January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[TSSN+]

Gfs about to try and do something at 168 but might develop too far east this run. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

GFS does look like it wants to spin something up in the Gulf around hour 170....if the trough goes negative after that could be game on.

[TSSN+]

Yup fires up late. Congrats Carolina’s this run lol. 

[Solution Man]

She gone this time

[Heisy]

Back that shortwave west just a little bit off that GFS run and it redevelops and rides the coast. Close one


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[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Gfs about to try and do something at 168 but might develop too far east this run. 

Close enough to keep me interested, that's for sure.  Yesterday I was talking about punting this window but today has got me back interested. 

[Heisy]

Back that shortwave west just a little bit off that GFS run and it redevelops and rides the coast. Close one


.

Man, that was a few ticks away from being a monster


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[TSSN+]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Close enough to keep me interested, that's for sure.  Yesterday I was talking about punting this window but today has got me back interested. 

It’s in the vicinity at day 5 plus ya can’t rule anything out 

[Weather Will]

Let's see what the EURO shows...

[mitchnick]

Gem misses but may give some upper low stuff

[Eskimo Joe]

Thus far, the 12z suite gives credence to a storm somewhere in the 1/15 to 1/17 time frame. It doesn't appear to be a cutter either, either it hits us or to our south. That's about all anyone should glean. 

[Terpeast]

That 12z GFS run gives me goosebumps. Like Heisy said, it's so close. 

[Heisy]

Gem misses but may give some upper low stuff

Darn, early on it looked better than 00z with energy dropping in farther W.


.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Terpeast said:

That 12z GFS run gives me goosebumps. Like Heisy said, it's so close. 

Agreed. We're like 12 hours off from a legit event for everyone.

[WxUSAF]

GGEM ole’s us 2-3 times. Tantalizingly close.

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM ole’s us 2-3 times. Tantalizingly close.

Certainly feels like something is gonna pop somewhere. When's the last time we saw a trough like that with energy nearby (probably screwed up the terminology, but you know what I mean, lol)

[stormtracker]

17 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

That 12z GFS run gives me goosebumps. Like Heisy said, it's so close. 

I'm telling yall, cards on the table.   And at this range/point, that's all we can ask for.    

[Scraff]

Just need Dr No to become Dr Yes! LFG! If you want to remain King, prove it MoFo! 

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm telling yall, cards on the table.   And at this range/point, that's all we can ask for.    

i am getting extremely frustrated. Its like our kicker keeps hitting the goal post and bouncing

[TSSN+]

Of course some ridiculous set up developing at the end of gfs run. 

[Mikeymac5306]

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Just need Dr No to become Dr Yes! LFG! If you want to be remain King, prove it MoFo! 

 

[bncho]

lol there's a 1043 high over ontario on the GFS (at the end)

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

lol there's a 1043 high over ontario on the GFS

A key ingredient for any legitimate snowstorm in these parts.

[Weather Will]

12Z GEFS shows a progressive trough moving off the coast.  No big coastal storm for next week.

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Of course some ridiculous set up developing at the end of gfs run. 

We get teased with these mega-overrunning scenarios, but they just seems way to complicated to ever pull off

[frd]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

12Z GEFS shows a progressive trough moving off the coast.  No big coastal storm for next week.

Like you said previously, way too many things need to go right to get significant snow here. Winter Nor'Easters and benchmark storms have gone the way of the dinosaurs.  

 

[Eskimo Joe]

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

We get teased with these mega-overrunning scenarios, but they just seems way to complicated to ever pull off

They seem to be more common in El Nino events, maybe the more active STJ is a requirement for these?

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

They seem to be more common in El Nino events, maybe the more active STJ is a requirement for these?

I’m so ready for El Niño next year. Hope to never see La Niña again lol 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I’m so ready for El Niño next year. Hope to never see La Niña again lol 

It better be the 86-87, 02-03, 09-10 flavor not 72-73

[mitchnick]

Fwiw, Ukie is flat as a frying pan.