January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Terpeast]

Looking at 6z euro at 54, it looks like it's gonna get harder to get that neg tilt

[osfan24]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Looking at 6z euro at 54, it looks like it's gonna get harder to get that neg tilt

Not surprising. I think this one is gone. The AI models being along the coast/out to sea is the writing on the wall.

[Ji]

Just looking at 6z euro early it feels Eastish

If we’re going to see a big change it will be at 12z or 0z

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looking at 6z euro at 54, it looks like it's gonna get harder to get that neg tilt

Comparing to yesterday's 6z big hit

[Ji]

Comparing to yesterday's 6z big hit

Yes we get it

[Terpeast]

11 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Not surprising. I think this one is gone. The AI models being along the coast/out to sea is the writing on the wall.

Agreed

[stormy]

If the 06 GFS verifies (it won't)....  Bob Chill would have snow half way up to his knees, While I settle for 3 or 4 inches............  That's ok, I'm not greedy. 

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Yes we get it

[Ji]

What a terrible 24 hours since yesterdays high

We cannot seem to get prolonged heavy daytime snow in this area ever

[osfan24]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

What a terrible 24 hours since yesterdays high

We cannot seem to get prolonged heavy daytime snow in this area ever

Definitely disappointing. On the back of this past weekend storm and with the crazy cold we have had, a huge blizzard would have vaulted this winter into rare territory and given it a chance to be one of the best ever.

[snowfan]

[Heisy]

Comparing to yesterday's 6z big hit

So absolutely frustrating that literally all we needed was that TPV to stretch slightly farther W and we probably see a blizzard from VA to SNE. Still, rooting on folks in SE

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

So absolutely frustrating that literally all we needed was that TPV to stretch slightly farther W and we probably see a blizzard from VA to SNE. Still, rooting on folks in SE

There may be a few twists and turns left, but we are getting to a point of near consensus in general terms to think it's slipping/slipped away.

[MickeyTim6533]

Just now, mitchnick said:

There may be a few twists and turns left, but we are getting to a point of near consensus in general terms to think it's slipping/slipped away.

sadly, think its cooked

[mitchnick]

Pivotal has stopped at 57 hrs on the 6z Euro. Any other vendors stuck?

[MickeyTim6533]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Pivotal has stopped at 57 hrs on the 6z Euro. Any other vendors stuck?

don't bother, its a big miss east

[Jersey_Snowhole]

3 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

don't bother, its a big miss east

It’s stuck on stormvista and weatherbell you must have exclusive access. 

[clueless]

Hard to believe a miracle shift occurs at 12z.  Gotta let this go. 

[MickeyTim6533]

Just now, clueless said:

Hard to believe a miracle shift occurs at 12z.  Gotta let this go. 

totally agree. this one is a goner

[87storms]

Missed the 0z runs, but before I crashed I noticed the wind direction at the lower levels is really cutting off moisture from the gulf and even Atlantic until the system cranks. Seems we’d be relying entirely off the coastal cranking early enough, which is the opposite of the last system that had southwest winds feeding us moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf.

[snowfan]

Yall are a sad bunch. Ive never seen such a collection of eeyores. 

[Kmlwx]

9 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

sadly, think its cooked

 

6 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

don't bother, its a big miss east

 

1 minute ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

totally agree. this one is a goner

I think we got it  

[AlexD1990]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

 

 

I think we got it  

Yeah,.it's definitely a miss for Reading, PA 

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

 

 

I think we got it  

Hopefully the beach can hold on. I'd love a weekend at the beach. 

[RevWarReenactor]

It had heartbreak written all over it anyway. Even if it did trend west to some degree. Someone was going to get 25 inches while 50 miles away was going to smoke cirrus. Whether it was DC or Winchester. Someone was getting hosed. It was just a matter of who. I'd honestly rather have it be a full miss than to watch a blizzard 50 miles away. 

[Ji]

Don’t the gfs handle the northern stream better in Nina than the other euro

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

totally agree. this one is a goner

I honestly don’t know where Reading is (I don’t mean that snarnikly), but there’s a good chunk of this forum in eastern areas (beaches, etc) that are very much in the game.

[Kmlwx]

We are probably going to have to wait for the blocking to reload/recycle for our next big dog threat (if there is one). In the interim - we probably need to keep our eyes out for a snow pack refresher that shows up at short leads - like a northern stream system that drops an inch or two. Good news is the ensembles still look pretty solid going into February in terms of the blocking reload. 

[mitchnick]

Eps updated....meh

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, nj2va said:

I honestly don’t know where Reading is (I don’t mean that snarnikly), but there’s a good chunk of this forum in eastern areas (beaches, etc) that are very much in the game.

Yeah it’s a miss for most to the east now, but not by that much.  Also GEFS just trended the other way.  It’s only Tuesday…