Storm potential January 18th-19th

[mattinpa]

Yes the big blizzard shown was very likely unrealistic but wouldn’t count out a SECS just yet.

[WeatherGeek2025]

nam looks tasty for saturday

[Stormlover74]

Nam comes in early either temps below freezing. Too bad its the nam

[Krs4Lfe]

NAM has almost Nothing for Sunday. Not a great sign considering how over amped the nam usually is 

[Franklin0529]

5 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

NAM has almost Nothing for Sunday. Not a great sign considering how over amped the nam usually is 

You'll buy what the nam is selling at 100hrs but not the GFS? Are you sure you an weenie man I mean snowman 19 aren't the same people 

[Nibor]

16 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

NAM has almost Nothing for Sunday. Not a great sign considering how over amped the nam usually is 

[Krs4Lfe]

ICON has a storm just offshore. But verbatim there’s nothing for most of us. Very similar to its last run. Light snow with a larger storm offshore. Aside from the GFS, that seems to be the consensus for now. Trough struggles to turn negative. Therein lies the issue 

[Jt17]

ICON has a storm just offshore. But verbatim there’s nothing for most of us. Very similar to its last run. Light snow with a larger storm offshore. Aside from the GFS, that seems to be the consensus for now. Trough struggles to turn negative. Therein lies the issue 

Trended west just like the Euro.


.

[Franklin0529]

2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

ICON has a storm just offshore. But verbatim there’s nothing for most of us. Very similar to its last run. Light snow with a larger storm offshore. Aside from the GFS, that seems to be the consensus for now. Trough struggles to turn negative. Therein lies the issue 

It took a pretty good size jump west. You do realize the storm is still 4 days away right? Every model has been trending west. Not saying a GFS blizzard is on the table. But a few Inches certainly isn't out of the question 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

ICON has a storm just offshore. But verbatim there’s nothing for most of us. Very similar to its last run. Light snow with a larger storm offshore. Aside from the GFS, that seems to be the consensus for now. Trough struggles to turn negative. Therein lies the issue 

 

[eduggs]

So far everything ticked a little better at 0z. That's better than the opposite. Looks like a burst of snow or rain on Sat. and a close call for something Sunday. Still a little time to trend better.

[MJO812]

Rgem is much more amped for sunday 

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem is much more amped for sunday 

 

Yeah, it looks really good. An improvement over the 12z GDPS. It's a little faster than the 18z GFS, but actually a little west of it at the surface. That's a plowable snowfall incoming on the model. 

[Tar Heel Snow]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem is much more amped for sunday 

Just a  of miles N

Just a few miles off from a VERY tasty looking FGEN band verbatim too. Very, very fickle 

[MJO812]

AI GFS and GFS are coming in more amped. This should be west of 18z.

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

AI GFS and GFS are coming in more amped. This should be west of 18z.

way west on gfs ai

[eduggs]

Going to be more Gulf inflow on the GFS.

[WeatherGeek2025]

this will be a big hit i think

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

this will be a big hit i think

Not really but a nice snow event .

[Tar Heel Snow]

lol it's gonna do it again. telling ya, this ain't done with west adjustments

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Not really but a nice snow event .

better than 18z and this may not be done w/ west trends

[eduggs]

Starts west but dampens at h5 and slides east. A nice run but not 12z.

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, eduggs said:

Starts west but dampens at h5 and slides east. A nice run but not 12z.

better than 18z

[BoulderWX]

A nice 2-4” event for most. I’d take it 

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

A nice 2-4” event for most. I’d take it 

More for LI. And could be solid ratios too.

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, eduggs said:

More for LI. And could be solid ratios too.

i don't think this is done trending west, though other models may be stubborn on the west trend i think gfs is leading with this and trends more west reminds me of nemo, but the opposite instead of east it's west

 

don't tell that to ne crew

 

[SHELEG]

GFS is more then 2-4 for most.

[eduggs]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i don't think this is done trending west, though other models may be stubborn on the west trend i think gfs is leading with this and trends more west reminds me of nemo, but the opposite instead of east it's west

 

don't tell that to ne crew

 

Yeah plenty of time to shift either way. I'd like to see the trof a little sharper so the SLP tracks with more of a north component than east. That would also strengthen the SLP and mid-level lows to wrap more moisture west.

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, eduggs said:

Yeah plenty of time to shift either way. I'd like to see the trof a little sharper so the SLP tracks with more of a north component than east. That would also strengthen the SLP and mid-level lows to wrap more moisture west.

so gfs says basically no snow for saturday for the city i don't mind can we get this trend another 50-100 miles precip expansion and bm track and we are golden

[MJO812]

Cmc way west