January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, StormyClearweather said:

Last Monday's 12Z GFS for this past weekend's storm:

 

But yeah, would prefer every model agreed we's a gettin' a blizzy. 

Past storm was a different setup synoptically tho wasnt it? I am not hedging any bets regardless.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

At 138 the EPS has a lotta members that would work for us. 

[konksw]

I’d rather it be too east right now. 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

No, check out the January 2022 blizzard for more. 

Perhaps you don't remember it because there isn't much to remember for these parts. But in summary Atlantic City got 16 inches while we watched.

Oh no I remember it trust me, lol But in this case what we've seen so far has just been a wave pushed out with no time to amplify for a blizzard for anybody but maybe far northeast

[Ephesians2]

EPS southeast of 06z but still with some more tucked members. definitely a big step back on the snowfall mean - went from 4" in DC at 10:1 6z to 2"

[peribonca]

1 minute ago, konksw said:

I’d rather it be too east right now. 

the big storm last Feb trended east... so I'm not sure.

[osfan24]

8 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Yeah. Niñas are known for coastal scrapers and CAPE to Nantucket specials. But it’s also a huge over generalization to say it’ll fail because it’s a niña.

 Not saying it will fail. Just saying that it would fit if it went down that way because of it being a Niña.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh no I remember it trust me, lol But in this case what we've seen so far has just been a wave pushed out with no time to amplify for a blizzard for anybody but maybe far northeast

If this is a trend then it’s one of those things where it’s either a Cape Hatteras blizzard or a Cape Cod blizzard with nothing in between.

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, peribonca said:

the big storm last Feb trended east... so I'm not sure.

Big difference is we were in the bullseye.

[Terpeast]

Means went east, but there is stronger clustering of SLPs further south just off OBX than the previous run. I'd say its noise at this point and wait until 0z tonight to make any prescriptive statements on where this is going.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

If this is a trend then it’s one of those things where it’s either a Cape Hatteras blizzard or a Cape Cod blizzard with nothing in between.

We don't really know what the trend is yet, lol These were the first runs that went back east again so we'll just have to see what they look like later.

[Terpeast]

If anything, 12z EPS is similar to 0z.

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

EPS southeast of 06z but still with some more tucked members. definitely a big step back on the snowfall mean - went from 4" in DC at 10:1 6z to 2"

Getting a weird vibe here that spots that messed out yesterday cash in next weekend and vice versa ie southeastern zones in this sub

[LeesburgWx]

 

Pulled from NE Thread

[Nomz]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

 

Pulled from NE Thread

Super mixed bag. Can't really tell anything right now.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

EPS shows all options on the table except a cutter, nuclear tuck crush job, OTS, and coastal scraper.  I like it at this range. 

[LeesburgWx]

 

This shows it better

[Chris78]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

 

This shows it better

Can you post the 6z for comparison?

[TowsonWeather]

All the folks saying "I'd rather this be east" and "we don't wanna be in the bullseye this far out" and "right where we want it" are very much off base here, imo.

This is a very very different type of storm than the one we just had - it's not a huge storm banging into a cold airmass from the southwest. Synoptically, there is a pretty razor thin margin for this thing to amplify and go negative quickly enough to become the coastal crawling monster we want it to be. The whole trough is WAY too east for anything else to work. The blizzard scenario for us is already at the far western end of the envelope of realistic possibilities. There's no way this cuts or goes west of us, it's essentially meteorologically impossible for it to do so.

We want every run to be crushing us - because there's a pretty thin line between a big storm for us and something OTS or a Hatteras/Cape Cod scraper or New England recurve bender, and every run that comes in on the wrong side of that line reduces the chances that something magic happens for us.

[Terpeast]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

 

This shows it better

So as we can see, there are 3 main scenarios/clusters - 1) way OTS fish storms, no one gets anything except maybe cape cod gets clipped, 2) storm tracks from OBX NNE with some tucks/scrapers, 3) miller B esque storms bombing out too late for us.

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

 

This shows it better

There are some members way east but seems the th biggest cluster is on the coast. 

[stormy]

I'm not at all surprised at the 12z Euro.  I posted at 7 am that I was not enthusiastic about the EURO.

But, the GEM, GEPS, GEFS and GFS all shifted toward snow.

I'm honestly not enthralled with the deterministic Euro after it insisted run after run last weekend that I would receive .80 - .90" of freezing rain.  I received .01" freezing rain.  Total failure.

And, the Euro AI ensemble gave me 15.5" to 16.5" of snow for 24 hrs. pre event Friday/Saturday. I received 3 inches of snow and 3 inches of sleet.

The Euro family needs improvement to regain credibility with anyone paying close attention.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

There are some members way east but seems the th biggest cluster is on the coast. 

Exactly my (albeit uneducated) thoughts. Seems like the SLP mean is being dragged by some outliers east. That’s a lot of lows hugging the coast. Not sure we can reasonably ask for anything else at this point. 

[winter_warlock]

7 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

 

This shows it better

 That's real nice for 5 days out!!

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, stormy said:

I'm not at all surprised at the 12z Euro.  I posted at 7 am that I was not enthusiastic about the EURO.

But, the GEM, GEPS, GEFS and GFS all shifted toward snow.

I'm honestly not enthralled with the deterministic Euro after it insisted run after run last weekend that I would receive .80 - .90" of freezing rain.  I received .01" freezing rain.  Total failure.

And, the Euro AI ensemble gave me 15.5" to 16.5" of snow for 24 hrs. pre event Friday/Saturday. I received 3 inches of snow and 3 inches of sleet.

The Euro family needs improvement to regain credibility with anyone paying close attention.

The Euro family is still by far the best model family available.

[Ephesians2]

3 minutes ago, stormy said:

I'm not at all surprised at the 12z Euro.  I posted at 7 am that I was not enthusiastic about the EURO.

But, the GEM, GEPS, GEFS and GFS all shifted toward snow.

I'm honestly not enthralled with the deterministic Euro after it insisted run after run last weekend that I would receive .80 - .90" of freezing rain.  I received .01" freezing rain.  Total failure.

And, the Euro AI ensemble gave me 15.5" to 16.5" of snow for 24 hrs. pre event Friday/Saturday. I received 3 inches of snow and 3 inches of sleet.

The Euro family needs improvement to regain credibility with anyone paying close attention.

Precip type struggles aside, it was a whole lot better than the GFS.

[Alfoman]

Even if we miss out on the bulk of the coastal, we only need a few tenths of an inch of QPF to really generate some fun/meaningful powder given the arctic air being pulled in behind the storm

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Exactly my (albeit uneducated) thoughts. Seems like the SLP mean is being dragged by some outliers east. That’s a lot of lows hugging the coast. Not sure we can reasonably ask for anything else at this point. 

We can ask to be crushed by every run for 144 hours lol.  But yes I agree, at this stage we need to be in the game, and we are. 

[Terpeast]

The key thing to watch on the Euro for the next runs is we need the 500mb s/w to dig WEST over Minnesota at valid time 00z Jan 30. 

The 12z euro didn't dig that as far west as 6z did, and hence the result. So when watching for trends, watch the 500mb vorticity over the Minnesota/Wisconsin/upper lakes.

[winter_warlock]

29 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Good news is this has like a .1% chance of being a runner. It’s either OTS or we pull some gymnastics and it’s closer to the coast. No shot this ends up in WV

Thank God!!