobody expected a KU, but I’m 100% done with another 1-2” of sublimation. If I could move to Fl I would. This is meteorological solitary confinement.

I don’t need 18”, I just want a solid warning event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Fozz said:

I need 18”, but I'll probably get a solid warning event.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Holy Scooter melt…big second half incoming. 

[Typhoon Tip]

53 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Why is everyone just punting? Even the shittiesr solutions are scraping the coast. Doesn’t take much to get accumulating snow at least to eastern areas. 

Recency bias ...  whenever there's been a interim collapse toward less significance, that's verified with remarkable consistency -

As an aside, it's actually an homage to amazing modeling, actually.  Though high likelihood ... not being perceived that way, hahaha.  But at least this crap is happening at D4 and not 24 hours before.   That's what it meant to be 1980s ...  Relative to now and the state of the art, people expect model cinemas that look good, to keep doing so from say ... D6.   That might be possible in a slower, more canonical meridian pattern structure... But, when were running S/Ws through a fast field, it's still taxing models.

This thing is just as of 06z now relayed over Alaska/adjacent NW Territories. I'm curious if we see a tick or two as that should refresh the grids coming up here soon

[HIPPYVALLEY]

24 minutes ago, msg112469 said:

Lol!

I’m friends with him, he’s a pretty solid amateur weather guy.
Dave tries to call it as he sees it with no hype.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Recency bias ...  whenever there's been a interim collapse toward less significance, that's verified with remarkable consistency -

As an aside, it's actually an homage to amazing modeling, actually.  Though high likelihood ... not being perceived that way.  But at least this crap is happening at D4 and now 24 hours before.   That's what it meant to be 1980s ...  Relative to now and the state of the art, people expect model cinemas that look good, to keep doing so from say ... D6.   That might be possible in a slower, more canonical meridian pattern structure... But, when were running S/Ws through a fast field, it's still taxing models.

This thing is just as of 06z now relayed over Alaska/adjacent NW Territories. I'm curious if we see a tick or two as that should refresh the grids coming up here soon

What is making it more perplexing to me is we’re seeing conflicting trends so I don’t see how we just punt this yet. Yeah, the 06z gfs looked awful but both AIs got better at 06z and the euro maybe slightly got better (not saying much though). 
 

It’s admittedly a tight squeeze and I don’t expect a major event like some of the more bullish solutions. But I wouldn’t write off a solid advisory to perhaps even low end warning event in spots yet. 

[dryslot]

muthafukkers!

KLEW   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   1/15/2026  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 THU  15| FRI 16| SAT 17| SUN 18| MON 19| TUE 20| WED 21| THU 22 CLIMO
 X/N  43| 16  24| 14  34| 19  39| 20  33|  8  20|  1  21| -1  24 10 29
 TMP  34| 16  16| 19  29| 22  31| 22  24|  9  14|  3  14|  2  18      
 DPT  23|  5   4| 14  24| 19  24| 18  12| -2   1| -7   4| -4   7      
 CLD  OV| PC  CL| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| PC  PC| PC  CL| OV  PC      
 WND   7|  8  14|  4   4|  4   7|  8  13| 11  13|  8   9|  5   8      
 P12  30| 11   1| 37  56| 24  37| 74  30| 25  23| 15  21| 26  23999999
 P24    |     11|     63|     42|     84|     38|     25|     28   999
 Q12   0|  0   0|  0   1|  0   1|  3   0|  0   0|  0    |             
 Q24    |      0|      1|      1|      4|      1|       |             
 T12   1|  0   0|  0   1|  0   0|  0   0|  1   0|  0   0|  0   0      
 T24    |  1    |  0    |  1    |  0    |  2    |  0    |  0          
 PZP   0|  0   1|  5   6|  8   8| 10   9|  7   4|  2  10| 11   7      
 PSN  19| 67  98| 94  75| 72  67| 81  81| 90  92| 95  83| 83  88      
 PRS  20| 23   0|  2  12| 11  18|  7  11|  3   4|  3   4|  6   5      
 TYP   R|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S      
 SNW    |      0|      1|      1|      8|      1|       |             

[Typhoon Tip]

Later yesterday I mentioned that this system seemed to have better odds to succeed based largely on a modeling motif to correct system W-N moving through the middle ranges this season.   This may buck that trend if indeed the wave mechanics now tipping over Alaska and the NW Territories continues to be attenuated.   This really seems to be a situation that's almost entirely sensitive to how much is conserved of that S/W(s) spacing as it coalesces and dives S through the NP moving forward...   We can almost break all this down to tax arithmetic as a metaphor...  the fast flow is like a flat tax, and it will take/absorb the same amount, either way.   Whatever's left as it hits the SE ... etc

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I’m friends with him, he’s a pretty solid amateur weather guy.
Dave tries to call it as he sees it with no hype.

I enjoy his tweets. He definitely does not hype and is pretty straightforward. I really enjoy his posts during convective events 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Holy Scooter melt…big second half incoming. 

We need to sneak a biggie or 3 in before the draft.