January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I think you just wasted a perfectly good ALEET for nothing.

its going to trend north till Friday.....and then trend back south again. Its always 1 step forward and e4 steps back

[Ji]

one big difference between December and January weeklies is the precip anomolies. In December, they were brown or even dark red. In January they are normal or green.

[frd]

Oh my 

 

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

one big difference between December and January weeklies is the precip anomolies. In December, they were brown or even dark red. In January they are normal or green.

With every operational model run, I'm doubting more and more the great pattern. The trough always ends up across the Pac NW, leading to a ridge somewhere in the east. Getting close to pulling the plug. The models were way too warm in December. Now when they're cold we should believe them as being correct? 

[WxUSAF]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I think you just wasted a perfectly good ALEET for nothing.

I didn’t say it was a lot of digital blue 

[NorthArlington101]

32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Aleet aleet…digital blue on 18z euro for this weekend 

Pretty massive jump. Interesting at least… said earlier about 4-5 of the ens members had it. 

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

With every operational model run, I'm doubting more and more the great pattern. The trough always ends up across the Pac NW, leading to a ridge somewhere in the east. Getting close to pulling the plug. The models were way too warm in December. Now when they're cold we should believe them as being correct? 

Just to put a point on what I'm saying, look at the last 3 days from the weeklies for temps during the week of 1/5-1/12. Sunday's is on top, then yesterday, and today. So we get warmer as we approach the forecast period? That's no way to run a winter if you want snow.

Not saying it's over or it won't happen ultimately, but I  am saying my confidence in the models is essentially gone.

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Just to put a point on what I'm saying, look at the last 3 days from the weeklies for temps during the week of 1/5-1/12. Sunday's is on top, then yesterday, and today. So we get warmer as we approach the forecast period? That's no way to run a winter if you want snow.

Not saying it's over or it won't happen ultimately, but I  am saying my confidence in the models is essentially gone.

eh the first week of January was always iffy...only a small part of the country(us) had BN temps....the rest was a blowtorch.

[mitchnick]

Just now, Ji said:

eh the first week of January was always iffy...only a small part of the country(us) had BN temps....the rest was a blowtorch.

You're missing my point. As we get closer to the week(s) after 1/12, can we expect them to get warmer too? And why shouldn't we since the models were too warm since 12/1, being wrong going the other way is a death blow to prime winter. Again, I  can't say what will happen, but I  can say model performance this year gives me no confidence in any forecast past 5-7 days. 

[WxUSAF]

I get what you’re feeling @mitchnick, but more often than not since early August the trend has been the other way. 

[ravensrule]

Just now, mitchnick said:

You're missing my point. As we get closer to the week(s) after 1/12, can we expect them to get warmer too? And why shouldn't we since the models were too warm since 12/1, being wrong going the other way is a death blow to prime winter. Again, I  can't say what will happen, but I  can say model performance this year gives me no confidence in any forecast past 5-7 days. 

Bring back the old Mitch, i liked him SOOOO much more. 

[Weather Will]

It was not that long ago that the temps on the weeklies showed it would be around the 10th when temps would start to go below average and the pattern would begin to be conducive for snow. If there is no tracking by mid month, I will be disappointed.  Until then, patience is needed, and maybe we will get lucky with a small event before then....I am watching Sunday.... WB 18Z EURO compared to 12Z.

[IronTy]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You're missing my point. As we get closer to the week(s) after 1/12, can we expect them to get warmer too? And why shouldn't we since the models were too warm since 12/1, being wrong going the other way is a death blow to prime winter. Again, I  can't say what will happen, but I  can say model performance this year gives me no confidence in any forecast past 5-7 days. 

I'll be labelled a deb downer but I'm getting the same feelings I had a couple years ago when we were promised the epic February period.  Luckily it's only Jan, so even if it sucks we still at least have February for something.  But I'm wary of any map forecasting AN precip in our region.  We haven't had that all year outside of some isolated thunderstorms which don't count in January, so I'm side-eyeing that map. 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Bring back the old Mitch, i liked him SOOOO much more. 

I'm just tired of getting psyched for something good, only to turn out bad when, in retrospect, I could have seen it coming with a deeper dive.

This effin' Niña is killing snow chances. And even if it does snow, they're weak, dry sauce. And the worse part is, we're stuck with it this winter.

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Bring back the old Mitch, i liked him SOOOO much more. 

The semi weenie, optimistic one?

Uh oh, what have I just done? BP fastball down the middle.

[mitchnick]

Just now, CAPE said:

The semi weenie, optimistic one?

Uh oh, what have I just done? BP fastball down the middle.

Got me pegged! Lol

I'm just getting old and crusty.

[Kay]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Got me pegged! Lol

I'm just getting old and crusty.

Don't forget bitter. The trifecta.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Kay said:

Don't forget bitter. The trifecta.

Almost, but not yet. But that will come if we fail with snow. Trust me.

[CAPE]

This is snow for us verbatim on the mean.

[bncho]

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'm just tired of getting psyched for something good, only to turn out bad when, in retrospect, I could have seen it coming with a deeper dive.

This effin' Niña is killing snow chances. And even if it does snow, they're weak, dry sauce. And the worse part is, we're stuck with it this winter.

Well, Ninas are known to kill snow chances down in the Mid-Atlantic. But we just have to wait for the time that we get a +PDO Nino and maybe something can happen. With the warming climate if we get a blizzard it'll be a big one.

[CAPE]

EPO ridge + neutral/slightly positive PNA and favorable NA showing up on the ens runs and continuing well into Jan on the ext products

[snowmagnet]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is snow for us verbatim on the mean.

We should be paying attention to the Ensembles this far ahead.  

The operational just want to give in to our blue and purple (or pink and green)  fantasies and then take them away.  

Every year.  Cliff jumping starts before the New Year. It doesn't make sense. If a model can show 2 feet one day (operational), and then nothing the next, why would the opposite not be possible?  

[CAPE]

[ravensrule]

35 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The semi weenie, optimistic one?

Uh oh, what have I just done? BP fastball down the middle.

I'm waiting to sign Framber Valdez or Ranger Suarez until i start thinking about batting practice fastballs. 

[TSSN+]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I didn’t say it was a lot of digital blue 

That’s a pretty big jump. These are the systems that sometimes we score out of no where. 

[rjvanals]

5 hours ago, rjvanals said:

Looking at the EPS there's quite a spread in temps starting Sunday and if you squint perhaps a remote chance of light snow over the weekend? 

Quite a bit more support on the 18z EPS for a bit of snow but its still a longshot 

[TSSN+]

I’m mean… 

 

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

I’m mean… 

Trend friend 

[Ruin]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I’m mean… 

lol wow 

 

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I’m mean… 

 

Definitely norther on the ens mean. I was intrigued by this window.. a little sneaky, but kind of lost interest. But maybe...