January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I mean, 6z isn’t too far off that idea actually 

Yeah no phase but it looks like a 2-4/ 3-5" deal with the UL energy rolling through.

[Ralph Wiggum]

6z euro is better upstairs but still too late to develop for the 15th. Has a vigorous Manitoba Mauler diving into the upper mid west on its heels.

[Interstate]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Randy gets SV for free and it’s supposed to be faster

Yeah because it misses frames. It is like the government job report. Get it out as fast as they can only to fill in the blanks later. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah no phase but it looks like a 2-4/ 3-5" deal with the UL energy rolling through.

Will be enough to mothball the futility thread for the season.

[CAPE]

6z a little closer to something for the 18th as it involves some of the energy in the SW instead of leaving it all behind like the 0z run

[CAPE]

Still need to get that NS vorticity dropping in over the ridge to get involved earlier. 18z was close to the outcome I envisioned for the window around the 20th

[mitchnick]

6z is a much better dive south than 0z for the 20th.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

6z is a much better dive south than 0z for the 20th.

Yeah but the big difference(on both 0z and 6z) is later towards the 18th. Ideally it would be more like the 18z run wrt the energy(vorticity ribbon) riding overtop the ridge phasing in early. The biggest improvement on the 6z run over 0z imo is it doesnt leave a ball of energy behind parked in the SW.

 

 

[CAPE]

6z compared to 18z-

[87storms]

7 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Just like last year, and probably more so, southern Canada continues to get crushed. Thanks La Niña. 

Yea,  the southern stream just isn’t there when we need it. Looks like we’re dealing with Miller Bs next week. Meh.

[Ralph Wiggum]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

6z compared to 18z-

I dunno. This may be moving away from the previous looks of an overunning thing with stj involved and turn into mostly NS based Ala my post about the Manitoba Mauler look. Neither is a monster storm look but both solutions are pretty standard ways we can cash in with a 3-5ish type thing. Guess we get the next 2 systems out the way and see which form it decides to take.

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I dunno. This may be moving away from the previous looks of an overunning thing and turn into mostly NS based Ala my post about the Manitoba Mauler look. Neither is a monster storm look but both solutions are pretty standard ways we can cash in with a 3-5ish type thing. Guess we get the next 2 systems out the way and see which form it decides to take.

That's the way it goes with model simulations- previous cycles were likely incorrect with the outcome and as we go forward we get closer to what that will actually be.

And I am fine with a moderate snowfall or 2. All I really expected out of this period. This doesnt look like a 'big dog' pattern to me, but not impossible to get a bigger storm if all the elements interact in just the right way at the right time. Given the lack of blocking that sort of outcome likely increases the risk of rain.

[Terpeast]

32 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That's the way it goes with model simulations- previous cycles were likely incorrect with the outcome and as we go forward we get closer to what that will actually be.

And I am fine with a moderate snowfall or 2. All I really expected out of this period. This doesnt look like a 'big dog' pattern to me, but not impossible to get a bigger storm if all the elements interact in just the right way at the right time. Given the lack of blocking that sort of outcome likely increases the risk of rain.

Yeah, aside from no blocking, this isn’t a SS wave models can see coming half a globe away. It’s more of a NS wave digging far enough south to *maybe* give us something 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, aside from no blocking, this isn’t a SS wave models can see coming half a globe away. It’s more of a NS wave digging far enough south to *maybe* give us something 

Ensemble guidance isn't overly excited, at least not yet. Some recent runs have been hinting, but overall a weakish signal. Still about 10 days out.

[JenkinsJinkies]

41 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This doesnt look like a 'big dog' pattern to me,

I brought this up the other day but this forum has a huge “all or nothing” mentality problem.

[Kay]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

I brought this up the other day but this forum has a huge “all or nothing” mentality problem.

It's really not the whole forum. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, Kay said:

It's really not the whole forum. 

A significant portion of it does.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I brought this up the other day but this forum has a huge “all or nothing” mentality problem.

I think there are plenty of people here who just want some snow. 

[Kay]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

A significant portion of it does.

No. We have...big personalities that make it seem like that. Because everyone chats about what BPs say and think. By the numbers, I'll bet you actual money the majority in the forum are not "all or nothing", which is the expression you used.

[Paleocene]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I think there are plenty of people here who just want some snow. 

Yep. My bar is roads and grass covered in the inner burbs. Cold during and after, enough to sled on, sticks around for a few days. So like 3" min, ideally 4"-6". No slop, no mixing, just a decent small snowstorm. Big dog hunting is not a productive hobby. Last years 4" storms in January were perfect examples of this (and in 2024 too).

[WxUSAF]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Gut instinct is that our best reasonable hope for Thursday/Friday is some widespread light snow with the upper level shortwave passage. This is pretty much the euro-ai solution. 

 

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I mean, 6z isn’t too far off that idea actually 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

15 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

A significant portion of it does.

Really only a handful of the usual suspects tbh.

[JenkinsJinkies]

26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I think there are plenty of people here who just want some snow. 

Based off of what I’ve seen here a 2-4”/3-5” event is still on the table.

Even on the low end of that it’ll be enough to not have to add to the futility list (Baltimore is actually already at the point where it won’t make the list). 

[yoda]

Hmmm

 

[MDScienceTeacher]

3 hours ago, Interstate said:

I don’t know why everyone doesn’t use pivotal weather. It is free and has all the models now. 

I preferred TT because I though that Pivotal didnt have the slider animation feature.. but I realized just a couple of weeks ago that you can set Pivotal to the slider by choosing animation -> forecast loop at the top of the map. 

 

[TSSN+]

8 minutes ago, yoda said:

Hmmm

 

Looks similar to 6z gfs at surface. Low over Delaware with some snow over us. 

[Solution Man]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Looks similar to 6z gfs at surface. Low over Delaware with some snow over us. 

2-4…3-5 type. We take it

[mitchnick]

Icon has snow with both threats, the latter dropping more. Nothing huge with either or combined.

[mitchnick]

That's a beast on the Icon at 180 imho.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That's a beast on the Icon at 180 imho.