January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

Yeah if it plays out like that, I will be a bit butthurt that the Deep South is going historic

I think the floor is "whiff", the ceiling is "a bit butthurt".

[dryslot]

I got a few weenies tossed my way when i mentioned suppression to RIC but i think DT land is in a good spot for this one as it stands and north into the mid atlantic for the bulk of it basically.

[Modfan2]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, 5-7" is "significant", but I'm disappointed with that with 20" in VA.

Never mind the snow, the ice in GA/SC looks bad

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly, but not huge amounts IMO.

I agree that significant overrunning likely doesn't make it that far north.. but I disagree that you can't get significant snow from this whole setup, the trends at 500 suggest that we can get an actual coastal after the overrunning, still plenty of time for trends and change, the results early this 12z run continue to show opportunity for more phasing.. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I agree that significant overrunning doesn't make it that far north.. but I disagree that you can't get significant snow from this whole setup, the trends at 500 suggest that we can get an actual coastal after the overrunning, still plenty of time for trends and change, the results early this 12z run continue to show opportunity for more phasing.. 

Look at my post...I said "huge", you said "significant".

[tamarack]

22 minutes ago, Angus said:

Was out walking the dog this morning thinking about this - I have referenced it before on the board ... This week in 1982 at SLoaf, first time there, half dozen runs or so and bad frost bite each time (turned around and sent into lodge to warm up by the liftie) so unpleasant that I did not ski for another two years 83/84 season. I believe this stretch still remains record cold for the area.

On Jan 18, 1982 it was -34 at our back settlement home in Fort Kent, accompanied by gusts 35+ and 2-mile vis. in teeny-grain SN.  Old WCI chart showed -101 that morning, new chart about -70.  Got up to -14 that Monday afternoon.
The day before we took half of a Bible college men's quartet to our church as temps plummeted thru the minus teens in howling gales.  As they lifted their jackets from our car, the dry-cleaner's thin plastic covers were shattered by wind and cold.

I'm getting a 2002-03 vibe this winter.  That snow season was our 2nd coldest DJF of 27 (behind 2014-15), but also the driest.   Total snow was 21" BN as we watched the big dogs from afar.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6" in latter January is a climo snowfall.

[CoastalWx]

Isn’t it Iconic, don’t you think?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Look at my post...I said "huge", you said "significant".

Lol I don't want to say huge, but I still think you can get a huge snowstorm, albeit low odds, but better than no odds

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Isn’t it Iconic, don’t you think?

Iconic is very ironic after my post to Ray

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Great start to 12z - NAM and RGEM both looked great at 500, and Icon as well, Icon gets a Significant almost Major snowstorm in SNE with plowable snow for many more.. 

[Kitz Craver]

ICON will work for SNE, all hail ze Germans!

[Sey-Mour Snow]

@40/70 Benchmark define huge.  Also You'd have to imagine there will be a rogue 10-20" band displaced well north of forecast, maybe you'll get thrown a bone for a change and cash in on that.. 

[Spanks45]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Iconic is very ironic after my post to Ray

heavy snow here and 7 degrees, hopefully not arctic sand.....Kuchera gone wild I am sure.....

[ineedsnow]

its coming! 

[Kitz Craver]

This could get misleading as Ray said with southern peeps honking and others like meh

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

@40/70 Benchmark define huge.  Also You'd have to imagine there will be a rogue 10-20" band displaced well north of forecast, maybe you'll get thrown a bone for a change and cash in on that.. 

There would be a good chance for a heavy band well north 

[CCHurricane]

Ratios should be killer, could be ~15/20:1 for most. Won't take that much moisture to produce +6". 

ICON bump north below (00z vs. 12z)

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

@40/70 Benchmark define huge.  Also You'd have to imagine there will be a rogue 10-20" band displaced well north of forecast, maybe you'll get thrown a bone for a change and cash in on that.. 

15-20".

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

There would be a good chance for a heavy band well north 

The @powderfreak to WXW2 corridor says hello  

[WxWatcher007]

In all seriousness, I know we don’t care as much but look at the amping up of qpf in the south. This is going to be a massive, moisture laden system. 

[CoastalWx]

Eric Webb said this is not trending north. I feel better now.

[weatherwiz]

Something to be extremely careful with and I've seen a bit of this on X is you have to be extremely careful just using QPF trends as a means of seeking out north/south trends. Ultimately, that is a practice that shouldn't be used in the first place but that holds especially true in this setup. there are many other factors at play with this which will impact QPF...not just total QPF but northward extent of QPF. You can increase the dynamics and forcing aloft WITHOUT having a bump north in the sfc low which can result in both increasing the QPF and blossoming QPF north. 

There is room for a quite a bit of PVA into the region with favorable upper-level dynamics and we may continue to see increasing QPF into the region which is independent of storm track

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Eric Webb said this is not trending north. I feel better now.

And What are you replacing your picture frames with now that all of your degrees are gone?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And What are you replacing your picture frames with now that all of your degrees are gone?

That picture of Kevin with lipstick on at a gtg several years ago. 

[Typhoon Tip]

That super storm in Russia is an astounding story...  just arresting

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Eric Webb said this is not trending north. I feel better now.

It’s obviously going to be a massive Arctic high, but if anything I’d anticipate moderation out our way rather than the opposite. We’ve already seen that to an extent in NNE. 

[ineedsnow]

GFS looking meh at 12z

[Lucy Pull]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

GFS looking meh at 12z

Looks like it wants to bury the energy in the southwest again.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s obviously going to be a massive Arctic high, but if anything I’d anticipate moderation out our way rather than the opposite. We’ve already seen that to an extent in NNE. 

I just found that funny. We know this will require work, but it’s not like an impossible outcome. Also depends on how you define it. North trend could mean 2-4” or over a foot. Broad term.