January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Weather Will]

This picture says it all for those of us in the perpetual snowless zone.  Luckily it is just one run of GOOFUS but since it has been showing the same thing for several winters it is getting depressing.

[Jersey Andrew]

2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Let’s face it we are all weenies why the hell else are we here?  I love being here and seeing pbp of models and talking thd possibilities; that alone makes us all weenies enjoy the tracking!! Revel in the snow / weather! 

Yes we are here for the big chase. The next 1/23/2016 or 2/12/2006 or myriad of other huge storms. The past 20 years have produced monsters on East Coast. Just because we are in a 5 year drought does not mean cannot pull off miracle.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

It could be a myriad of things. But also - things that are on like decadal cycles may be to blame. Consider that the modeling tends to be more stable at range for southern stream dominant systems. For many years now there has been a lot of northern stream influence - which the models objectively (not subjectively) are worse at predicting.

Definitely something to this. NS dominant patterns are chaotic- turbulent, with vortices flying around all over the place- very difficult for model guidance to get all the wave interactions and timing correct, which ofc have a big impact on sensible weather. Southern stream dominant patterns tend to be prominent in El Nino years and generally have a "quieter" NS, esp with a NA blocking regime. Just a matter of waiting for a significant SS wave to track eastward and snow on us(hopefully).

[Ji]

Euro 18z isnt convinced that Jan 23-24 is a cutter

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

Euro 18z isnt convinced that Jan 23-24 is a cutter

18z is not even out yet

[Ji]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

18z is not even out yet

its the AI is actually more Dr no than dr no

[Ji]

Euro with a pretty decent shift west but not nearly west enough

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro 18z isnt convinced that Jan 23-24 is a cutter

By the looks of the temps, it'll be a coastal rainstorm for most instead of a cutter rainer. Lol

[CAPE]

[bncho]

Euro is a shift towards the GFS 

[NorthArlington101]

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Euro is a shift towards the GFS 

Still has a ways to go

[bncho]

18z vs 12z

[LP08]

Anybody got the H5 euro maps?  Curious to see what trended in our favor and what to look for.  Pivotal is down for me.

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Still has a ways to go

when the models shift to each other as part of the "compromise" it never works well for us lol

[LP08]

6 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Anybody got the H5 euro maps?  Curious to see what trended in our favor and what to look for.  Pivotal is down for me.

Looks like the “kicker/wave spacing” piece in Canada shifted north some giving the southern piece more room to tilt. 

[TSSN+]

14 minutes ago, bncho said:

18z vs 12z

That’s where the 6z gfs had the snow. Keep going 

[stormtracker]

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Still has a ways to go

Yeah, but a positive step toward the GFS.  Let's see if it can keep going!

[BristowWx]

21 minutes ago, bncho said:

Euro is a shift towards the GFS 

Welp. We’ll get it next time.  Feb will be rockin’

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Looks like the “kicker/wave spacing” piece in Canada shifted north some giving the southern piece more room to tilt. 

i read something by Eric Webb that there could be a significant NW shift in the final 24 hours

 

[winter_warlock]

34 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro 18z isnt convinced that Jan 23-24 is a cutter

That's the aifs

[T. August]

EPS SE of 12z with precip. So frustrating lol.

[stormtracker]

When do we do the weenie "s/w will be better sampled soon"?

[winter_warlock]

53 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

give me number 2 or 7!!!

14 isn't bad either

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

When do we do the weenie "s/w will be better sampled soon"?

Lol But I am curious...is that actually a thing?

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, T. August said:

EPS SE of 12z with precip. So frustrating lol.

Love these post with no context. How about post the images lol

[anotherman]

Lol But I am curious...is that actually a thing?

The energy has not been properly sampled because it’s not onshore yet.

[Paleocene]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

When do we do the weenie "s/w will be better sampled soon"?

That happens at 84 hours out when the satellites cross the poles at the second lagrangian point in space

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, anotherman said:

The energy has not been properly sampled because it’s not on sure yet.

So does that actually make a difference in the accuracy of modeling? (I'm assuming it does?)

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

is it suppose to be 67 degrees on January 27th?

A range of 27-67 can be anticipated as examples