January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[cbmclean]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Well lookey here. Gefs looking very close to Eps near the end of its run. 850's are normal and surface a little BN in case you were wondering. 

GEFS has notably more AK ridging, than EPS.  Would love to see a more +PNA.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

What is "cola"?

lol I edited that pretty quickly, and yet 2 of you caught it.

 

[cbmclean]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

lol I edited that pretty quickly, and yet 2 of you caught it.

 

Oh, I missed the obvious on that one.  I thought it was more esoteric like SWFE or FROPA.

[Blizzard of 93]

18z AI ensembles also agree with the good look in week 2.

[Scraff]

Wowww… I check back ONE hour later and suddenly everyone’s absolutely crushing cola? Spiked cola. Obviously. 

I love this place. Don’t like what you hear? Wait like… a minute. Maybe two. Someone will say exactly what you want to hear. Just takes a little patience. And maybe another drink. 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah over the last 10 years we have seen ACTUAL shutout patterns where you roll models foward and see red for days and days...this warmup one is mild but weak with cold air not far away. I'll take this kind of a short-lived "thaw" any day!

It’s honestly normal for these parts. 

[anotherman]

Wowww… I check back ONE hour later and suddenly everyone’s absolutely crushing cola? Spiked cola. Obviously. 
I love this place. Don’t like what you hear? Wait like… a minute. Maybe two. Someone will say exactly what you want to hear. Just takes a little patience. And maybe another drink. 

Any good DIPAs today?

[Scraff]

Just now, anotherman said:

Any good DIPAs today?

RAK Juice Almighty. RaR Hop Isolation Riwaka. 

[anotherman]

RAK Juice Almighty. RaR Hop Isolation Riwaka. 

I’ll have to try those. I had the last Celebration Ale of my winter break.

[Ralph Wiggum]

52 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

GEFS has notably more AK ridging, than EPS.  Would love to see a more +PNA.

Careful what you wish for. With that epo ridge on roids, a + PNA tandem could be too much of a good thing (polar cold but dry). I will roll the dice with the epo and some cpf with a flattish negative pna ejecting waves along the thermal boundary. 

[TSSN+]

Fully expect to go to sleep here soon and wake up to winter canceled again. 

[jayyy]

Careful what you wish for. With that epo ridge on roids, a + PNA tandem could be too much of a good thing (polar cold but dry). I will roll the dice with the epo and some cpf with a flattish negative pna ejecting waves along the thermal boundary. 

Bingo. Give me a -EPO with some blocking and a flattish pna. Nice gradient type pattern with waves ejecting across the south into an established cold dome. The bob chill bowl / train tracks pattern. Much rather that than have both a roided EPO ridge and a spiked PNA.

Simple overrunning setups work around these parts. They haven’t come very often over the past decade, but when they do.. they produce

[Terpeast]

12z eps / 18z gefs both have a retrograding +pna that becomes -epo. Did this happen a lot in 2013-14, or in more recent la nina winters before 2022? I wasn’t around much except for 2016

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Bingo. Give me a -EPO with some blocking and a flattish pna. Nice gradient type pattern with waves ejecting across the south into an established cold dome. The bob chill bowl / train tracks pattern. Much rather that than have both a roided EPO ridge and a spiked PNA.

Simple overrunning setups work around these parts. They haven’t come very often over the past decade, but when they do.. they produce

This. We won with this setup in December 2013.

[Ji]

Fully expect to go to sleep here soon and wake up to winter canceled again. 

The night time runs have been terrible lately. Just ask Mitch west

[anotherman]

12z eps / 18z gefs both have a retrograding +pna that becomes -epo. Did this happen a lot in 2013-14, or in more recent la nina winters before 2022? I wasn’t around much except for 2016

I remember a huge -epo in early 2018, I think.

[stormtracker]

14 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Fully expect to go to sleep here soon and wake up to winter canceled again. 

Give it 5 minutes

[jayyy]

This. We won with this setup in December 2013.

Exactly what I had in mind

[JenkinsJinkies]

34 minutes ago, Ji said:

The night time runs have been terrible lately. Just ask Mitch west

0z-12z cancels winter and Happy Hour lives up to it's name.

[Ji]

Give it 5 minutes

Welcome back

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

  Colds coming back 

That is an old run from yesterday am fwiw

[jayyy]

The night time runs have been terrible lately. Just ask Mitch west

We know for a fact that models have performed very poorly outside of 7-10 days. The warm bias in the east by models 10+ days out has been off the charts for nearly 5 months now. A big western trough keeps getting forecasted, pumping heights to the east, we “torch”.. blah blah blah… it never materializes or ends up being very short lived. Temps have been well below normal all fall and winter. We are bound to see some moderation from time to time.

Why you live and die by 240+ hour digital blue on OP runs knowing even ensembles can barely handle anything outside of 168 hours right now seems like a super stressful way to go about this hobby.

The upcoming pattern isn’t going to have a big storm sniffed out by models 1-2 weeks out. It’s literally useless cliff diving this far out. Much more likely to see something pop up in the mid range (5-6 days) than you are to find a fantasy storm that models lock in on 1-2 weeks out

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 minutes ago, jayyy said:

The upcoming pattern isn’t going to have a big storm sniffed out by models 1-2 weeks out. It’s literally useless cliff diving this far out. Much more likely to see something pop up in the mid range (5-6 days) than you are to find a fantasy storm that models lock in on 1-2 weeks out

Makes me wonder if the 2016 storm was a fluke in that regard.

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, jayyy said:

We know for a fact that models have performed very poorly outside of 7-10 days. The warm bias in the east by models 10+ days out has been off the charts for nearly 5 months now. A big western trough keeps getting forecasted, pumping heights to the east, we “torch”.. blah blah blah… it never materializes or ends up being very short lived. Temps have been well below normal all fall and winter. We are bound to see some moderation from time to time.

Why you live and die by 240+ hour digital blue on OP runs knowing even ensembles can barely handle anything outside of 168 hours right now seems like a super stressful way to go about this hobby.

The upcoming pattern isn’t going to have a big storm sniffed out by models 1-2 weeks out. It’s literally useless cliff diving this far out. Much more likely to see something pop up in the mid range (5-6 days) than you are to find a fantasy storm that models lock in on 1-2 weeks out

you won't convince ji. this is a losing battle. please stop because you are wasting your time. 

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That is an old run from yesterday am fwiw

Oops sry lol I deleted it lol

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Give it 5 minutes

Never really gone.  Check in twice per day, see you ranting and the rollercoaster from we're back to suicide and repeat.  

[Heisy]

This will be gone in 6 hours, but look at that epo ridge cutoff, wth!




That PNA ridge day 7-9 starting to look legit, maybe we get a N/S wave to dive far enough S to redevelop in response to it.


.

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, jayyy said:

We know for a fact that models have performed very poorly outside of 7-10 days. The warm bias in the east by models 10+ days out has been off the charts for nearly 5 months now. A big western trough keeps getting forecasted, pumping heights to the east, we “torch”.. blah blah blah… it never materializes or ends up being very short lived. Temps have been well below normal all fall and winter. We are bound to see some moderation from time to time.

Why you live and die by 240+ hour digital blue on OP runs knowing even ensembles can barely handle anything outside of 168 hours right now seems like a super stressful way to go about this hobby.

The upcoming pattern isn’t going to have a big storm sniffed out by models 1-2 weeks out. It’s literally useless cliff diving this far out. Much more likely to see something pop up in the mid range (5-6 days) than you are to find a fantasy storm that models lock in on 1-2 weeks out

And these are the days of our lives..

 

[bncho]

11 minutes ago, Heisy said:

This will be gone in 6 hours, but look at that epo ridge cutoff, wth!




That PNA ridge day 7-9 starting to look legit, maybe we get a N/S wave to dive far enough S to redevelop in response to it.


.

hey chuck, how do you like that 585 dm over alaska?

[bncho]

lol the end of the gfs was gonna be something