January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Steve25]

Side note. 18z GFS and Euro top out with their high temps in the mid-teens in Baltimore Wednesday-Saturday. Lows flirting with 0 every night. 
 

Weather app has Baltimore getting into the 20s each day this week. Intrigued to see where the temps actually end up. 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

That would be painful if that was the final solution but there was a time in the past that look this far out would be drool worthy. No clue if this comes up but at 4-5 days out im not too upset at that look

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

i hate it because there is no blue over my house. This close out i want to be in the bullseye as west as it can possibly be

Its a Nina. East gets rocked. You get gray at best.

[Amped]

Keeps us in the game at least.

[GreyHat]

Personally I wouldn't be mad if it misses us. Just notified by Delmarva Power about more outages due to heavy ice on trees and strong winds as trees have come down.

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

2 feet in ocean city while we smoke cirrus. Sounds like a good spot to be 4.5 days out

Off the coast of VA Beach also normally doesn't get 25" of snow. I've seen 25" of snow in the lowlands. Just sayin...

[Ephesians2]

1 minute ago, overcautionisbad said:

This will find a way to miss Richmond I just know it. Oh well, got my nice 5 inch storm back in early December. 3 inches of whatever yesterday was lol

 

And my memory runs together but didnt Central Va get another little like 4 inch snow in early December? Swear there was two

Yep - we did really well in early December, then reverted back to our climo with the latest storm. It is what it is, and that sleet pack isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

[osfan24]

Right in the game. Adjustments like the last storm will have us buried.

[Bob Chill]

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah its a hell of a hit to me lol

If I was your neighbor I'd be feeling pretty good right now lol. Having the euro and ai firmly in your corner is a great place to be. Leads aren't that long and much of the important stuff transpires by hr96. Seeing both euros honing in on that is a big confidence booster.

I just want some clean snow so even the icon with its much shallower dig put a smile on my face. Maybe I'm in a good spot but I'm not feeling safe in any way. I tossed the gfs completely after seeing the run over run trend in the euros. My wag is the 0z gfs will make a decisive move towards the euros

[overcautionisbad]

1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said:

Yep - we did really well in early December, then reverted back to our climo with the latest storm. It is what it is, and that sleet pack isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

Guess I cant complain for being at around 12 for the season. Who knows? Maybe this verifies or even bumps NW a bit and makes everyone happy

[NorthArlington101]

Long as someone along the shore is willing to open their house up, I’m cool with that outcome!

[tgleon]

If that's "not a hit", you all are either pretty spoiled by this last storm or from New England 

Or living in Loudoun and not Sussex County, DE


.

[bncho]

the spire with 3 feet for bob chill!

[mitchnick]

I don't think anyone posted the Ukie ensembles from 12z. Recall the operational was a miss, but not so with the ensemble mean. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

I don't thing anyone posted the Ukie ensembles from 12z. Recall the operational was a miss, but not so with the ensemble mean. 

Very nice Mitch, the MOGREPS didn't actually do too bad with this past storm (I think at least )

[Solution Man]

Buckle up people.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

Not feeling this one.  I hate coastals.  It’s all or nothing.  Overrunning lows from the SW are the way to go.  

People keep saying this. But SWFE/WAA events have issues too.  Sure there are less moving parts but that doesn’t mean easier. You need the perfect thermal boundary placement. We still need the cold to be south of us. If the low Amplifies to our west we will still flip. If it’s under amped or the boundary presses south we get suppressed. We’ve barely had any coastals the last 9 years. We’ve had dozens of SWFEs and yesterday was the first warning level snow I’ve had from any of them and it was anything but easy and ended up half sleet and only worked because of an anomalous cold wave!  
 

Meanwhile my hit rate on coastal is way way way higher. We’ve barely had any frankly but the handful we have had make up my only decent snowstorms since 2016, which was a coastal btw. 
 

I just don’t see all this evidence that SEFEs are easier way to score big snowstorms here. Frankly imo the biggest reason we’ve not had much snow (other than it’s been warm, although these 2 things are related because I’d the thermal boundary is way to our NW we aren’t getting coastals) is that we’ve had almost no coastal storms the last 9 years. 

[overcautionisbad]

6 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Right in the game. Adjustments like the last storm will have us buried.

I don't know man. I feel like this one has to go well to hit Richmond. Very well to hit DC. It just feels like if anything it shifts East on us

 

Maybe, I'm wrong and someone will correct. But I just don't think the tendency of this setup is NW shifts like the last one

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

Yep - we did really well in early December, then reverted back to our climo with the latest storm. It is what it is, and that sleet pack isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

I'm actually right at climo which is surprising but also a testament to how bad my climo is LOL. I can't find a detailed climo map but I think climo is around 12" and sitting at 11.1 in January feels good. I was around 12" last year too. If we truly are entering a longer term blocking cycle my move south might not be as bad in the snow dept as I assumed. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I don't thing anyone posted the Ukie ensembles from 12z. Recall the operational was a miss, but not so with the ensemble mean. 

Holy snowy balls Batman 

Mitch you’re the only one I ever see post those, most don’t have access. There are no free outlets I know of and most pay ones don’t even offer it, so this is your responsibility lol 

[snowmagnet]

19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

With Ji, it all begins and ends in Leesburg. Personally, I'm 100% good with the euroAI and I have wiggle room so I'm personally fine with the entire shield shifting 75 miles NW. It's a backyard sport though. If I could lock up the AI run i would. 

But he's got the JMA...

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Holy snowy balls Batman 

Mitch you’re the only one I ever see post those, most don’t have access. There are no free outlets I know of and most pay ones don’t even offer it, so this is you’re responsibility lol 

$99/yr for Pivotal. It's so cheap it's worth it.

[peribonca]

Interesting that the big snow totals extend so far west.

[NorthArlington101]

EPS a very nice tick better on precip. 

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I don't think anyone posted the Ukie ensembles from 12z. Recall the operational was a miss, but not so with the ensemble mean. 

Mitch, what did the ukie ens look like down my way? 

[mitchnick]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

EPS a very nice tick better on precip. 

 

[snowmagnet]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

People keep saying this. But SWFE/WAA events have issues too.  Sure there are less moving parts but that doesn’t mean easier. You need the perfect thermal boundary placement. We still need the cold to be south of us. If the low Amplifies to our west we will still flip. If it’s under amped or the boundary presses south we get suppressed. We’ve barely had any coastals the last 9 years. We’ve had dozens of SWFEs and yesterday was the first warning level snow I’ve had from any of them and it was anything but easy and ended up half sleet and only worked because of an anomalous cold wave!  
 

Meanwhile my hit rate on coastal is way way way higher. We’ve barely had any frankly but the handful we have had make up my only decent snowstorms since 2016, which was a coastal btw. 
 

I just don’t see all this evidence that SEFEs are easier way to score big snowstorms here. Frankly imo the biggest reason we’ve not had much snow (other than it’s been warm, although these 2 things are related because I’d the thermal boundary is way to our NW we aren’t getting coastals) is that we’ve had almost no coastal storms the last 9 years. 

I love Coastals. It's threading the needle, but they give us the goods if they get it in there. 

[Thewiledcard]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EPS a very nice tick better on precip. 

.25 qpf would be 4-8 inches with 15-1 rations. For where we sit now, I would definitely take.

[mitchnick]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Mitch, what did the ukie ens look like down my way? 

 

[NorthArlington101]

.25 qpf would be 4-8 inches. 

I never count my ratio chickens until they hatch. Just want the storm first. But would *hope* we do better here than 10:1.