January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Weather Will]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

We still doing this?

I will keep watching through tomorrow for any improvement. Realistically, this currently has an eastern shore bullseye potential but tracking is fun so I go with it. By the way, rescheduled my appointment from the 26th to the 22nd so lock in the 22nd for our blizzard!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I don’t see any reason to speak very definitively when you’re at approx 120 hours.  People were very definitively saying our fail mode was suppression for the last storm not much beyond 120 hours.  Things can and do change fast at this range.  We’re still in the game. 

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

guys, take a break, I know I m getting killed here, but this one just isn't meant to be. that's ok. next one will get us

 

[AlexD1990]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

thank god you're here. please have your boyfriend hit him with his umbrella.

[JakkelWx]

Who would be the statisticians if that role was given out?

[stormtracker]

But seriously, it looks bleak.  But I'm hanging in there for a bit.  The chances of a comeback dwindle with each new set of runs at this point and I hate to say this, I get the gloom in here, but I think we should slow down and give it another run or two.

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

But seriously, it looks bleak.  But I'm hanging in there for a bit.  The chances of a comeback dwindle with each new set of runs at this point and I hate to say this, I get the gloom in here, but I think we should slow down and give it another run or two.

For the last storm, all models shifted south before shifting north—waaay north

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

But seriously, it looks bleak.  But I'm hanging in there for a bit.  The chances of a comeback dwindle with each new set of runs at this point and I hate to say this, I get the gloom in here, but I think we should slow down and give it another run or two.

Think we have a bunch of troll accounts opening. Think of the persons first post to the board is something like: This storm isn’t happening. We suck, etc etc they should be banned immediately lol. 

[LP08]

Ill start the Hopium 12z run.  Icon looks improved through 60.

[clskinsfan]

10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 

OMG I would have so much fun with Mod access.

[Nomz]

Just backread everything since last night. You guys can get really fucking insufferable over one off hour model suite.

[Mikeymac5306]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 

May I suggest you move him to the Westen forum with our friends Mohammet, Jugdish, Sidney, and Clayton...

[LP08]

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 

Need to know the difference between a "Mega Subscription" and a "Super Subscription"....hahaha

[Buddy1987]

Time to pull out Angels in the Outfield for this one!

[midatlanticweather]

2 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Just backread everything since last night. You guys can get really fucking insufferable over one off hour model suite.

^This board does it well! We are passionate about wins and losses! It feels personal when things miss us.. especially to the south!!

[AlexD1990]

we need @psuhoffman to come sing us words of wisdom...let it be....

[mitchnick]

Icon definitely further west with the western lobe of the northern trough at 72 vs 6z run fwiw.

[TSSN+]

Icon looks vastly improved over 6z thru 78hrs but will it be enough? 

[AlexD1990]

I'm sorry, but it would be beyond hilarious to witness the emotional whiplash if all the 12z runs bring in some sort of epic shellac king for all. 

 

speaking it into existence.... 

[Nomz]

ICON was absolutely terrible at 00z, so anything's an improvement atp.

[bncho]

Just now, Nomz said:

ICON was absolutely terrible at 00z, so anything's an improvement atp.

6z was better than 0z

[soadforecasterx]

im not a king at reading 500 but seems like when it loses that closed off low in the baja area. that leads to a better outcome

[TSSN+]

Better but not anywhere near better enough to get something 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

I'm sorry, but it would be beyond hilarious to witness the emotional whiplash if all the 12z runs bring in some sort of epic shellac king for all. 

 

speaking it into existence.... 

There will be no pulling me back in unless the the Euro brothers bring it back too, lol

[AmericanWxFreak]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Better but not anywhere near better enough to get something 

Im out.

[stormtracker]

The 84 hour NAM didn’t really look that bad tbh 

I’ll be stuck on metro.  Red line is delayed and everything else is a debacle.  Next pbp won’t be til the 12z Euro when it shows our blizzard hitting us 

[bncho]

BAM WX thinks that the eastern models are "out to lunch" and this thing will shift WNW.

[stormtracker]

Just now, bncho said:

BAM WX thinks that the eastern models are "out to lunch" and this thing will shift WNW.

I’m shocked he thinks this. 

[stormtracker]

10 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

we need @psuhoffman to come sing us words of wisdom...let it be....

About 2,450 of them 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Icon looks vastly improved over 6z thru 78hrs but will it be enough? 

It’s pretty close to going boom for us….still in the game.