January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Typhoon Tip]

so, still haven't formulated an opinion of these AI tools ... but, if the assertion of superiority in that extended range is true this actually lands ideally in the best time

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

so, still haven't formulated an opinion of these AI tools ... but, if the assertion of superiority in that extended range is true this actually lands ideally in the best time

They seem to be better than the ops at the storm track and areal extent of snowfall . But they are too heavy on the hand with qpf 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

so, still haven't formulated an opinion of these AI tools ... but, if the assertion of superiority in that extended range is true this actually lands ideally in the best time

SSTs are going to be pretty well tamed by that point....NE winds will just add moisture.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Next few weeks look cold.  Hopefully we can get something juiced riding into the cold dome but we are certainly primed to have some epic pond ice.  I know how that tickles so many fancies.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm not that excited bc I can see the writing on the wall....one guess at which area stands to get hosed in SNE......my latitude only matters when it bends me over, but rest assured when we get a blizzard in March, the a gradient will be Pelham, NH into N ORH CO.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not that excited bc I can see the writing on the wall....one guess at which area stands to get hosed in SNE......

Might be suppression issues for both of us but you are poised to clean up in a coastal. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Might be suppression issues for both of us but you are poised to clean up in a coastal. 

Not with the PV far enough south.....you can see the ensembles slide things ENE. Funny how in a coastal, I'm lumped in with you and Dave in N ORH country, but in an "up and in" system, I'm with the CP.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not with the PV far enough south.....you can the ensembles slide things ENE. Funny how in a coastal, I'm lumped in with you and Dave in N ORH country, but in an "up and in" system, I'm with the CP.

Dave and Ineedfrozen are in the magic twilight zone.  You know me, throw a moisture laden SWFE at us and I'm all in!  An ideal winter, is a month long parade of those, with a coastal or two that throws sloppy seconds WOR. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, this cold surge is really going to have legs now that we have a region wide pack....pretty sure everywhere in New England has a pack now...even ACK.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, this cold surge is really going to have legs now that we have a region wide pack....pretty sure everywhere in New England has a pack now...even ACK.

Yeah Cape getting slugged with a good paste storm will lock in a pack even down there. 

[ineedsnow]

0z AI GFS for next weekend 

[jbenedet]

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not that excited bc I can see the writing on the wall....one guess at which area stands to get hosed in SNE......my latitude only matters when it bends me over, but rest assured when we get a blizzard in March, the a gradient will be Pelham, NH into N ORH CO.

NNE already with high odds of very cold and very dry after today through month end imo. I’m more inclined to include that region to pike - north than not, at this point. But will give that a few more days of model runs…

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, jbenedet said:

NNE already with high odds of very cold and very dry after today through month end imo. I’m more inclined to include that region to pike - north than not, at this point. But will give that a few more days of model runs…

Yea, I mean...I don't necessarily mean cirrus...but I can totally envision a scenario where CT-RI-SE MA get over a foot and I have a few inches of sawdust.

[WxWatcher007]

I mean the Skynet has WXW2 with Arctic sand falling at -4 Sunday night. I'm inclined to believe NNE gets suppression depression but for SNE I think this is the period. Do or die for a big dog. Sure, there may be chances in February or March, but if we want to hit climo, we need the end of this month to produce.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I mean the Skynet has WXW2 with Arctic sand falling at -4 Sunday night. I'm inclined to believe NNE gets suppression depression but for SNE I think this is the period. Do or die for a big dog. Sure, there may be chances in February or March, but if we want to hit climo, we need the end of this month to produce.

I would agree because odds are against something as extreme as March 2018, regardless of whether we get the SSW.

[jbenedet]

20 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

0z AI GFS for next weekend 

Good luck on that…

 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Good luck on that…

 

What I said about NE notwithstanding, if there was ever a time for a major southern storm, this is it. 

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What I said about NE notwithstanding, if there was ever a time for a major southern storm, this is it. 

Yea timed with peak winter climo as well.

 

 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

29 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

0z AI GFS for next weekend 

Comical solution. Prolonged overrunning morphing into a coastal dropping ~2” of qpf 

[78Blizzard]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Good luck on that…

 

Ukie has it next Sunday with a big hit for many.  But it's all alone in the globals.

[WxWatcher007]

Buns for one. Buns for all. Vodka cold next weekend.

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Buns for one. Buns for all. Vodka cold next weekend.

 

I think -16F is my record low since moving to Greenfield.  Challenging that is impressive. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Good luck on that…

 

Massive cold dome with trough out west and SE ridge in place. This will yield a massive overrunning storm. Yes there will be a brick wall somewhere but good chance it ends up affecting areas pretty far north.