January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Heisy]

End of the 6z Gefs, if correct, looks workable as it may be a bit wetter with marginal temps.

I expect if the -epo is real we’ll see a few cutters that will slowly bring the lower heights E, eventually if we end up with a pattern like that one advertised, we’d be in business

PS, I woke up today to almost inch of snow on the ground and I didn’t realize it was supposed to happen. Helluva squall line up here.


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[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

This isn’t even can-kicking. This is punting and not sure you are getting the ball back. Hopefully, we can salvage part of January. Looks like our shut the blinds pattern lasted longer than expected.

We had a cold December and it snowed multiple times. Just had a snow squall roll through on Jan 1. Slight chance of snow this weekend. We haven't even sniffed a shut the blinds pattern. Maybe we wont see a flake of snow over the next 2 weeks, but I kind of doubt that. We are due for a milder period and that looks pretty certain. This is how winter goes in these parts. Personally I am looking forward to some days in the 50s. A little tired of the cold and wind.

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

We had a cold December and it snowed multiple times. Just had a snow squall roll through on Jan 1. Slight chance of snow this weekend. We haven't even sniffed a shut the blinds pattern. Maybe we wont see a flake of snow over the next 2 weeks, but I kind of doubt that. We are due for a milder period and that looks pretty certain. This is how winter goes in these parts. Personally I am looking forward to some days in the 50s. A little tired of the cold and wind.

By some of these posts i think people actually forget where we live. They act like we live in Buffalo or Syracuse. 

[kgottwald]

11 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Yes, it was here at least.  

We had a couple of one-inch events, then a 4-inch storm two days before the inauguration, the snow cover from which made possible DCA's -4 low. Then a 2-inch storm to end the month, which turned out to be the last snow for the season (until a half inch in April!!)

I remember Bob Ryan and Gordon Barnes were hyping up an event for February 6th that just turned into a light icing and some drizzle.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

By some of these posts i think people actually forget where we live. They act like we live in Buffalo or Syracuse. 

And those areas go through stretches where its mild and doesn't snow. Anyone who wants cold and snow all winter probably needs to move to northern Maine.

[dallen7908]

9 hours ago, CAPE said:

And the equations used to describe the atmosphere are quite primitive. Amazing the models perform as well as they do given the complexity of the atmosphere.

... and that is why they are called the primitive equations ... 

[Ralph Wiggum]

47 minutes ago, frd said:

General concensus is still up with the PNA as of today's update.

 

With the EPO going hard negative, not sure how much into positive territory we would want the PNA. The EPO look continues to get closer (ie we arent kicking that teleconnection...it appears real), so a negative pna could even work helping nudge the SER into a gradient zone in the Mid Atl with SW flow events tracking sw->ne along the boundary. Thats with a negative pna or maybe neutral. Strong +PNA with a robust -EPO runs the risk of being bitter cold and dry. Though we always run some sort of risk or another. In short, if the -EPO is real, which it does look to be, I will roll the dice with a slight - or neutral PNA rather than too much of a good thing. YMMV

[CAPE]

42 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

... and that is why they are called the primitive equations ... 

yep. fundamental diff eq.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

We had a cold December and it snowed multiple times. Just had a snow squall roll through on Jan 1. Slight chance of snow this weekend. We haven't even sniffed a shut the blinds pattern. Maybe we wont see a flake of snow over the next 2 weeks, but I kind of doubt that. We are due for a milder period and that looks pretty certain. This is how winter goes in these parts. Personally I am looking forward to some days in the 50s. A little tired of the cold and wind.

No. We have 9 months out of the year to be warm. 

[CAPE]

35 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

With the EPO going hard negative, not sure how much into positive territory we would want the PNA. The EPO look continues to get closer (ie we arent kicking that teleconnection...it appears real), so a negative pna could even work helping nudge the SER into a gradient zone in the Mid Atl with SW flow events tracking sw->ne along the boundary. Thats with a negative pna or maybe neutral. Strong +PNA with a robust -EPO runs the risk of being bitter cold and dry. Though we always run some sort of risk or another. In short, if the -EPO is real, which it does look to be, I will roll the dice with a slight - or neutral PNA rather than too much of a good thing. YMMV

Yeah with an amped EPO ridge we have a mechanism to deliver the cold. Having a neutral/slightly -PNA can facilitate shortwaves ejecting eastward further south. Otherwise we need a healthy NS wave to drop south and track underneath. We will need the NAO to be favorable to keep the SE ridge flat/suppressed and most of the guidance is depicting a ridge over GL in the LR.

[frd]

41 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

With the EPO going hard negative, not sure how much into positive territory we would want the PNA. The EPO look continues to get closer (ie we arent kicking that teleconnection...it appears real), so a negative pna could even work helping nudge the SER into a gradient zone in the Mid Atl with SW flow events tracking sw->ne along the boundary. Thats with a negative pna or maybe neutral. Strong +PNA with a robust -EPO runs the risk of being bitter cold and dry. Though we always run some sort of risk or another. In short, if the -EPO is real, which it does look to be, I will roll the dice with a slight - or neutral PNA rather than too much of a good thing. YMMV

Just reflecting on the improvement in the PNA region however once the negative EPO arrives I agree we do not want an overly positive PNA. 

As @CAPE has mentioned we have done well with small to medium events during previous winters which featured a negative EPO pattern. There's no reason to think we cannot take advantage of this time period later in the month for snowfall opportunities.

What is also encouraging to know is that the polar vortex is not likely to strengthen significantly and even though the Arctic oscillation is forecast to rise from standard deviations of -3 it will likely head back down  again  according to the models

 

[rjvanals]

Not sure Saturday is completely dead for a small event even if its on life support 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

No. We have 9 months out of the year to be warm. 

Having some days in the 50s is normal around here in winter. Did ya know the high temp the day before the Jan 3-4 2022 snowstorm was around 60? It was snowing 12 hours later.

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Having some days in the 50s is normal around here in winter. Did ya know the high temp the day before the Jan 3-4 2022 snowstorm was around 60? It was snowing 12 hours later.

Oh I know! I'm a Cooperative Observer for NWS (RSTM2). This past December was the first time in years (5+?) that we didn't hit 60°.

EDIT: First time since 2017 for my site.

[JenkinsJinkies]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

No. We have 9 months out of the year to be warm. 

There’s a fine line between mid 50s and low 70s this time of year.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Not sure Saturday is completely dead for a small event even if its on life support 

20% chance of snow in the forecast here. Did pretty well with that the last 2 days lol.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

There’s a fine line between mid 50s and low 70s this time of year.

Yeah if we start getting days in the 60s/low 70s in Jan we are probably in a shit the blinds pattern.

[midatlanticweather]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Barring any pop up surprises we seem to be pretty cooked until the 12th. Time to focus on the New Years’ resolutions that we’re all gonna drop by mid-January before getting back to tracking snow!

Set goals not resolutions!! That is all I have to share. Next few weeks look bad. Resolutions will probably end for most people before the pattern changes again. Even more before mid February. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah if we start getting days in the 60s/low 70s in Jan we are probably in a shit the blinds pattern.

Around 60 can still work out later down the line, but if it’s within a degree or two of 70 then it’s pretty much the kiss of death for the remainder of the season. See also 2017, 2020, and 2023.

[bncho]

GFS actually trending 25-50 miles north with the weekend system each run

[Duca892]

1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

This isn’t even can-kicking. This is punting and not sure you are getting the ball back. Hopefully, we can salvage part of January. Looks like our shut the blinds pattern lasted longer than expected.

This is kind of what I was sensing from people after just last week everyone hyped up mid-January as a pretty epic pattern… I’m too stupid to understand what happened between last week and now

[aldie 22]

It might just be me but I think some people think mid January means January 7th

[JenkinsJinkies]

CWG January forecast:

https://archive.is/ECHhk

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

CWG January forecast:

https://archive.is/ECHhk

Acceptable. 

[Ji]

GFS with a horrific SE ridge/Cutter run with no end in sight.

CMS says what?

 

[bncho]

we're analyzing h5 from different operational runs at 10+ days out lol

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

we're analyzing h5 from different operational runs at 10+ days out lol

Something to do as we wait

[frd]

25 minutes ago, Ji said:

GFS with a horrific SE ridge/Cutter run with no end in sight.

CMS says what?

 

Complex pattern, more clarity by the weekend.  Looking forward to the afternoon EPS.  

[rjvanals]

Euro is back to giving us a dusting Saturday night 

[mitchnick]

Updated Cansips 5H fwiw. This is the link to January and you can go from there.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026010100&fh=0

Temps:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026010100&fh=0

Precip (dry)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2026010100&fh=0

EDIT: Niño!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2026010100&fh=11