TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 34 minutes ago, dryslot said: GFS is the new Nam, Sucked everyone in then dropped you like a hot potato. If people got sucked into phantom gfs solutions twice in 5 days, that’s on them. This never had support to be anything other than a graze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Why is everyone just punting? Even the shittiesr solutions are scraping the coast. Doesn’t take much to get accumulating snow at least to eastern areas. The aggregate trend over the past 24 hours is still really solid. Needs more work, but fast forward from 6z yesterday I’m sure most would take where we are currently 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 The one big red flag is the EPS has been pretty steadfast for the past 3-4 runs of being mostly a miss. Need to see that change at 12z 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Berks Should get some here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Why is everyone just punting? Even the shittiesr solutions are scraping the coast. Doesn’t take much to get accumulating snow at least to eastern areas. Yeah I'm just as baffled as you are. everyone is on edge and a 6Z gfs run 90 hours out pushed them over I guess 00z trends were great overall I thought. 3 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said: The aggregate trend over the past 24 hours is still really solid. Needs more work, but fast forward from 6z yesterday I’m sure most would take where we are currently Totally agree. Was worth watching then and worth watching now. We really need a KU for the sake of sanity of this place lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Why is everyone just punting? Even the shittiesr solutions are scraping the coast. Doesn’t take much to get accumulating snow at least to eastern areas. I wouldn't be shocked to see 12z come back to be honest 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msg112469 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, kdxken said: Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Why is everyone just punting? Even the shittiesr solutions are scraping the coast. Doesn’t take much to get accumulating snow at least to eastern areas. This is my stance, but the collective psyche of the board right now is just so fragile that it will fall on deaf ears and get ample pushback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 Give it until 00z Saturday, guys. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 SREFS look threatening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Yeah I'm just as baffled as you are. everyone is on edge and a 6Z gfs run 90 hours out pushed them over I guess 00z trends were great overall I thought. Totally agree. Was worth watching then and worth watching now. We really need a KU for the sake of sanity of this place lmao Hopefully nobody expected a KU, but I’m 100% done with another 1-2” of sublimation. If I could move to Fl I would. This is meteorological solitary confinement. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 8 hours ago, wxsniss said: Lagging vorticity I was referring to was here... this could be feedback from the line of convection sweeping off southeast coast, I'm not sure as 6z GFS hinted at this too, but it disrupts much better cyclogenesis. Otherwise, we'd have a huge hit. no, it's vestigial of S/W moving into/through a compressed field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 Say it with my guys and one outlier girl..."I'm a good person and I deserve snow.....but my life with or without snow has value". Breathe......and....repeat...... 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: no, it's vestigial of S/W moving into/through a compressed field Oh, boy Miami rule porking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Give it until 00z Saturday, guys. Yeah I mean a bad trend at 12z might be enough to mostly write off any chance at a warning event but even with a poor trend at 12z, hard to punt any accumulating snow for eastern areas yet. It would have to be a severe trend I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Give it until 00z Saturday, guys. Agreed...I think it's going to be until Friday or Saturday before we have a true gasp on the 500mb evolution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I mean a bad trend at 12z might be enough to mostly write off any chance at a warning event but even with a poor trend at 12z, hard to punt any accumulating snow for eastern areas yet. It would have to be a severe trend I think. Yea, I was assuming baseline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: no, it's vestigial of S/W moving into/through a compressed field Yeah I don't think there is any convective feedback issue going on here...hardly any, if any, convection with this anyways in the Southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Reggie and RRFS long range are way west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Reggie and RRFS long range are way west Clown range for both of them. Want to see GFS come back NW and euro make a move at 12z. Really the only two that matter at 72-84h. The mesos will become slightly more useful as we get closer but not really that trustworthy until like < 48h 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hopefully nobody expected a KU, but I’m 100% done with another 1-2” of sublimation. If I could move to Fl I would. This is meteorological solitary confinement. I don’t need 18”, I just want a solid warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 Just now, Fozz said: I need 18”, but I'll probably get a solid warning event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Holy Scooter melt…big second half incoming. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 53 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Why is everyone just punting? Even the shittiesr solutions are scraping the coast. Doesn’t take much to get accumulating snow at least to eastern areas. Recency bias ... whenever there's been a interim collapse toward less significance, that's verified with remarkable consistency - As an aside, it's actually an homage to amazing modeling, actually. Though high likelihood ... not being perceived that way, hahaha. But at least this crap is happening at D4 and not 24 hours before. That's what it meant to be 1980s ... Relative to now and the state of the art, people expect model cinemas that look good, to keep doing so from say ... D6. That might be possible in a slower, more canonical meridian pattern structure... But, when were running S/Ws through a fast field, it's still taxing models. This thing is just as of 06z now relayed over Alaska/adjacent NW Territories. I'm curious if we see a tick or two as that should refresh the grids coming up here soon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 24 minutes ago, msg112469 said: Lol! I’m friends with him, he’s a pretty solid amateur weather guy. Dave tries to call it as he sees it with no hype. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Recency bias ... whenever there's been a interim collapse toward less significance, that's verified with remarkable consistency - As an aside, it's actually an homage to amazing modeling, actually. Though high likelihood ... not being perceived that way. But at least this crap is happening at D4 and now 24 hours before. That's what it meant to be 1980s ... Relative to now and the state of the art, people expect model cinemas that look good, to keep doing so from say ... D6. That might be possible in a slower, more canonical meridian pattern structure... But, when were running S/Ws through a fast field, it's still taxing models. This thing is just as of 06z now relayed over Alaska/adjacent NW Territories. I'm curious if we see a tick or two as that should refresh the grids coming up here soon What is making it more perplexing to me is we’re seeing conflicting trends so I don’t see how we just punt this yet. Yeah, the 06z gfs looked awful but both AIs got better at 06z and the euro maybe slightly got better (not saying much though). It’s admittedly a tight squeeze and I don’t expect a major event like some of the more bullish solutions. But I wouldn’t write off a solid advisory to perhaps even low end warning event in spots yet. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 muthafukkers! KLEW GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/15/2026 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 THU 15| FRI 16| SAT 17| SUN 18| MON 19| TUE 20| WED 21| THU 22 CLIMO X/N 43| 16 24| 14 34| 19 39| 20 33| 8 20| 1 21| -1 24 10 29 TMP 34| 16 16| 19 29| 22 31| 22 24| 9 14| 3 14| 2 18 DPT 23| 5 4| 14 24| 19 24| 18 12| -2 1| -7 4| -4 7 CLD OV| PC CL| OV OV| OV OV| OV OV| PC PC| PC CL| OV PC WND 7| 8 14| 4 4| 4 7| 8 13| 11 13| 8 9| 5 8 P12 30| 11 1| 37 56| 24 37| 74 30| 25 23| 15 21| 26 23999999 P24 | 11| 63| 42| 84| 38| 25| 28 999 Q12 0| 0 0| 0 1| 0 1| 3 0| 0 0| 0 | Q24 | 0| 1| 1| 4| 1| | T12 1| 0 0| 0 1| 0 0| 0 0| 1 0| 0 0| 0 0 T24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 PZP 0| 0 1| 5 6| 8 8| 10 9| 7 4| 2 10| 11 7 PSN 19| 67 98| 94 75| 72 67| 81 81| 90 92| 95 83| 83 88 PRS 20| 23 0| 2 12| 11 18| 7 11| 3 4| 3 4| 6 5 TYP R| S S| S S| S S| S S| S S| S S| S S SNW | 0| 1| 1| 8| 1| | 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Later yesterday I mentioned that this system seemed to have better odds to succeed based largely on a modeling motif to correct system W-N moving through the middle ranges this season. This may buck that trend if indeed the wave mechanics now tipping over Alaska and the NW Territories continues to be attenuated. This really seems to be a situation that's almost entirely sensitive to how much is conserved of that S/W(s) spacing as it coalesces and dives S through the NP moving forward... We can almost break all this down to tax arithmetic as a metaphor... the fast flow is like a flat tax, and it will take/absorb the same amount, either way. Whatever's left as it hits the SE ... etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 10 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I’m friends with him, he’s a pretty solid amateur weather guy. Dave tries to call it as he sees it with no hype. I enjoy his tweets. He definitely does not hype and is pretty straightforward. I really enjoy his posts during convective events 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Holy Scooter melt…big second half incoming. We need to sneak a biggie or 3 in before the draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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