Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[Thrasher Fan]

0z GFS. lol

[SnowDawg]

If the blocking and 50/50 being advertised actually develop over suppression may be our biggest potential fail mode. Hopefully one of those big cutoffs can slide under the ridge out west and time up well.

[SnowDawg]

Excluding flow snow in the mtns, Euro AI had 4 separate snow events from the 24th-31st. And was the 8th straight run with a storm centered around the 28th.

[BornAgain13]

6z GFS brings back the storm for next Sunday for NC/VA

[WXNewton]

10 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

6z GFS brings back the storm for next Sunday for NC/VA

Ensembles support this too on both GFS and Euro. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[eyewall]

The models just failed horribly within hours of this event. I am not about to get on board with a 200 hour storm signal. 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

What could go wrong?

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Rule 1 for North Carolina, South Carolina ,and Virginia: The Cold must be in place before the moisture. 
 

Is that the case for the next system? If not, don’t fall for the okie dope 

[WXNewton]

1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Rule 1 for North Carolina, South Carolina ,and Virginia: The Cold must be in place before the moisture. 
 

Is that the case for the next system? If not, don’t fall for the okie dope 

I agree somewhat, but I have also witnessed a few storms first hand that did not start out cold and were some doozies. We had an ice storm in 94 where temps were near 60 that day and by the next morning we had a nightmare of a storm with freezing rain and several inches of sleet. However, with that said, yes it's best to have the cold first but not impossible, just makes timing harder if it's not in place.

[eyewall]

The 12z initialized with RDU seeing snow. It is 42F and raining as an FYI

[PackGrad05]

yeah the EPS is still solidly showing 1-2" of snow for Raleigh..   very very wrong currently.

[BooneWX]

Insane 12z suite lmao. If we didn’t have an active storm at this very moment, the board would be crashing. 

[NC_hailstorm]

That's a barrage of hits at day 6/7 and beyond today,coming in from all sides all models.

[BornAgain13]

Wow just wow. Look at 12z showing off lol

[BornAgain13]

Check out the Euro AI for next Sunday lol

[Grayman]

3 hours ago, eyewall said:

The models just failed horribly within hours of this event. I am not about to get on board with a 200 hour storm signal. 

Agree. I sent way too much time model watching and hugging the model that showed snow. I need a break, but wait did you see GfS and CMC at 12z. lol 

[stormtracker]

Just FYI, Euro destroys some of yall next weekend

 

[NC_hailstorm]

Good grief the Euro is about to drop the big hammer here.  

[wncsnow]

Big storm next Sunday incoming 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, NC_hailstorm said:

Good grief the Euro is about to drop the big hammer here.  

 Love to see the model showing that !!

[WinstonSalemArlington]

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Just FYI, Euro destroys some of yall next weekend

 

I will be in Arlington. Hope it includes NoVa

[wncsnow]

Plenty cold enough with strong CAD.. only 7 days (or slightly less) away. Could be a long week of model watching. 

[wncsnow]

Still snowing