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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowfan
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1 minute ago, Ji said:

can we not have a high in Arkansas...

too bad the 2nd storm is probably the one...the first had way more potential. We suck at snow sports pretty much everything

1768759200-XzFlbtH8TYQ.png

Trae Young and top 8 pick to the rescue? 

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8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Why anyone is scoffing at this I have no idea.

Yeah I don't get all the scoffing and "ho-hum" here.  This is 10 days away for crying out loud, and there's a decent signal for a moderate (maybe better?) event.  That's all we can ask for and expect at this point, so I think it's a pretty good spot to be in.  This isn't some well-defined classic K-U event that shows up on all guidance a week or so out and never wavers.  It's a much more volatile setup.

 

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

i know we always say this and it never works out but if take the 18z gfs and the 12z euro and make a baby--you probably got a MECS

FFS, didn't you already punt?

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Looking ahead through end of Jan, all ensembles bring a southern/SE ridge after jan 22… but gefs/geps retrogrades the ridge west toward the end of their runs. If they’re correct, that thaw will only last a few days before it gets colder again. Euro wants to keep the SE ridge all the way through, but with mjo going into 7 I think its wrong and will catch up to gefs/geps. 

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4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looking ahead through end of Jan, all ensembles bring a southern/SE ridge after jan 22… but gefs/geps retrogrades the ridge west toward the end of their runs. If they’re correct, that thaw will only last a few days before it gets colder again. Euro wants to keep the SE ridge all the way through, but with mjo going into 7 I think its wrong and will catch up to gefs/geps. 

Could we see a 2024 style warmup if it verifies? Or will it get muted once again?

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Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

Could we see a 2024 style warmup if it verifies? Or will it get muted once again?

You mean when DCA almost reached 80 degrees in Jan? I seriously doubt it happens this time. Feburary, maybe. 

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