TSSN+ Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: It better be the 86-87, 02-03, 09-10 flavor not 72-73 As long as it’s active that’s all I care. The weather has been a snorefest overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Fwiw, Ukie is flat as a frying pan. When isn’t it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Fwiw, Ukie is flat as a frying pan. EURO AI nothing for next week either.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 WB 12Z GEFS has nothing for next 10 days. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: EURO AI nothing for next week either.... Kicker is very strong and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 28 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 12Z GEFS shows a progressive trough moving off the coast. No big coastal storm for next week. 22 minutes ago, frd said: Like you said previously, way too many things need to go right to get significant snow here. Winter Nor'Easters and benchmark storms have gone the way of the dinosaurs. lol…you two bringing the Eeyore? Surprise! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 19 hours ago, CAPE said: I don't think you understand the purpose of ensemble models. Maybe just ignore them? I appreciate your suggestion, but No, I won't ignore them. I fully understand that they are supposed to be more accurate than the deterministic models because of more data input across various parameters. A higher skill score should be achieved, especially for complex systems or longer term considerations. I will develop a comparison chart for ECM/EPS and GFS and GFS ens. Saturdays rain will be a good first comparison. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, mattie g said: lol…you two bringing the Eeyore? Surprise! Just trying to keep expectations in check so people aren't disappointed. The globals are really worthless outside Day 5. Ensembles are ok through Day 10. Just nothing screaming snow storm incoming right now. Hopefully that will change over the next week... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: lol…you two bringing the Eeyore? Surprise! I think the Debbing should be kept to a minimum until after the weekend at least. sounds like the opportunities are there, and were far too far out to be worrying about specifics. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Let’s get this storm to pass us Sunday and see where we go from there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 CFS is quite chilly for February 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Euro pretty different at 500. Can’t see the sfc yet edit: out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 well, this is exactly what you want to see, NS is acting as confluence and not interfering with the main wave 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: CFS is quite chilly for February Mainly BN on Tropical Tidbits, but, as usual, no where near WB even considering WB is F and TT is Celsius. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg®ion=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2026010806&fh=168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 kicker the problem on the euro? Euro v. ICON below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, T. August said: Euro pretty different at 500. Can’t see the sfc yet We need the ULL to be as far east as possible and the northern stream shortwave diving south to be as far west as possible. We need these to at least partially phase, so the ULL needs to be downstream of the developing longwave trof. Otherwise the trof will be positively tilted and a coastal storm is unlikely. Ensembles and AIs have been trending in the wrong direction. Only the ICON shows a successful evolution with this feature. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Kickers are never the problem. They are (usually) a symptom of an unfavorable upper level evolution. It's a dumb term coined by people who don't know what they are talking about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: Kickers are never the problem. They are (usually) a symptom of an unfavorable upper level evolution. It's a dumb term coined by people who don't know what they are talking about. Guess I'm pretty dumb. That's what I picked up from years being here. Anyone here who actually wants to teach folks wanna help out here? 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 WB 12Z EURO Day 7..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO Day 7..... It's a start! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 WB 12Z EURO Day 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Guess I'm pretty dumb. That's what I picked up from years being here. Anyone here who actually wants to teach folks wanna help out here? 2 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Day 8 What happens in between those hours? Snowfall maps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Guess I'm pretty dumb. That's what I picked up from years being here. Anyone here who actually wants to teach folks wanna help out here? No offense was meant. But it's a little like saying a surface high can block storms or that a surface low causes a storm and precipitation. We like to almost anthropomorphize meteorological features that are actually just a reflection of the large-scale upper level atmospheric circulation and evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: It's a start! Yeah...cards are showing up on all of the models. Just need a Royal Flush. That's not too much to ask for. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Southern stream was further east this ECM run. Slightly more phasing. Definitely a positive development! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 WB EURO Day 10 weekend rule in effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 hours ago, winter_warlock said: Been quite a while since we had a miller A coming up from the gulf!!! Hope it holds and I hope other models get on board!! It’s a bit south of the classic passage point over Atlanta but at least it’s from the south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: What happens in between those hours? Snowfall maps? thats the part Weather Will dosent tell you about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Ngl I think it’s time for my break to end as I like what I’m seeing. Will dive into the meteorology some more this afternoon though I think we’re close to something (possibly major) for the 15-20 period. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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