January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

41 minutes ago, bncho said:

Reminder that 3-6" shown there is more like 5-10" with ratios

yea that aint going to do it for me...even with ratios

[MDsnowPRO]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

yea that aint going to do it for me...even with ratios

Don’t ever change 

[dukeblue219]

5 minutes ago, Thewiledcard said:

Am I missing something?? I wasn’t an ace at math but I feel I am close? *shrugs

0.25" x 15 = 3.75"

You're getting grief on the "4-8" because 8" would be a 32:1 ratio

[anotherman]

I know I seem really confident here... I am not.  And I have no special insight.  But I do know if the trend across guidance of the last 2 weeks or so, ever since the current pattern started of severe -AO and a retrogressing longwave pattern, this will look nothing like what people think of when they say "miller b".  Does that mean this hits...probably not, most of our threats fail, even in a year like 2010, we remember the big hits...we don't remember the 2 storms in December that failed before Dec 19, or the one around New Years, or the one in mid January that made Ji go thermal nuclear and blow up the thread, or the 2 later in February or the one in March that made Ji say the season was ruined.  Even in the absolute BEST possible patterns we fail more than we win...but if we get a good pattern and have it lock in for a significant period of our cold season...we do usually eventually win...and I think we will this year also.  
What I can say about this threat specifically is that unless guidance is way off on the depth of the trough this is not similar to our typical miller b setup.  Could it trend towards that...yea, if the NS wave starts not digging as far south...if we start to see it start to trend northeast...then yea this becomes a typical NYC to Boston storm and yes that could happen.  
But...know what else could happen...if the seasonal trend continues and the whole trough ends up another 200 miles west 5 days from now...this ends up closer to January 1996 than a typical miller b.  That was a northern stream wave that dove in and captured a weak STJ wave also...but it dove in through the Dakotas and right now guidance has this diving in through Wisconsin.  Shift this west a bit and its almost identical to the 1996 setup.  It's also coming as a previous -3stdv greenland block dissipates as it retrogrades into central Canada, which was the setup in 1996 also! 
I am NOT saying this is a 1996 repeat...just that its a lot closer to that type of thing than I think many realize.  If we only get a slight west shift it becomes similar to January 1966, take a look at the h5 in the KU book for that one...its damn close just that one the NS wave dove in around the WI/MN border...slightly west of where guidance has this one.   
It could go the other way, past does not always predict future.  Maye the trend this time is north...or east...or south and the deep south gets clobbered...but if whats been the most common guidance error were to play out...we would end up with a serious threat here from this...that's all I am saying.  
Oh and BTW 1996 looked almost identical to what the models are showing right now when it was 3-5 days out...it didn't morph into a huge storm for us until 24 hours out.  Remember when Bob Ryan cam back on the 11 news after his actual weather segment to say "we're getting a blizzard" at the end of the broadcast.  They didn't even have graphics yet...but the 0z guidance all came out during the 11 news and showed it shifting north.  Until then it was a richmond to NC blizzard.  Yea the guidance is better now...so maybe that correction would happen around day 4 instead of day 1-2 but it's not so much better that a similar error can't happen 5-6 days out from the storm.  

[Bob Chill]

Weenie post lol. Euro AI did an excellent job @ d4-5 with the previous storm. Here's the vort panel 96 hours out for 12z sunday:

 

Here's the verification:

 

 

The surface forecast was rock solid for 4 days out. H5 was really good too except the northern stream verified digging further west and a more amplified system. So if you apply this logic to the upcoming potential storm.... heh

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, bncho said:

Here are the actual three major possibilities.

1. Jan 2000-like (and I guess Jan 1996-like, because of PSU ), a blizzard from Raleigh to Boston. 
2. Jan 2022-like, a blizzard from the Outer Banks, Delmarva, Jersey Coast, and eastern New England. The I-95 corridor receives snowfall, but it's less than option one.
3. OTS; it's a fish storm.

What is the most likely possibility? I am not sure. These are the three major possibilities, not all the possibilities.

4.

[Thewiledcard]

Just now, dukeblue219 said:

0.25" x 15 = 3.75"

You're getting grief on the "4-8" because 8" would be a 32:1 ratio

Fair fair. But my thought was the range of .25-.5. It’s not like the.25 shaded area would all get .25. However, I withdraw my comment. 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

4.

Congrats, Chicago!

[psuhoffman]

Who am I to stop a good ratio argument, but the argument assumes something about the EPS mean that isn't true.  That .3-.5 qpf mean is from various clusters of permutation outcomes.  There is a camp of EPS members that tuck the low into the Delmarva, and those solutions likely have 1"+ QPF.  Then there are the OTS solutions which mostly have nothing.  So arguing over what the ratios would be on a mean that is the compromise of two different permutations is really....well I'll be nice and say "not the best use of your time".  

[jayyy]

Very nice Mitch, the MOGREPS didn't actually do too bad with this past storm (I think at least )

I, too, ask for MOGREPS when I run out. I prefer green over purple

[Thewiledcard]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Who am I to stop a good ratio argument, but the argument assumes something about the EPS mean that isn't true.  That .3-.5 qpf mean is from various clusters of permutation outcomes.  There is a camp of EPS members that tuck the low into the Delmarva, and those solutions likely have 1"+ QPF.  Then there are the OTS solutions which mostly have nothing.  So arguing over what the ratios would be on a mean that is the compromise of two different permutations is really....well I'll be nice and say "not the best use of your time".  

Appreciate the explanation!

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

Congrats, Chicago!

That’s the one.  

[mitchnick]

18z Ukie ensembles look very much like the 18z Eps. Still need to get that left shift some.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

18z Ukie ensembles look very much like the 18z Eps. Still need to get that left shift some.

What’s gonna pull it west?  Seems like the trough/ridge position will be decided by Wednesday.  That will be telling

[DaleCityDave]

Just now, BristowWx said:

What’s gonna pull it west?  Seems like the trough/ridge position will be decided by Wednesday.  That will be telling

The hopes and dreams of weenies everywhere! Don’t underestimate our collective power!

[mappy]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

$99/yr for Pivotal. It's so cheap it's worth it.

Worth every penny. Love their soundings too. 

[psuhoffman]

The way the math really works…that .4 qpf mean is the product of different outcomes averages. The truth is the median snowfall for IAD is nothing!  Thats because about 60% of the eps members have absolutely no snow and are too far east. The mean among the other 40% that have a more amplified solution isn’t .4 it’s closer to .8 at IAD. And if the most amplified 20% are correct  it’s closer to 1” Qpf. 
 

So the math says the most likely outcome is we get nothing. But there is about a 40% chance is a storm and in that case a good chance it will be a significant one with some members already looking like a 1996 type event. 

[Bob Chill]

@psuhoffman I checked Cips analogs and 1996 isn't on the list but there are some notables in the top 5. 3/2/1980 is #1. That one buried the Hampton roads area. Not sure what happened in DC but i think it was a storm. Jan 2011 is #3 lol. We should just blend those 2 and call it a forecast. 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 21Z NBM; don't understand it but it looks really good!

[winter_warlock]

LWX posted this. So they must at least  be thinking about it...

 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 21Z NBM; don't understand it but it looks really good!

I believe the NBM is a blend of all models 

[HighStakes]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman I checked Cips analogs and 1996 isn't on the list but there are some notables in the top 5. 3/2/1980 is #1. That one buried the Hampton roads area. Not sure what happened in DC but i think it was a storm. Jan 2011 is #3 lol. We should just blend those 2 and call it a forecast. 

 

I think 5 inches got up to BWI in 1980. I believe the storm was on a Sunday when Maryland lost in ACC Tournament Championship game to Duke.

[jayyy]

We don’t need to see flush hits, but we definitely want to see things continue to move in our direction at 0z. The important stuff that occurs out west unfolds sub 100 hours from now. So while we have plenty of time, we also don’t have an eternity

[EHoffman]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

I believe the NBM is a blend of all models 

Wait the National Blend of Models is a blend of models?

[winter_warlock]

Just now, EHoffman said:

Wait the National Blend of Models is a blend of models?

I only  said that cause  the poster said he didn't understand it lol

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

I believe the NBM is a blend of all models 

That is what I thought...what blend through 18Z gives us this high an amount?

[EHoffman]

Just now, Weather Will said:

That is what I thought...what blend through 18Z gives us this high an amount?

People have said that it heavily weights the EPS, but yeah a bit of a weird look.

[Dendrimer77]

15 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

What’s gonna pull it west?  Seems like the trough/ridge position will be decided by Wednesday.  That will be telling

I think a stronger low formation should pull it slightly northwest...maybe

[Chris78]

Just now, Weather Will said:

That is what I thought...what blend through 18Z gives us this high an amount?

I thought @high risk stated a few days ago that it's heavily weighted with ensembles leaning more on the EPS family  if I understood him correctly. 

 

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

That is what I thought...what blend through 18Z gives us this high an amount?

The CMC is probably skewing it.