January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm happy with a few 1"-3" events. Just want snow.

Had 2 of those. How about a few 2-4/3-6 deals? I'll be greedy lol.

[87storms]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Had 2 of those. How about a few 2-4/3-6 deals? I'll be greedy lol.

I have minimal interest in anything less than a 4-6”+ event. I like snowstorms a lot more than I like snow lol. Hopefully this winter includes something substantial for this area.

[Eskimo Joe]

26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Had 2 of those. How about a few 2-4/3-6 deals? I'll be greedy lol.

I'll take anything honestly. I'm not picky. This is the first time in almost a decade I have off for the holidays (12/31 to 1/5). I'd like to have some stress free snow.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

No explanation, but I have to mention that someone posted JB saying he thought a trough would retrograde from the east.  Maybe he was on to something.

Or maybe just regurgitating the Euro. Lol

[mitchnick]

56 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t think the Dec 29-Jan 5 window favors EC snowstorms (apart from lighter snows that don’t pop up in modeling until less than 5 days). But once the +PNA develops after Jan 5 (if it does), all bets are off. 

6z EuroAI likes the 10th-11th. We'll see how many more runs it can hold. Lol 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

6z EuroAI likes the 10th-11th. We'll see how many more runs it can hold. Lol 

Lock that up...the 12.5 is right over my new house

[Eskimo Joe]

Hard to not be even slightly optimistic about this:

 

 

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Hard to not be even slightly optimistic about this:

 

 

I'll wait until Ralph tells me when to be optimistic 

[Ji]

Lock that up...the 12.5 is right over my new house

You should tell us you moved again

[frd]

Tony Pann  @TonyPannWBAL

 

 

Go Time??? I have to admit; the weather alphabet is looking good for the chance at a coastal snowstorm going into the first few weeks of the New Year.  +PNA, -EPO, -NAO. Does that mean Baltimore will finally get a Monster Snow for sure? No, of course not.  But the table is set. Stay tuned...

 

 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

Once you see the crazy eyed smiling face blocking pattern you can't unsee it. One of the wildest looking progs I've seen basically ever lol. Break out the Visine and stuff haha

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Once you see the crazy eyed smiling face blocking pattern you can't unsee it. One of the wildest looking progs I've seen basically ever lol. Break out the Visine and stuff haha

If we can't score just one warning level snowfall in this setup, then something's wrong.

[bncho]

IMO I like the Jan 10-13 timeframe better than Jan 5-8 just because we're more likely to have the PNA and EPO in our favor. Lots of members show big hits on each ensemble then. Jan 5-8 will be hard to get a big storm more than 6+" just because the PNA and EPO are unfavorable. The odds are stacked against us there.

[dailylurker]

Getting 2016 pre storm pattern vibes

[frd]

 

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

^man there are some royalty level snowfall events listed in the analogs

[Ralph Wiggum]

33 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I'll wait until Ralph tells me when to be optimistic 

If you need a random person online to tell you when to choose optimism, seek help 

Modeled pattern seems reason enough for me to be optimistic anyway.

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Once you see the crazy eyed smiling face blocking pattern you can't unsee it. One of the wildest looking progs I've seen basically ever lol. Break out the Visine and stuff haha

I see Sid:

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Realizing its just the op but cant help noticing  several runs now how active the stj is starting to look. No shortage of southern disturbances moving across

[MillvilleWx]

10 minutes ago, frd said:

 

 

 

Those top analogs for both periods are absolutely insane. What a list. Cautiously optimistic for this potential pattern. 

[Terpeast]

13 minutes ago, bncho said:

IMO I like the Jan 10-13 timeframe better than Jan 5-8 just because we're more likely to have the PNA and EPO in our favor. Lots of members show big hits on each ensemble then. Jan 5-8 will be hard to get a big storm more than 6+" just because the PNA and EPO are unfavorable. The odds are stacked against us there.

I’m thinking the same. But i’ll take anything before the 10th!

[Weather Will]

I see why no one is talking about the 12Z GFS but it does have a big dog in the 2nd weekend of Jan...so now we wait for the triumphant victory or the agony of defeat.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[bncho]

Jaws at the end of the 12z GFS

[Eskimo Joe]

I know it's the OP at range, but the 12z GFS is really trying to tee up a legit nuke job.

[dailylurker]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I know it's the OP at range, but the 12z GFS is really trying to tee up a legit nuke job.

It's been forever since I've seen a low in Texas pulling in that much gulf moisture. 

[frd]

34 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

 

 

Tomer stated the following today,

" While a major snowstorm is never a guarantee, chances of at least one or two in the January 8-25 time frame are higher than average. "

 

[SnowenOutThere]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

0z EPS for the 4th- vorticity and surface pressure- got some southern stream action. Precip stays just to the south.

 

 

 

As mentioned by other posters the time period after this particular storm signal look to be more promising but I really cant help but like this depiction for the 4th. We have a good amount of vorticity to our south, a block to our north, and surface low pressure across Georgia in a position to bring in both gulf and Atlantic moisture. Of course, as depicted the bowling ball to our north would suppress the storm but for a week out I really can't hate it. We just need to see the trends but as it currently stands it is more than trackable. 

[mitchnick]

Eps, as usual, are a miss tonthe north for the 8th/9th.