mattie g Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Obviously that's extreme lol but feast/famine or storms in bunches has historically how we roll in the MA. We're conditioned to expect fail (especially the last 10 years or so) but we also haven't had a blocked pattern like this since 2011. I'm personally expecting a second legit threat at least over the next 2 weeks. Blocking cycles like this have historically lasted 30-45 days. Imo, it would be much less likely for things to fall apart quickly than hang around and deliver. I had a hunch this winter would be blocky and so far it has been pretty good in that department. The upcoming period looks ideal. Just need things to remain active to capitalize. That piece is always random and chaotic but give us enough chances and we'll do just fine imo. Totally makes sense. When we hit, we can hit big, but we also fail big and often. I find it interesting and awesome that the three hits on this run are an overrunning/SWFE event, what kind of looks to be a Miller B, and a storm riding up the coast. Three ways to win, three ways to fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 UKMET is FOLKS 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Bob Chill said: Let's just play the ukulele and lock it up. I mix for a bit but if that's what it takes for ALL of us to get buried... I guess I'll make the sacrifice just this once Im sure you'll find a way to manage with only 2 feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 GEFS has a huge signal for Bob Chill, technically a shift south but our snow mean improves a lot as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Ukie 2 feet + 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Ukie 2 feet +Zoomed version 8 1 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Holy smokes. UKIE just went ballistic. Everything seems to be coming around to the AI solutions from yesterday. Just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Zoomed version Sweet mercy that's a lot of orange sherbet! (TM) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 So how the hell did the euro ai go from the best outcome to the third best outcome??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, clskinsfan said: Holy smokes. UKIE just went ballistic. Everything seems to be coming around to the AI solutions from yesterday. Just wow. Except for the GEFS and EPS...would really like to see those on board too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: That's very impressive! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Zoomed version again use caution when looking at these. they are like looking at big boobs. never stare directly at them just get a glance then move on with your day 1 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidjd1114 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Maybe I shouldn’t say this but in a side Twitter group chat Tomer Berg just called this a mix of Jonas (2016) and Feb 2010. Don’t say that and get me all hyped up I would kill for a repeat of the 2010 double blizzards . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Except for the GEFS and EPS...would really like to see those on board too 12z gefs was better than the op and an improvement from 6z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 12z UKMET is a top 5 snowfall from DC to Philly. Would rival 1996, PDII, and 2016 for many. Just unreal. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, davidjd1114 said: Don’t say that and get me all hyped up I would kill for a repeat of the 2010 double blizzards . I’d kill for a repeat of one of them! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6 hour 10:1 snowfall map on the UKIE is heavenly. Absolutely pummeled. Would be 2 inch per hour rates for most of us. Insanity. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Models going nuclear at this range is what we want of course. We know the 20-30 inch kuchie maps are for fun only this far out, but I’m starting to believe we get a major winter storm now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 14 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: No Words Randy has a word i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I hope the euro crashes the mf server in a few 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 12z gefs much improved: 6z: Now please let the ukie/cmc/aifs verify! 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Models going nuclear at this range is what we want of course. We know the 20-30 inch kuchie maps are for fun only this far out, but I’m starting to believe we get a major winter storm now. You know you have the upside of something out of the KU book when they show up. Need to see it for it to be possible! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 How are we looking for wind? Pretty strong high up there and pressure gradient, should be breezy you would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 16 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: No Words 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Terpeast said: 12z gefs much improved: 6z: Now please let the ukie/cmc/aifs verify! What time do you think we need these models to hold through to start getting legit excited? My benchmark is inside tomorrow 12z runs as The Storm That Shall Not Be Named fell apart five days before it occurred so I'll wait till tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 minutes ago, T. August said: 12z gefs was better than the op and an improvement from 6z. Oh okay. PBP fail @bncho -- you said it was technically a shift south but it actually ticked north! Dropping your grade to a C+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 14 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: I have three children, I would perhaps give a nut to make that UK run come to fruition. Or the CMC’s 18” blizzard too. I mean in all fairness for the forum, if youre done procreating you can donate both nuts for the snow gods. We will all appreciate your generous sacrifice. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Oh okay. PBP fail @bncho -- you said it was technically a shift south but it actually ticked north! Dropping your grade to a C+ It was more a consolidation than a real shift north or south. Just had more members that ejected the low and had a storm which appears as a shift north. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 20 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: No Words Holy Shit! FOLKS & WRECKED 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Looking further down the road, do we see another wind reversal in Feb? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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