January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

It better be the 86-87, 02-03, 09-10 flavor not 72-73

As long as it’s active that’s all I care. The weather has been a snorefest overall. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Fwiw, Ukie is flat as a frying pan. 

When isn’t it? 

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Fwiw, Ukie is flat as a frying pan. 

EURO AI nothing for next week either....

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS has nothing for next 10 days.

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

EURO AI nothing for next week either....

Kicker is very strong and south 

[mattie g]

28 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

12Z GEFS shows a progressive trough moving off the coast.  No big coastal storm for next week.

 

22 minutes ago, frd said:

Like you said previously, way too many things need to go right to get significant snow here. Winter Nor'Easters and benchmark storms have gone the way of the dinosaurs.  

 

lol…you two bringing the Eeyore? Surprise!

[stormy]

19 hours ago, CAPE said:

I don't think you understand the purpose of ensemble models. Maybe just ignore them?

I appreciate your suggestion, but No, I won't ignore them.

I fully understand that they are supposed to be more accurate than the deterministic models because of more data input across various parameters.  A higher skill score should be achieved, especially for complex systems or longer term considerations.

I will develop a comparison chart for ECM/EPS and GFS and GFS ens.

Saturdays rain will be a good first comparison.

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, mattie g said:

 

lol…you two bringing the Eeyore? Surprise!

Just trying to keep expectations in check so people aren't disappointed.  The globals are really worthless outside Day 5.  Ensembles are ok through Day 10.  Just nothing screaming snow storm incoming right now.  Hopefully that will change over the next week...

[AlexD1990]

3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

 

lol…you two bringing the Eeyore? Surprise!

I think the Debbing should be kept to a minimum until after the weekend at least. sounds like the opportunities are there, and were far too far out to be worrying about specifics. 

[TSSN+]

Let’s get this storm to pass us Sunday and see where we go from there. 

[Eskimo Joe]

CFS is quite chilly for February

 

 

[T. August]

Euro pretty different at 500. Can’t see the sfc yet

edit: out to sea

[brooklynwx99]

well, this is exactly what you want to see, NS is acting as confluence and not interfering with the main wave

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

CFS is quite chilly for February

 

 

Mainly BN on Tropical Tidbits, but, as usual, no where near WB even considering WB is F and TT is Celsius. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2026010806&fh=168

[NorthArlington101]

kicker the problem on the euro? Euro v. ICON below

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, T. August said:

Euro pretty different at 500. Can’t see the sfc yet

We need the ULL to be as far east as possible and the northern stream shortwave diving south to be as far west as possible. We need these to at least partially phase, so the ULL needs to be downstream of the developing longwave trof. Otherwise the trof will be positively tilted and a coastal storm is unlikely.

Ensembles and AIs have been trending in the wrong direction. Only the ICON shows a successful evolution with this feature.

[eduggs]

Kickers are never the problem. They are (usually) a symptom of an unfavorable upper level evolution. It's a dumb term coined by people who don't know what they are talking about.

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Kickers are never the problem. They are (usually) a symptom of an unfavorable upper level evolution. It's a dumb term coined by people who don't know what they are talking about.

Guess I'm pretty dumb.  That's what I picked up from years being here.  

Anyone here who actually wants to teach folks wanna help out here?

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO Day 7..... 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO Day 7..... 

It's a start!

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO Day 8

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Guess I'm pretty dumb.  That's what I picked up from years being here.  

Anyone here who actually wants to teach folks wanna help out here?

 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Day 8

What happens in between those hours? Snowfall maps?

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Guess I'm pretty dumb.  That's what I picked up from years being here.  

Anyone here who actually wants to teach folks wanna help out here?

No offense was meant. But it's a little like saying a surface high can block storms or that a surface low causes a storm and precipitation. We like to almost anthropomorphize meteorological features that are actually just a reflection of the large-scale upper level atmospheric circulation and evolution.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

It's a start!

Yeah...cards are showing up on all of the models.   Just need a Royal Flush.   That's not too much to ask for.

[eduggs]

Southern stream was further east this ECM run. Slightly more phasing. Definitely a positive development!

[Weather Will]

WB EURO Day 10 weekend rule in effect 

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

Been quite a while since we had a miller A coming up from the gulf!!! Hope it holds and I hope other models get on board!!

It’s a bit south of the classic passage point over Atlanta but at least it’s from the south

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

What happens in between those hours? Snowfall maps?

thats the part Weather Will dosent tell you about

[SnowenOutThere]

Ngl I think it’s time for my break to end as I like what I’m seeing. Will dive into the meteorology some more this afternoon though I think we’re close to something (possibly major) for the 15-20 period.