Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[Thrasher Fan]

0z GFS. lol

[SnowDawg]

If the blocking and 50/50 being advertised actually develop over suppression may be our biggest potential fail mode. Hopefully one of those big cutoffs can slide under the ridge out west and time up well.

[SnowDawg]

Excluding flow snow in the mtns, Euro AI had 4 separate snow events from the 24th-31st. And was the 8th straight run with a storm centered around the 28th.

[BornAgain13]

6z GFS brings back the storm for next Sunday for NC/VA

[WXNewton]

10 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

6z GFS brings back the storm for next Sunday for NC/VA

Ensembles support this too on both GFS and Euro. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[eyewall]

The models just failed horribly within hours of this event. I am not about to get on board with a 200 hour storm signal. 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

What could go wrong?

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Rule 1 for North Carolina, South Carolina ,and Virginia: The Cold must be in place before the moisture. 
 

Is that the case for the next system? If not, don’t fall for the okie dope 

[WXNewton]

1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Rule 1 for North Carolina, South Carolina ,and Virginia: The Cold must be in place before the moisture. 
 

Is that the case for the next system? If not, don’t fall for the okie dope 

I agree somewhat, but I have also witnessed a few storms first hand that did not start out cold and were some doozies. We had an ice storm in 94 where temps were near 60 that day and by the next morning we had a nightmare of a storm with freezing rain and several inches of sleet. However, with that said, yes it's best to have the cold first but not impossible, just makes timing harder if it's not in place.