January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Silly im only 6' tall

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Looks good to me 

Don’t read page 43

[JenkinsJinkies]

21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Didnt he just cancel winter for the 3rd time a mere 2 days ago?

If he cancelled he would’ve changed back to heat miser.

[87storms]

Are we at the “bus is in the shop” portion of prime winter?

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Looks good to me 

And REALLY close to good here, I'll take.

[high risk]

33 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I apologize if I came off as model bashing in the general sense, that wasn't my intention and I can see that my statement was a bit unfair. We've seen incredible advances in modeling both physical and AI, and seeing 0.6-0.8 correlations in 500mb anomalies from 10+ days out is an incredible feat. I only meant that their performance have collectively taken a hit lately in the 11-15 day range especially in the past 5-6 months. In the grand scheme of things, on a global scale, they still perform better than 10+ years ago. But regionally, they have been struggling with the trough/ridge placements such that we're seeing wild swings in our forecasted sensible weather in our back yards. 

Again, sorry about that.

     

            I appreciate that, but I honestly wasn't offended by your post.    It has definitely been a rough period lately in the extended range.   To me, the fact that we have higher expectations now for Week 2 forecasts speaks highly to the progress that has been made.    We just have to remember that certain patterns / transitions still give the models fits, and identifying those in advance is not trivial.

[mitchnick]

17 minutes ago, high risk said:

     

            I appreciate that, but I honestly wasn't offended by your post.    It has definitely been a rough period lately in the extended range.   To me, the fact that we have higher expectations now for Week 2 forecasts speaks highly to the progress that has been made.    We just have to remember that certain patterns / transitions still give the models fits, and identifying those in advance is not trivial.

Well, if this generation of AI modeling doesn't work out, I'm sure the next generation, JI modeling, will solve all your problems. 

[wxdude64]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Well, if this generation of AI modeling doesn't work out, I'm sure the next generation, JI modeling, will solve all your problems. 

Would that automatically cancel/uncancel winter with each run? 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

That scenario and time frame has been showing up on one model, ensemble, or another for a day and a half or 2 day, so the "threat" looks legit. It would be nice to get multiple model/ensemble support, then hold it. Once at that point, we can get Jeb to start a winning thread.

It's very 12/5/09 vibes.

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Love this setup. Classic boundary SWFE sorta thing without diving deep into the 500mb maps. Hey @CAPEdoesnt this look like what we were discussing?

Well, not exactly. What I want is a shortwave riding the thermal boundary with cold HP to the NW pressing southward, not a goddamn 998 LP over the Great lakes lol.

This-

[CAPE]

This setup would end up mostly rain for the majority of our region.

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Well, not exactly. What I want is a shortwave riding the thermal boundary with cold HP to the NW pressing southward, not a goddamn 998 LP over the Great lakes lol.

This-

Yeah, but that little 998 acts like a kicker to keep things moving and us on the right side of the gradient. But yeah, your map is nicer.

[Heisy]

If you follow the progression of everything the Euro and Ai, to a degree, had that LR event because it held energy behind the day 6-7 front.

GFS and CMC just bring the front across as one big wave/cutter.

We’ll see how it evolves, just wanted to point those differences out.


.

[Ji]

2 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

Looks good from my backyard 

you finally picked a good place to live. What happened to that woman that had that house in Central Maryland that you could escape too when the rain/snow line in Loudoun was too far west?

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yeah, but that little 998 acts like a kicker to keep things moving and us on the right side of the gradient. But yeah, your map is nicer.

I don't know what this even means lol.

Btw a SWFE involves overrunning with cold HP anchored to the north. This ain't that.

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I don't know what this even means lol.

Btw a SWFE involves overrunning with cold HP anchored to the north. This ain't that.

It’ll be gone at 0z anyways lol

[CAPE]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

It’ll be gone at 0z anyways lol

Ofc. But Ralph hailed me about it lol.

[stormy]

OOz NAM  says no precipitation thru 84 hrs.

How much longer can this continue?????  

Other guidance says Precipitation outlook is 000 

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormy said:

OOz NAM  says no precipitation thru 84 hrs.

How much longer can this continue?????  

Other guidance says Precipitation outlook is 000 

Long time 

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Ofc. But Ralph hailed me about it lol.

I’m cracking up watching everyone talking about day 7+. I’ll just sit back and wait to see if anything shows up inside 72hrs. If not welp sol. 

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I’m cracking up watching everyone talking about day 7+. I’ll just sit back and wait to see if anything shows up inside 72hrs. If not welp sol. 

What's going to show up over the next 3 days is a significant warming trend. Looking forward to it. Need a break from the cold with not much to show for it. 

[frd]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

What's going t show up over the next 3 days is a significant warming trend. Looking forward to it. Need a break from the cold with not much to show for it. 

Minus the squall the cold dry predominates the pattern. Hope to cash in third week and 4th week of January. 

I like the looks in the HL as the cold should intensify and hopefully meets up with moisture later in the month.

 

[CAPE]

Just now, frd said:

Minus the squall the cold dry predominates the pattern. Hope to cash in third week and 4th week of January. 

I like the looks in the HL as the cold should intensify and hopefully meets up with moisture later in the month.

 

Like I said yesterday, I think there is a pretty good chance for a winter storm mid month period. I didn't pore over successive ens runs like I did yesterday, but just looking at h5 on the latest runs it still looks reasonable.

[frd]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Like I said yesterday, I think there is a pretty good chance for a winter storm mid month period. I didn't pore over successive ens runs like I did yesterday, but just looking at h5 on the latest runs it still looks reasonable.

I agree, the h5 is the way to go that far out. 

Believe the odds might be present for a decent event as you mentioned, or even a higher level event between 1/15 to 1/31. A Winter Storm Warning would be nice.   

 

[Heisy]

If you follow the progression of everything the Euro and Ai, to a degree, had that LR event because it held energy behind the day 6-7 front.

GFS and CMC just bring the front across as one big wave/cutter.

We’ll see how it evolves, just wanted to point those differences out.


.

Here is 18z gfs vs 12z euro. A lot of differences as to be expected at this range. Euro has a more positively tilted trough, gfs more agressive




.

[baltosquid]

18z GFS swings a piece of energy round the back of the more powerful cutter on the 10th (though not a super aggressive cut, as there is some blocking), which then tracks more favorably for our area on the 11th. Verbatim too warm and you get lots of messy mixing but I wonder if with better spacing that could work for a small thing.

[CAPE]

The interplay between the shortwaves is off and what we end up with is more of a broad lobe with no real sharpness to it. What I do like is the surface set up- HP to the NW and LP to the NE.

Fuck the GL Low bullshit. That's a fail almost always for our region.

 

 

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

The interplay between the shortwaves is off and what we end up with is more of a broad lobe with no real sharpness to it. What I do like is the surface set up- HP to the NW and LP to the NE.

Fuck the GL Low bullshit. That's a fail almost always for our region.

 

 

Yeah if there's a bit of a delay on the second piece or the first piece moves out quicker, might have a better chance. I mean, less than 24 hours later as depicted, the GL low moves to a much better spot. But I'm sure 00z will be a total change anyway.

[bncho]

look at the end of that 18z GFS... MECS

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

look at the end of that 18z GFS

Yeah baby