January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Lowershoresadness]

40 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Hobby? Who would choose this as a hobby? This is a mental illness that most of us were born with lol

it freakin better snow soon. getting tired of watching people farting in church vids on youtube

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah, it looks pretty progressive.  but it's a decent small hit like 3 to 5 ish

Sounds better than the weird looking evolution in the previous cycle or two.  Maybe a bit more "stable" so to speak, rather than relying on some jacked-up unlikely scenario?

[bncho]

Nice hit for DC, I'll take this

[baltosquid]

Squandering this over the continued lack of moisture would really sting, can't lie. Step in the right direction but really hope we can find a way to get more out of this. Or else someone is going to have the worst dry slot of their life.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, bncho said:

Nice hit for DC, I'll take this

Close as we’re gonna get to an area wide good outcome with this. And I’m not just saying that because I’m in the jackpot. Looks like the 6z EURO, reasonable outcome. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Close as we’re gonna get to an area wide good outcome with this. And I’m not just saying that because I’m in the jackpot. Looks like the 6z EURO, reasonable outcome. 

Yeah, that's kind of how I feel.  I'd prefer a better shot at an area-wide good amount than hoping things go JUST right so that one small area can score a foot.  Not to say I'd be upset if this somehow turns into a general upper-level MECS event for all!!!

[CAPE]

Looks like an inverted trough deal.. heavier snow is more localized

eta- these features tend to end up further north than modeled.

[bncho]

Well at least the GFS and Euro are more in agreement. Both took steps towards eachother.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Nice hit for DC, I'll take this

Def, but being in the Jack zone at 100+ hours, rarely does it hold.  Expect this to wobble a bunch until we get to about 48.  But I think someone in our forum jacks.  

 

[Maestrobjwa]

45 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Hobby? Who would choose this as a hobby? This is a mental illness that most of us were born with lol

Yeah we need to stop calling this a hobby fr...most of us couldn't walk away if we tried, lol We could shut off all weather sites and we're still gonna wanna know when it’s gonna snow!

[Scraff]

Almost everyone in here will happily take that and run to the bank. Only one individual will still cliff dive. Wonder where this person might be? Maybe at church praying to the snow gods?

[clskinsfan]

Daytime 3-6 for most in the forum? Sign me up man. 

[Solution Man]

We are coming on critical mass and are trending in the right direction 

[mitchnick]

As long as the Gfs, the best snowfall model so far, with the patchy mess, expect to see the rest of modeling follow suit I would guess.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looks like an inverted trough deal.. heavier snow is more localized

eta- these features tend to end up further north than modeled.

Wish I could lock this in though lol

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looks like an inverted trough deal.. heavier snow is more localized

eta- these features tend to end up further north than modeled.

00z/06z Euro had that as well.

[baltosquid]

Canadian h5 is crap. No unified dive from the NS.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Wish I could lock this in though lol

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah we need to stop calling this a hobby fr...most of us couldn't walk away if we tried, lol We could shut off all weather sites and we're still gonna wanna know when it’s gonna snow!

In the immortal words of the late, great Tom Lehrer, in his "Smut" song (@ravensrule might approve!):

"Who needs a hobby, like tennis or philately?  I've got a hobby...re-reading Lady Chatterley!"

[clskinsfan]

GFS is lining us up again I think. 

[bncho]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Canadian h5 is crap. No unified dive from the NS.

The Canadian model is crap lol

[Terpeast]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

GFS is lining us up again I think. 

Cape storm looks better consolidated this run

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Wish I could lock this in though lol

Share with your friends, over the past 10 years we have gotten screwed worse than Jenna Jameson. 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Canadian h5 is crap. No unified dive from the NS.

Only model that looks like that 

[bncho]

GFS looks pretty damn good for the CAPE storm

[stormtracker]

Let’s be for real and realize that dc won’t be a jack and this won’t play out like this. We need a nice evenly distributed storm.  None of this shit excites me because it’s screwy and unlikely to happen.  Just give me a nice evenly spread 4-6 storm and I’ll start vesting. For now, the takeaway we all should have is….we in the game!  

[Solution Man]

@168 hmm

[stormtracker]

Cape storm still just misses with the good stuff

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Let’s be for real and realize that dc won’t be a jack and this won’t play out like this. We need a nice evenly distributed storm.  None of this shit excites me because it’s screwy and unlikely to happen.  Just give me a nice evenly spread 4-6 storm and I’ll start vesting. For now, the takeaway we all should have is….we in the game!  

Yes its a miller b with high bust potential. Best we can expect is 3-5” for many on the forum, 1-3” for others

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

00z/06z Euro had that as well.

I was/am hoping it can morph into something more conventional. Big boom/bust with this depending on exact location.