January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

It’s not the solution we want, but at least it’s something haha 

It's a good hit.  I'd take

[mitchnick]

I'll take this run in a heartbeat 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

can we not have a high in Arkansas...

too bad the 2nd storm is probably the one...the first had way more potential. We suck at snow sports pretty much everything

There's digital blue, stop pissing in the wheaties dude.

[Weather Will]

It's Day 9 on the GFS.... this one still has a long way to go.

[87storms]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

can we not have a high in Arkansas...

too bad the 2nd storm is probably the one...the first had way more potential. We suck at snow sports pretty much everything

Trae Young and top 8 pick to the rescue? 

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

It's a good hit.  I'd take

I mean ya I’d buy it right now if it stayed like that, but we know it won’t. 

[stormtracker]

Better than I thought.  4 to 8 on SV atari maps.  Which is probably like 3 to 5 on the pretty maps

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's a good hit.  I'd take

Why anyone is scoffing at this I have no idea.

[stormtracker]

[Ji]

yea for the south and east. They deserve it

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Still snowing lightly too.

[Ji]

i know we always say this and it never works out but if take the 18z gfs and the 12z euro and make a baby--you probably got a MECS

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Still snowing lightly too.

I don't use Kuchera unless it shows more snow.  Toss that.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

i know we always say this and it never works out but if take the 18z gfs and the 12z euro and make a baby--you probably got a MECS

And if you put wheels on a Great Dane, you could ride it

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I don't use Kuchera unless it shows more snow.  Toss that.

I assumed it did, that's why I used it. It usually does too. Lol

[Ji]

I assumed it did, that's why I used it. It usually does too. Lol

Always use the snowiest map for Social media hits

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Why anyone is scoffing at this I have no idea.

Yeah I don't get all the scoffing and "ho-hum" here.  This is 10 days away for crying out loud, and there's a decent signal for a moderate (maybe better?) event.  That's all we can ask for and expect at this point, so I think it's a pretty good spot to be in.  This isn't some well-defined classic K-U event that shows up on all guidance a week or so out and never wavers.  It's a much more volatile setup.

 

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

i know we always say this and it never works out but if take the 18z gfs and the 12z euro and make a baby--you probably got a MECS

FFS, didn't you already punt?

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Always use the snowiest map for Social media hits

I'm not here for hits. I want to meet new people and change the world.

[Solution Man]

24 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 

[Blizzard of 93]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'll take this run in a heartbeat 

Absolutely, 18z GFS is a long duration Warning level event this run.

[Kevin Reilly]

18 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

It’s not the solution we want, but at least it’s something haha 

Yea it is 8 days to 12 days out on the 18z GFS guarantee it will be a different solution ride at 0z.

[stormy]

3 hours ago, stormy said:

This puzzle will have many moving parts, but, as currently  depicted, the 95 corridor probably does better than western areas for the 18th and 19th.

I don't like complication.

As I suspected 3 hours ago!

[Eskimo Joe]

21 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Better than I thought.  4 to 8 on SV atari maps.  Which is probably like 3 to 5 on the pretty maps

Low end warning event on a weekend. Where do I sign?

[mitchnick]

2 runs in a row of 4"+ snowfall on any model this year has been hard to come by. I'll call this a victory and hope it's a sign of better things to come.

[stormtracker]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I assumed it did, that's why I used it. It usually does too. Lol

Much better

[Terpeast]

Looking ahead through end of Jan, all ensembles bring a southern/SE ridge after jan 22… but gefs/geps retrogrades the ridge west toward the end of their runs. If they’re correct, that thaw will only last a few days before it gets colder again. Euro wants to keep the SE ridge all the way through, but with mjo going into 7 I think its wrong and will catch up to gefs/geps. 

[benjammin]

18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I assumed it did, that's why I used it. It usually does too. Lol

Short Pump bullseye...

[stormtracker]

15 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looking ahead through end of Jan, all ensembles bring a southern/SE ridge after jan 22… but gefs/geps retrogrades the ridge west toward the end of their runs. If they’re correct, that thaw will only last a few days before it gets colder again. Euro wants to keep the SE ridge all the way through, but with mjo going into 7 I think its wrong and will catch up to gefs/geps. 

Could we see a 2024 style warmup if it verifies? Or will it get muted once again?

[Terpeast]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

Could we see a 2024 style warmup if it verifies? Or will it get muted once again?

You mean when DCA almost reached 80 degrees in Jan? I seriously doubt it happens this time. Feburary, maybe.