January 16-18th: Rolling the dice

[Ji]

36 already 

Are you going to become apple22 soon?

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Temp dropping nicely, but maybe doesn’t matter much??

Yeah I mean if the warm nose on the modeling is real then it may not...

[aldie 22]

Just now, Ji said:

Are you going to become apple22 soon?

I can't change my name until im dead apparently 

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I can't change my name until im dead apparently 

When is your next move? 

[konksw]

33.8 in NW DC. 

[RevWarReenactor]

Already down to 31 here. It probably doesn’t matter. Once the clouds come in it will likely recover. Still already 3 degrees colder than they said it would be

[GreyHat]

Currently at Magnolia DE

[WxUSAF]

Another snow event of playing “how disappointing will it be when I first look out my window in the morning”? I’m basically the New York Jets of that game.

[aldie 22]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Another snow event of playing “how disappointing will it be when I first look out my window in the morning”? I’m basically the New York Jets of that game.

I feel like if my mulch turns white its an overperformer out here

[CAPE]

Euro never looked great, but now its even more crappy for much of the region like many of the latest meso runs.

 

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, CAPE said:

Euro never looked great, but now its even more crappy for much of the region like many of the latest meso runs.

 

It’s not even that good for SNE anymore. Cold air no where to be found 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

It’s not even that good for SNE anymore. Cold air no where to be found 

Also cut the precip in half. Getting accum snow was dependent on getting some actual rates to overcome the warmish air in the lower levels. Looks like very light snow now- probably will be snow tv after some rain.

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Euro never looked great, but now its even more crappy for much of the region like many of the latest meso runs.

 

At least this will be more than I got this morning 

[aldie 22]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Euro never looked great, but now its even more crappy for much of the region like many of the latest meso runs.

 

Lol it's better for me

[Eskimo Joe]

Advisories expanded

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
646 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

DCZ001-MDZ005-006-011-013-014-503>506-VAZ053-054-506-526-527-180800-
/O.EXA.KLWX.WW.Y.0005.260118T0900Z-260118T2300Z/
District of Columbia-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Southern
Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and
Southeast Howard-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-
Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
646 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of DC, central, north central, and northern 
  Maryland, and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday.

 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Lol it's better for me

Aren't you out near Winchester?  Even if you are anywhere east of there it isnt better lol.

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Advisories expanded

 

Wow, that’s bullish. I don’t know if I would have issued a WWA

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Wow, that’s bullish. I don’t know if I would have issued a WWA

Yeah I don't get that...and calling for 1-3" at that? Ehhhhh...

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Advisories expanded

 

Great call! The latest model runs all support this.

[nj2va]

29 and flurries.

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Wow, that’s bullish. I don’t know if I would have issued a WWA

I am surprised for sure.  My expectations are for less than an inch

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

I am surprised for sure.  My expectations are for less than an inch

Yeah, I’m def gonna read their AFD to get a feel for what they’re thinking. It’s also sunday, not like its during a rush hour commute. 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, I’m def gonna read their AFD to get a feel for what they’re thinking. 

This is the part from the afternoon AFD regarding the event

s the front moves eastward, mid and upper level dynamics will
assist precipitation developing along and behind the boundary.
Low pressure will develop along the frontal zone along the coast
and ride northeastward through the day. This will be a tricky
scenario as snow will be highly dependent on colder air catching
up to the moisture, which is sometimes difficult to achieve and
offset by dry advection. Temperatures will be colder sooner west
of I-95, but these areas will likely see a shorter duration of
precipitation. East of I-95, more precipitation is expected, but
temperatures may be slightly above freezing for a large part of
the event, and precipitation may even be rain for a while. The
best potential for cold air and higher precipitation totals to
overlap appears to be northeastern Maryland. Thus, confidence
was high enough to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for this area
with the greatest potential for 2 inches of snow. However, if
the afternoon wave of precipitation associated with the low
misses to the south and east (which some models show), totals
may fall short. Most other areas will see a slushy coating to an
inch, perhaps locally higher where any banding sets up. Rates
will be important to any sort of accumulations, especially as
the day wears on, given marginal surface temperatures. Will
have to monitor for possible expansions to the advisory,
especially if confidence increases a colder solution near and
east of the I-95 corridor. End time for the precipitation could
be pretty early in the day closer to and west of the Blue Ridge.
How long the precipitation lasts closer to the Chesapeake Bay
will depend on the western extent of the second frontal wave. In
any event, dry conditions look likely by mid Sunday evening.
Temperatures from the mid teens to mid 20s are expected Sunday
night, so any residual moisture or slush could refreeze.

[Ji]

Euro never looked great, but now its even more crappy for much of the region like many of the latest meso runs.

 

What? Mets in Boston are going for 8-12

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

What? Mets in Boston are going for 8-12

Pivotal shows 3-4", with a bullseye of 6" on the Cape.

[Wintrest]

Impacts… “slippery road conditions…” NWS doesn’t want to be caught with their pants on the ground. 

[blizzardmeiser]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

What? Mets in Boston are going for 8-12

Would love heavy snow for that Texans Patriots game

[nw baltimore wx]

If I get snow tomorrow, it’ll be snow on snow in some shady area!

[aldie 22]

35 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Aren't you out near Winchester?  Even if you are anywhere east of there it isnt better lol.

Dude every run of everything had me at zero this at least shows some color