January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[tstate21]

00z GEFS has some large changes from the prior runs, even showing some inland members and the majority of the members are inside the ensemble mean.  

 

[SnowDreamer]

4 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Ukie LP position looks good but absolutely anemic NW precip shield

Yeah, it’s a Norfolk special like the CMC. But at 12Z it was almost completely OTS. Progress

[rjvanals]

4 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

Ukie is worlds better than 12Z

Everyone in OCMD and Richmond should make a midnight run to the grocery store to stock up on supplies 

[Ji]

As a lover of digital snow I want to cry

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

What pushed it east last minute?

Its not 'last minute'. Look at the orientation of the ridge over S Canada north of the GLs- it folds over- essentially an anticyclonic wave break

[Ji]

Yeah, it’s a Norfolk special like the CMC. But at 12Z it was almost completely OTS. Progress

Such a Niña map

[Amped]

5 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Everyone in OCMD and Richmond should make a midnight run to the grocery store to stock up on supplies 

Just like last week's storm.

[bncho]

GEFS much more NW, much better

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

GEFS much more NW, much better

Baby steps. We still have time too, but not too much 

[overcautionisbad]

8 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Everyone in OCMD and Richmond should make a midnight run to the grocery store to stock up on supplies 

But they aren't open at midnight anymore since 2020

[snowmagnet]

46 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Canadian so far seems relatively unchanged. Maybe a bit north with the overall pattern, though it could just be a bit slower. 

You mean the same as it was at 6z? 20" for all? 

[AlexD1990]

28 minutes ago, bncho said:

@AlexD1990 is going to get 30+" on this CMC run

I got a notification for this and clicked it and this was the first new post I saw after 2 hours, I was like WTF.

26 minutes ago, bncho said:

congrats, richmond!

Then I saw this, and well, you weren't wrong lol. Holy fucking shit. Not that it's ever gonna happen, but I think that would be a record breaker for most of the reporting stations in the area, and I think that would break the state snowfall record too.

11 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

Yeah, it’s a Norfolk special like the CMC. But at 12Z it was almost completely OTS. Progress

JFC that's a razor sharp gradient. A 20 minute drive would take you from 0" to 8-9"

[snowmagnet]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

GEFS much more NW, much better

Ensembles.. Better at this range anyway. 

[stormtracker]

20 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

Randy should be posting the low quality maps for the relevant times in just about an hour or so

Indeed.  Prob by like 12:35 or so

[Nomz]

Can someone post the GEFS member snowmaps?

[Disc]

GFS AI Ens continues its trend NW.

 

[AlexD1990]

Thing looks like a fuckin hurricane on the CMC

[IUsedToHateCold]

34 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

That's something

They call these clown maps for a reason. Really, multiple reasons. A: They have an unbelievable look. B: They're funny as hell. 

I mean, I don't understand fluid dynamics, so I shouldn't talk. But I know climo, and there's no way that this map is ever going to verify even if the storm took the track that was advertised. 

Bring on the King. 

[bncho]

This was the same lead time where everything shifted NW for the storm two days ago. We lost the long flat overrunning look on the 00z runs on Jan 19 and it became evident that we were going to amp up. The CMC was the first to show this.

[overcautionisbad]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

This was the same lead time where everything shifted NW. We lost the long flat overrunning look on the 00z runs on Jan 19 and it became evident that we were going to amp up. The CMC was the first to show this.

Are you saying I need to buy a snow blower?

[stormtracker]

And we're off.  Euro's a running

[bncho]

0z Euro AI worse, OTS
I have no idea what h5 looks like though

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

0z Euro AI worse, OTS
I have no idea what h5 looks like though

At 12z this and the regular Euro followed copied each other...

[Rnt1969]

Mommy…..mommy….sucking thumb in the fetal position


.

[Nomz]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

0z Euro AI worse, OTS
I have no idea what h5 looks like though

12z for comparison

[wxmeddler]

AIFS is ever so slightly S and E of 18z which is ever so slightly further E of the 12z at 0z Sunday.

[wasnow215]

PBP?

[EHoffman]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

0z Euro AI worse, OTS
I have no idea what h5 looks like though

Doesn't even look that bad up top.  Maybe a tick east with the NS energy.  I think it just shaved the NW precip shield back

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, wasnow215 said:

PBP?

Still early...but AI Euro starting off bad isn't encouraging....brb

[wxmeddler]

AIFS-Op definitely trending in the wrong direction today.