January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[EastonSN+]

22 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Hmmm…

Like the higher heights on the latest run.

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Quantify "have"....

Siggy

[Heisy]

Kiss of death. Its coming north.

Well at least when it does trend N they’ll get a crippling ice storm so he’s not wrong lol


.

[Mothman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, the northern edge of the heavy snow.

Roger that. 

Hope everyone is ready for this one. 

[weatherwiz]

One thing to watch too is this will likely heavy (heavy) precip well north of the sfc low...more north than you would typically expect

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

Siggy

NYC, LI....maybe south coast.

Outside shot up to the pike.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Lots of dynamite peppered in the upcoming flow. Just need it to ignite over our heads…easy game. 
 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Well at least when it does trend N they’ll get a crippling ice storm so he’s not wrong lol


.

Yup, I was thinking that too.  He’ll either be buried in snow, or locked in with ice…so it’ll be bad either way. 

[SouthCoastMA]

2010 is not walking through that door. wagons north (somewhat). 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup, I was thinking that too.  He’ll either be buried in snow, or locked in with ice…so it’ll be bad either way. 

Imagine if this had happened 40 years ago, before the Hadley Cell swallowed the world....that 30" in VA would be in GA!!!

[jbenedet]

Overnight -

 

The EC-AIFS has trended further south but also a lot more amped. 

the other major guidance has trended north and more amped.

There’s been an improved consensus.

 

I think it’s most telling to see the EC-AIFS amp up but that doesn’t translate to a track further north. This is important. 
 

I like the 6z EC-AIFS - its current depiction and QPF as a baseline from here.

[Snowcrazed71]

25 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Im looking forward to this New York post headline on Tuesday.  NYPD officer found nude in Central Park doing snow angels 

Hmmmmmm.... Could it be....... 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Overnight -

 

The EC-AIFS has trended further south but also a lot more amped. 

the other major guidance has trended north and more amped.

There’s been an improved consensus.

 

I think it’s most telling to see the EC-AIFS amp up but that doesn’t translate to a track further north. This is important. 

A nail biter for sure ( well, at least for us in SNE ). The next few days will be telling. 

Thanks for you insight.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Needs some work to giv eme anything meaningful.  Still a lot of time, but that's a big press to overcome

[weatherwiz]

The biggest challenge in all of this is going to be how far south the Arctic boundary can get before stalling. This is always a big challenge...the past several winters dealing with these scenarios I think there has been a tendency for models to be not aggressive enough with how far into the South the boundary gets. Also, in this case it is very feasible the sfc front gets deeper into the South while say front around 850 is held back as it pushes against stronger mid-level ridging from the strong ridging east of Florida. This would play a big role in where cyclogenesis ultimately develops but looking at the pattern over the Northeast I think we would stand a good shot at building this north enough to at least get a significant event to the coast. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Needs some work to giv eme anything meaningful.  Still a lot of time, but that's a big press to overcome

Somehow I bet you’ll manage to do alright if I had to guess.  

[weatherwiz]

Should also see some squalls move across the region tomorrow...particularly along the Mass Pike. Timing late afternoon and evening 

[Kitz Craver]

I feel like we have said, “the northern push will be under modeled” we have also said, “the confluence will be under modeled”. I’m not sure what will be more favored with this setup, What’ll it be boys? 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I feel like we have said, “the northern push will be under modeled” we have also said, “the confluence will be under modeled”. I’m not sure what will be more favored with this setup, What’ll it be boys? 

A little of both…a compromise.  Slow it down a little like some modeling is showing, I think our chances improve greatly. 

[Kitz Craver]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

A little of both…a compromise.  

I’m not sure a compromise in this situation will work for us to have a significant event though. We need solid northern trends

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I feel like we have said, “the northern push will be under modeled” we have also said, “the confluence will be under modeled”. I’m not sure what will be more favored with this setup, What’ll it be boys? 

Confluence is always a PITA to forecast but I think right now, I would favor a track more north. As modeled, the bulk of the confluence being more north I think favors potential for additional northern pushes. But we also have room to continue building the heights northeast of this. The degree and intensity of CAD into the mid-Atlantic may also play a big factor 

[Sugarloaf1989]

15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The biggest challenge in all of this is going to be how far south the Arctic boundary can get before stalling. This is always a big challenge...the past several winters dealing with these scenarios I think there has been a tendency for models to be not aggressive enough with how far into the South the boundary gets. Also, in this case it is very feasible the sfc front gets deeper into the South while say front around 850 is held back as it pushes against stronger mid-level ridging from the strong ridging east of Florida. This would play a big role in where cyclogenesis ultimately develops but looking at the pattern over the Northeast I think we would stand a good shot at building this north enough to at least get a significant event to the coast. 

This storm potential reminds me alot of the Blizzard of 1996. Very cold with that storm.  I was  skiing at Sugarloaf Maine and it was well below zero during the daytime  before the storm came up the coast.  No snow fell in Northern New England. My parents house had 25" of snow in Northern Queens NYC with huge drifts. Feather light fluffy snow.

[metagraphica]

2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Hey guys im putting out call for anyone who has season to date snowfall totals for their town up to present. I'll be working on season-to-date updated snowfall maps for Southern New England today/tomorrow so if anyone has anything you can tag me or pm me, thanks.

Also i posted the snowfall totals maps for Jan 18-19th in the obs thread for it. 

18.1"

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

I’m not sure a compromise in this situation will work for us to have a significant event though. We need solid northern trends

This is fluid…it’s morphing/it’s trending. The storm hasn’t even formed yet, and the confluence isn’t here yet either, there will be changes.  That’s all you can say at this moment.  Also These elements are not being handled perfectly at this juncture either. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

This storm potential reminds me alot of the Blizzard of 1996. Very cold with that storm.  I was  skiing at Sugarloaf Maine and it was well below zero during the daytime  before the storm came up the coast.  No snow fell in Northern New England. My parents house had 25" of snow in Northern Queens NYC with huge drifts. Feather light fluffy snow.

Change your screen name to Sugarloaf1996

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

This is fluid…it’s morphing/it’s trending. The storm hasn’t even formed yet, and the confluence isn’t here yet either, there will be changes.  That’s all you can say at this moment.  Also These elements are not being handled perfectly at this juncture either. 

IOW, we just don't know?

[WinterWolf]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

IOW, we just don't know?

Well, we do know the 500mb evolution that we see today, won’t be 100% correct, so we know that. What those changes entail, that’s what we dont know. 

[weatherwiz]

Where convection develops and blossoms too is going to play a big role in where sfc low either re-develops or rapidly begins to strengthen. If convection can develop rapidly off the SC coast and be more consolidated (MCS like) this would bode very well for pumping up heights northeast of it. I kind of think this may be in the ballpark of what the 0z Euro was doing...but there is also the whole northern branch to consider. There is just so many moving pieces with this and so many smaller scale processes which are going to play big roles. 

[ineedsnow]

12z should be interesting.. still pretty far out and wouldn't lock anything in but im liking the trends..

[WinterWolf]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Where convection develops and blossoms too is going to play a big role in where sfc low either re-develops or rapidly begins to strengthen. If convection can develop rapidly off the SC coast and be more consolidated (MCS like) this would bode very well for pumping up heights northeast of it. I kind of think this may be in the ballpark of what the 0z Euro was doing...but there is also the whole northern branch to consider. There is just so many moving pieces with this and so many smaller scale processes which are going to play big roles. 

Well, a couple days ago…it looked like a straight forward big overrunning deal.  That’s not completely the case anymore.  So it has trended into something more complex.