January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mattie g]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Obviously that's extreme lol but feast/famine or storms in bunches has historically how we roll in the MA. We're conditioned to expect fail (especially the last 10 years or so) but we also haven't had a blocked pattern like this since 2011. I'm personally expecting a second legit threat at least over the next 2 weeks. 

Blocking cycles like this have historically lasted 30-45 days. Imo, it would be much less likely for things to fall apart quickly than hang around and deliver. I had a hunch this winter would be blocky and so far it has been pretty good in that department. The upcoming period looks ideal. Just need things to remain active to capitalize. That piece is always random and chaotic but give us enough chances and we'll do just fine imo. 

Totally makes sense. When we hit, we can hit big, but we also fail big and often.

I find it interesting and awesome that the three hits on this run are an overrunning/SWFE event, what kind of looks to be a Miller B, and a storm riding up the coast. Three ways to win, three ways to fail.

[Eskimo Joe]

UKMET is FOLKS  

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Let's just play the ukulele and lock it up. I mix for a bit but if that's what it takes for ALL of us to get buried... I guess I'll make the sacrifice just this once 

Im sure you'll find a way to manage with only 2 feet of snow.

[bncho]

GEFS has a huge signal for Bob Chill, technically a shift south but our snow mean improves a lot as well!

[mitchnick]

Ukie 2 feet +

[NorthArlington101]

Ukie 2 feet +

Zoomed version

[clskinsfan]

Holy smokes. UKIE just went ballistic. Everything seems to be coming around to the AI solutions from yesterday. Just wow. 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Zoomed version

Sweet mercy that's a lot of orange sherbet! (TM)

[bncho]

So how the hell did the euro ai go from the best outcome to the third best outcome??? 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Holy smokes. UKIE just went ballistic. Everything seems to be coming around to the AI solutions from yesterday. Just wow. 

Except for the GEFS and EPS...would really like to see those on board too

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

That's very impressive!

[Lowershoresadness]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Zoomed version

again use caution when looking at these. they are like looking at big boobs. never stare directly at them just get a glance then move on with your day

[davidjd1114]

Maybe I shouldn’t say this but in a side Twitter group chat Tomer Berg just called this a mix of Jonas (2016) and Feb 2010.

Don’t say that and get me all hyped up I would kill for a repeat of the 2010 double blizzards


.

[T. August]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Except for the GEFS and EPS...would really like to see those on board too

12z gefs was better than the op and an improvement from 6z.

[Eskimo Joe]

12z UKMET is a top 5 snowfall from DC to Philly. Would rival 1996, PDII, and 2016 for many. Just unreal.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, davidjd1114 said:

Don’t say that and get me all hyped up I would kill for a repeat of the 2010 double blizzards


.

I’d kill for a repeat of one of them! 

[clskinsfan]

6 hour 10:1 snowfall map on the UKIE is heavenly. Absolutely pummeled. Would be 2 inch per hour rates for most of us. Insanity. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Models going nuclear at this range is what we want of course.  We know the 20-30 inch kuchie maps are for fun only this far out, but I’m starting to believe we get a major winter storm now. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

14 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

No Words

Randy has a word i think

[DDweatherman]

I hope the euro crashes the mf server in a few

[Terpeast]

12z gefs much improved:

6z:

 

Now please let the ukie/cmc/aifs verify!

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Models going nuclear at this range is what we want of course.  We know the 20-30 inch kuchie maps are for fun only this far out, but I’m starting to believe we get a major winter storm now. 

You know you have the upside of something out of the KU book when they show up. Need to see it for it to be possible! 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

How are we looking for wind? Pretty strong high up there and pressure gradient, should be breezy you would think. 

[Solution Man]

16 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

No Words

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Terpeast said:

12z gefs much improved:

6z:

 

Now please let the ukie/cmc/aifs verify!

What time do you think we need these models to hold through to start getting legit excited? My benchmark is inside tomorrow 12z runs as The Storm That Shall Not Be Named fell apart five days before it occurred so I'll wait till tomorrow. 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, T. August said:

12z gefs was better than the op and an improvement from 6z.

Oh okay. PBP fail @bncho -- you said it was technically a shift south but it actually ticked north! Dropping your grade to a C+ 

[Ralph Wiggum]

14 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I have three children, I would perhaps give a nut to make that UK run come to fruition. Or the CMC’s 18” blizzard too. 

I mean in all fairness for the forum, if youre done procreating you can donate both nuts for the snow gods. We will all appreciate your generous sacrifice.

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh okay. PBP fail @bncho -- you said it was technically a shift south but it actually ticked north! Dropping your grade to a C+ 

It was more a consolidation than a real shift north or south. Just had more members that ejected the low and had a storm which appears as a shift north.  

[LeesburgWx]

20 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

No Words

Holy Shit! FOLKS & WRECKED

[Eskimo Joe]

Looking further down the road, do we see another wind reversal in Feb?