January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[TSSN+]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

All versions of the GFasS aren’t great. 

Generational poverty model. 

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Next folks. The pattern later next week is our best chance of the year; and probably with a simpler recipe to win. Overrunning type of setups. 

This cracks me up every time. There's always a better pattern or threat a bit further out. We are biased by the fuzzyness of future possibilities. As soon as we get near enough to see the flaws in a close threat, we move on to the next. And of course our glimpse of the next with the rosy tinted glasses of ensemble average and smoothing hides the flaws of the next one until it's in range. It happens over and over and over. Somehow it's a lesson in human psychology that is difficult to learn.

The reality is we just don't know which will work out best if any at all. It's still possible Sunday ends up the biggest event of the year for some.

[TSSN+]

Just now, eduggs said:

This cracks me up every time. There's always a better pattern or threat a bit further out. We are biased by the fuzzyness of future possibilities. As soon as we get near enough to see the flaws in a close threat, we move on to the next. And of course our glimpse of the next with the rosy tinted glasses of ensemble average and smoothing hides the flaws of the next one until it's in range. It happens over and over and over. Somehow it's a lesson in human psychology that is difficult to learn.

The reality is we just don't know which will work out best if any at all. It's still possible Sunday ends up the biggest event of the year for some.

Ya if I get smoking cirrus that will probably take over the biggest event of the winter here. 

[87storms]

29 minutes ago, stormy said:

After the 1.20" of rain last week, my rate of fall leveled off a little.

For a 7 day period from 12-19 to 12-26 , my water table dropped .73 Ft.

For the 7 day period from 1-08 to 1-15 my water table only dropped .43 Ft.

Glorious drought mitigation!!!     1.20" last week was 12% of rainfall needed. 

There’s a stream next to where I live that feeds into Carroll Creek which was actually flowing a little from the rain last week. Been a couple days so it’s probably lower now. Really need an App runner/nor’easter track to develop to get back to square one.

[aldie 22]

What's everyone so upset about it wasn't supposed to snow here on Sunday/Monday anyway right? 

[Solution Man]

15 minutes ago, eduggs said:

This cracks me up every time. There's always a better pattern or threat a bit further out. We are biased by the fuzzyness of future possibilities. As soon as we get near enough to see the flaws in a close threat, we move on to the next. And of course our glimpse of the next with the rosy tinted glasses of ensemble average and smoothing hides the flaws of the next one until it's in range. It happens over and over and over. Somehow it's a lesson in human psychology that is difficult to learn.

The reality is we just don't know which will work out best if any at all. It's still possible Sunday ends up the biggest event of the year for some.

You described insanity 

[DDweatherman]

21 minutes ago, eduggs said:

This cracks me up every time. There's always a better pattern or threat a bit further out. We are biased by the fuzzyness of future possibilities. As soon as we get near enough to see the flaws in a close threat, we move on to the next. And of course our glimpse of the next with the rosy tinted glasses of ensemble average and smoothing hides the flaws of the next one until it's in range. It happens over and over and over. Somehow it's a lesson in human psychology that is difficult to learn.

The reality is we just don't know which will work out best if any at all. It's still possible Sunday ends up the biggest event of the year for some.

Unlike some here, I'm not losing sleep over this stuff. If its going to snow however, I'm going to look in the direction of what 20 years of studying this hobby has taught me to look for.... favorable teleconnections, a good source airmass, and precipitation/moisture streams being present. Having strong ENS support at "range" is a part of that, and right now we have it... so yes, many would argue it's our most favorable window of the season with support. Until its not.

[Warm Nose]

31 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Next folks. The pattern later next week is our best chance of the year; and probably with a simpler recipe to win. Overrunning type of setups. 

"iT wAs AlWaYs EaRlY fEbRuArY"

[dailylurker]

34 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Next folks. The pattern later next week is our best chance of the year; and probably with a simpler recipe to win. Overrunning type of setups. 

Have we ever had an overruning event? I always hear how that our easy way to snow yet the last i remember was maybe 2003. Before that like 1993 lol. Moral of my usual pointless posts is that there's NO easy way to snow this far south with like 5 feet of elevation lol

[Imgoinhungry]

God we suck at snow. We are a bunch of losers.


.

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Have we ever had an overruning event? I always hear how that our easy way to snow yet the last i remember was maybe 2003. Before that like 1993 lol. Moral of my usual pointless posts is that there's NO easy way to snow this far south with like 5 feet of elevation lol

Overrunning is the simplest way outside of a classic Miller A. You aren't worrying about any messy wave interactions--just moisture into cold air. And I believe we had that happen a time or two in 2014.

[psuhoffman]

a snow map from the GFS is going to be hilarious 

[dailylurker]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Overrunning is the simplest way outside of a classic Miller A. You aren't worrying about any messy wavr interactions--just moisture into cold air. And I believe we had that happen a time or two in 2014.

They are nice. I'm just frustrated lol. Wasn't that beast in 2003 an overruning event? It dumped all day long as the moisture overran the boundary. Then the low came up the coast that night and dropped 3" of sleet on top of 20 inches of snow.

[WxUSAF]

We got the GFSAI and the GGEM. Well, it’s something.

[JenkinsJinkies]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

a snow map from the GFS is going to be hilarious 

Are you still hopeful for January?

[Maestrobjwa]

Is it just or does the stj seem to be waking up next week on the models?

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

We got the GFSAI and the GGEM. Well, it’s something.

and Canada, well parts of Canada

[Scraff]

I don’t why we aren’t all riding the RGEM train for this weekend. Looks good to me.  F**K the GFS and all its stupidity. Who needs it! 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

and Canada

the country or the model? Because the GGEM is that... 

[TSSN+]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

the country or the model? Because the GGEM is that... 

All of Canada is pulling for us on this one apparently. 

[WxUSAF]

NBM is pretty bullish 

[eduggs]

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Overrunning is the simplest way outside of a classic Miller A. You aren't worrying about any messy wave interactions--just moisture into cold air. And I believe we had that happen a time or two in 2014.

It's never simple. Overrunning also gives you sleet, freezing rain, or rain. And wave interactions can always apply regardless of synoptic setup.

Threats look simpler in the long range because of the ensemble averaging effect. So if you overlay the height field with the precipitation field, it often looks like basic overrunning with flat mid-levels. By the time you get closer to the threat, the ensemble spread significantly narrows, the amplitude of the waves increase, and you see the real synoptic complexity.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

the country or the model? Because the GGEM is that... 

it was a joke about Canada, dry humor

[stormy]

41 minutes ago, 87storms said:

There’s a stream next to where I live that feeds into Carroll Creek which was actually flowing a little from the rain last week. Been a couple days so it’s probably lower now. Really need an App runner/nor’easter track to develop to get back to square one.

We need a complete pattern change.  I have hopes for later spring and summer as an El Nino is predicted to develop.   A spring branch that flows thru. my property perked up a little from the rain but is still very low for January. 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

NBM is pretty bullish 

How if it is a blend of models what model is really showing anything good enough to make it a hit?

[JenkinsJinkies]

7 minutes ago, stormy said:

We need a complete pattern change.  I have hopes for later spring and summer as an El Nino is predicted to develop.   A spring branch that flows thru. my property perked up a little from the rain but is still very low for January. 

Ninas breaking almost always cause the flood gates to open, except for 2023 for some reason.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Are you still hopeful for January?

I still think eventually we get some decent snow.  But we have had a workable to somewhat favorable longwave pattern most of the winter season and have thus far largely wasted it.  It's very frustrating.  

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I still think eventually we get some decent snow.  But we have had a workable to somewhat favorable longwave pattern most of the winter season and have thus far largely wasted it.  It's very frustrating.  

I’ve found that the more you post, the better chance we have. Hopefully you start posting more in the coming weeks.

[TSSN+]

Nothing like the good ole hr 300 storm  on gfs 

[RevWarReenactor]

33 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

"iT wAs AlWaYs EaRlY fEbRuArY"

Until Early February, then Valentines is the period to watch, then its actually late February. Then its early March, remember, it can snow in March! Then people keep tracking potential but they are really just tracking spring. 

Meanwhile we got like 2 inches on the grass during that time.

Happens every year. Last time things were actually good was 2014-2015 season; outside of the blizzard of 2016.