January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Blizzard of 93]

The 12z EPS & 12z Canadian ensemble in the day 10 to 15 period look very workable to me.

I have no interest in freezing the orange groves while we have below zero temps.

Last year a frigid 2 weeks in late January gave us “congrats Carolinas” & “congrats Gulf coast” when they snowed while we froze.

I think many of us would welcome a pattern of just cold enough with chances to score snow. 
Bring on some moisture laden storms & let the chips fall during prime snow climo season.

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now see...ya can't help but think about 22-23 when that thing went on steroids the entire season (I think the NAO linked up with it). I was used to seeing that in February of a Nina but that thing surged basically the entire winter, smh Now this is a different setup, of course...but I had been under the impression that the ser was more of a February thing in ninas.

Its usually there all season but most notably in Feb. That also doesn't necessarily mean 100% the SER will pump the entire month either. Could it? Sure. But given the Dec up top pattern, I think there will be more of a resistance from the NAO and PV. Those early season looks tend to show up throughout the season.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 12z AI Euro & AI GEFS also show a very workable look in the day 10 to 15 period.

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z AI Euro & AI GEFS also show a very workable look in the day 10 to 15 period.

The cliff jumpers need to invest in bungees.

[Blizzard of 93]

12z Synopsis 

EPS, EPS AI, CMC ensemble, & GEFS AI ensemble all have a very workable & generally similar look in the day 10 to 15 period.

Only the GEFS looked different…but @CAPE said that it looked workable as well.

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

12z Synopsis 

EPS, EPS AI, CMC ensemble, & GEFS ensemble all have a very workable & generally similar look in the day 10 to 15 period.

Only the GEFS looked different…but @CAPE said that it looked workable as well.

I’m guessing this is why Webb didn’t change back to heat miser?

[CAPE]

50 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Eps have the SE Ridge at the end of the run too. This is at least the 3rd run in a row on the 360hr runs. It's maddening. 

I'm not sure why you worry so much about the very end of the ens runs. You know this is subject to larger errors.

 I have done some analysis of each of the big 3(GEFS/EPS/GEPS) over multiple consecutive runs(fwiw lol), and I think there is a decent shot at a snow event mid month, +/- a day or so.  Building EPO ridge, SW trough undercutting the western ridge with energy ejecting eastward, and a pretty solid look in the NA. All models to varying degrees indicate significant precip in the Tennessee valley with height lines oriented SW to NE. Ofc it might not work out but there is potential in that window on guidance. If it torches beyond that, so be it. As we know, these modeled warmups in the LR have been perpetually pushed back for months lol.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

I'm not sure why you worry so much about the very end of the ens runs.

Especially the fact that it’s always at the end of the runs.

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

Whatever, I'm reasonably confident we can get cold air by the latter half of the month. My top analogue is.....1985.  I was only 4yo that winter living in Michigan so I have.no idea what it brought here.  

 

What I'm not reasonably confident is precip.  The drought presses on for the next few weeks and I see no reason it lets up this month. 

It brought cold and dry and an early end to winter.  It was a miserable winter here.

[Ralph Wiggum]

I realize im breaking my own rules looking ahead, but to keep the jumpers from jumping, the CFS establishes a decent quasi CPF by mid-month thru early Feb. EPO ridging and a flattened SER. 

 

 

[osfan24]

All the talk about a “workable” pattern gives me the same vibes as the sign when you get off 495 to jump in Route 1 South that states PG County: A “ liveable” community. Congrats, you could survive here and it wouldn’t be awful. Sign me up.

[Weather Will]

WB latest EPS extended.  Three weeks until our snowy week.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest EPS extended.  Three weeks until our snowy week.

That's the week I took off for my 'stay'cation a couple months back, so LFG!  

[CAPE]

Just now, osfan24 said:

All the talk about a “workable” pattern gives me the same vibes as the sign when you get off 495 to jump in Route 1 South that states PG County: A “ liveable” community. Congrats, you could survive here and it wouldn’t be awful. Sign me up.

We live in the Mid Atlantic. "Workable" patterns are what we have to work with, if we are lucky. Sometimes they yield something, other times not so much. With certainty, we have HH everyday though. 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest EPS extended.  Three weeks until our snowy week.

Nothing before that? LOL

[adelphi_sky]

27 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Nothing before that? LOL

Early December snows are exciting, but I think I like January snow better. A virtually snowless January blows. 

[stormy]

22 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest EPS extended.  Three weeks until our snowy week.

The late January period has so many variables that are unresolved. 

This La Nina winter is  decent with a December 4 - 5 degrees colder than normal. Something very strange is that PSU used to preach that temperatures were not usually cold enough for snow any more..................  That is amazing..................... Wrong but amazing.........................

Stupid people will put this post down................  Intelligent people will say, WOW, you have something there.

What are you???  STUPID or INTELLIGENT ??? 

Intelligent says that February  and March will probably have surprises.   

Snowlovers, You have another 70 days ........................

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

Early December snows are exciting, but I think I like January snow better. A virtually snowless January blows. 

Most of our big ones hold off until after the new year.

[Weather Will]

49 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Nothing before that? LOL

Maybe!!!!!  That is why there are crazy people like us that look at every run!!!!  If I were smart I would turn it off for a week....

[bncho]

you know the mood is kinda cooked if mitch is the new chuck lol

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

you know the mood is kinda cooked if mitch is the new chuck lol

Anybody who has been around here for some time knows I'm as big a weenie when it's going to snow as anybody else. I've just been doing it long enough to come to the belief that the crappy outcomes need to be pointed out as much as the weenie ones because what can go wrong, will go wrong. Plus, it lessens the sting on the inevitable busts.

[osfan24]

PSU being MIA is/should have been a major tell.

[Chris78]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Anybody who has been around here for some time knows I'm as big a weenie when it's going to snow as anybody else. I've just been doing it long enough to come to the belief that the crappy outcomes need to be pointed out as much as the weenie ones because what can go wrong, will go wrong. Plus, it lessens the sting on the inevitable busts.

I said a few days ago it might take till February for a decent pattern. Of course I got some weenie emojies but would it really shock you to basically have to toss the first 3 weeks of January?

 

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

PSU being MIA is/should have been a major tell.

I was just thinking the same thing yesterday 

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

PSU being MIA is/should have been a major tell.

Isn’t he taking a break?

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

I said a few days ago it might take till February for a decent pattern. Of course I got some weenie emojies but would it really shock you to basically have to toss the first 3 weeks of January?

 

IMO its riduculous for you to have to be worried about people weenie-ing your post. i dont think you're trying to troll, you are just saying what you think. people can be in denial as much as they want lol

[JenkinsJinkies]

If people are this upset at getting weenied then that’s their problem.

[rjvanals]

Monday morning has a non zero chance of a stat padder for the northern crew 

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

If people are this upset at getting weenied then that’s their problem.

[caviman2201]

my rule of thumb... once a day, pull up the EPS/GEFS and scroll to the end. If the total snow mean on both isn't at least 2 or 3", it isn't going to snow for a while. move on and do something else.