January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'm almost positive I'm going to have some remarks about this post, but I've said it before and I'll say it again, I really do like this particular guy. To me. He's not one of those social media idiots who have no clue about meteorology. This guy is the real deal. That's just my opinion. 

I really like what he has to say and what he's been saying for the last 2 months and he hasn't wavered yet. Again, really not worried about the comments. I'll get about this, just think it's some real good info and something to to really consider.

I saw that on the AI ensemble. What he conveniently left out is that that trough does not amplify and just sort of broadens and flatten out because of another kicker in the flow and also the fast flow period. 
 

it’s not a 0% chance, but I think the 15th is still a low probability. For us anyways.

[jbenedet]

46/32

 

Great to finally get the ice off the driveway. Some 2 weeks of this…

[metagraphica]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

As an influential posters it is probably equally annoying for us to swing between tones of optimism and then despair, inside the same hour LOL buuut...

Re the GFS operational.  I do like the position of the western ridge better in this run than the previous.

Previous left ... new position right

That S/E repositioning may seem subtle but it is crucially important/sensitive in how the wave spacing behaves wrt S/Ws ejected down stream. The subtly more compressed isohypses along the Rockies S flow on the right is also an homage to attempting a ridge farther S/E. 

You don't ( as winter even enthusiasts ..) want to see the left variant of the +PNA.  ... As much. I mean I'm sure in the last 3,000,000 years of eastern N/A there's been event with the left version... but excluding the rarefied scenarios.   

Anyway, bump that a little more and it would be better. 

Would your above discussion be conducive to the negatively tilted 500mb trough; as depicted in the right hand image, riding up the coast?

[Kitz Craver]

24 minutes ago, dryslot said:

GFS misses with a coastal on the 16th but has something on the 18th now.

Coastal can kicking ptsd commencing 

[Snowcrazed71]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I find him nauseating....he's always hyper-defensive and I'm quite certain his mid-January storm potential will go down the toilet.

The one thing I'll agree with you on is that he is defensive. I've actually messaged him and told him to forget about all the noise and stop reacting. But his message is what I'm talking about. And I'm definitely not saying that we're getting a storm mid-month and if you read his post he's not saying that either. He's never said we're getting a storm mid-month, what he said many times over is that the potential is there and the ingredients are also there but you have to read closely to see that. He's never said there's a storm happening mid-month. Ugh, that's where all the craziness comes into play here. People only read what they want to read or hear what they want to hear. If we get something things have to just fall into place just right. Time will tell. 

[dendrite]

“Many claiming winter is over”

lol…it’s the first week of Jan. You can find weenies saying anything on any possible topic on the internet to fuel your agenda.

But hey, give yourself an attaboy over a d7 prog. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, metagraphica said:

Would your above discussion be conducive to the negatively tilted 500mb trough; as depicted in the right hand image, riding up the coast?

Yeah it's all conservation of momentum and wave mechanics.

With a stouter ridge around 110 W ( say ...), the azimuth of the diving S/W is steeper, and that also constructively feedsback on the total amplitude as the L/W and S/W mechanics are in sync 

so in short, strong S/W ... to which negative tilting is a part of that characteristic

[jbenedet]

On the 15th

 

The GEFS evolution matches the EC-AIFS now.

it’s ugly. Mostly northern stream. Not wanting to synch with southern stream…
 

Sell a nor Easter 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Less than an inch of snow for almost all of SNE outside of Northern Worcester county and the Berks through 384 hours on the 12z gfs run.

Even in bad years, not sure I’ve ever seen a run so devoid of winter weather in the peak of winter.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

The one thing I'll agree with you on is that he is defensive. I've actually messaged him and told him to forget about all the noise and stop reacting. But his message is what I'm talking about. And I'm definitely not saying that we're getting a storm mid-month and if you read his post he's not saying that either. He's never said we're getting a storm mid-month, what he said many times over is that the potential is there and the ingredients are also there but you have to read closely to see that. He's never said there's a storm happening mid-month. Ugh, that's where all the craziness comes into play here. People only read what they want to read or hear what they want to hear. If we get something things have to just fall into place just right. Time will tell. 

So he can’t lose

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

So he can’t lose

Love when people do that. The ole CYA. And then if the outer banks get snow, they’ll claim victory because that’s part of the “East Coast.”

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

“Many claiming winter is over”

lol…it’s the first week of Jan. You can find weenies saying anything on any possible topic on the internet to fuel your agenda.

But hey, give yourself an attaboy over a d7 prog. 

Yes, that is my main concern with this guy. Not his idea, what’s the next couple of weeks will render verdict for.  I don’t like the style of writing where someone creates a false strawman and then disagrees with it. That’s incredibly common these days, particularly in our political discourse. But everything is political now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This looks like last January failed phase in some respects attempts...not identical pattern.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/02/thursday-storm-threat-by-wayside-as.html

[mahk_webstah]

I think the guy is just saying that he thinks the pattern is going to be more conducive to East Coast storms. We’ll see if that’s true or not.

[eduggs]

If the southern US ULL doesn't at least partly phase into the longwave trof, Thurs/Fri next week will almost certainly end up with a positively tilted trof folding onto itself and the baroclinic zone well offshore as currently modeled by the GFS and ECM. The ICON is the only model that tracks the northern stream shortwave far enough west to get the ULL on the downstream (right) side of the longwave trof, allowing phasing. There are no individual GFS/ECM ensembles members that support the ICON, which is why I think it's wrong about this feature.

[CoastalWx]

I don’t have the energy to do a nice illustration of this, but go on the website like tropical tidbits, pick the North America sector, and look at the 500 MB height anomalies on the GEFS. You’ll see a trough over the Bering Sea, a ridge sort of positively tilted from California up to the Western Canadian prairies, and a trough over the Midwest that looks like it should do something here.

Now go to hr 174. Notice that Bering sea trough sends a s/w into the nrn plains of the US while the east coast trough almost tries to sharpen to make things interesting. 
However, that nrn plains s/w acts as a kicker and does not allow it to sharpen to bring a low up the coast. 

But here is the fun part, that s/w digs enough the of course the ridge retros into AK just enough to sharpen that and bring a more messier system into the northeast. That’s been our luck. Go forward through day 8 and you’ll see.

Now the reason why I’m saying it’s a non-0 chance is because it wouldn’t take much to bring that storm up the coast and at least graze us with a high-end advisory snow… But it just goes back to what I’ve been saying there’s just too much crap interfering in this flow.

 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This looks like last January failed phase in some respects attempts...not identical pattern.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/02/thursday-storm-threat-by-wayside-as.html

 

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

If the southern US ULL doesn't at least partly phase into the longwave trof, Thurs/Fri next week will almost certainly end up with a positively tilted trof folding onto itself and the baroclinic zone well offshore as currently modeled by the GFS and ECM. The ICON is the only model that tracks the northern stream shortwave far enough west to get the ULL on the downstream (right) side of the longwave trof, allowing phasing. There are no individual GFS/ECM ensembles members that support the ICON, which is why I think it's wrong about this feature.

Yep 

[dendrite]

I mean I understand how it goes with patterns and probabilities. A great pattern doesn’t always produce. A lousy pattern sometimes does.

My problem is when you start using the “strawman” tactics like Mark mentioned to go into business for yourself. It reads like “they don’t know what they’re talking about, but I do” and then proceeds to set himself up in a no-lose scenario. 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I mean I understand how it goes with patterns and probabilities. A great pattern doesn’t always produce. A lousy pattern sometimes does.

My problem is when you start using the “strawman” tactics like Mark mentioned to go into business for yourself. It reads like “they don’t know what they’re talking about, but I do” and then proceeds to set himself up in a no-lose scenario. 

and it works on a post-modern population's "highly analytical/objective" perception and subsequent court of public opinion, too.  

 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I mean I understand how it goes with patterns and probabilities. A great pattern doesn’t always produce. A lousy pattern sometimes does.

My problem is when you start using the “strawman” tactics like Mark mentioned to go into business for yourself. It reads like “they don’t know what they’re talking about, but I do” and then proceeds to set himself up in a no-lose scenario. 

It’s like that guy who used to use some sort of voodoo and predict when there would be a storm a month out on the East Coast. I forget who it was but he would always say something like I predict they’ll be a major East Coast storm between January 10 and 20th. And he’ll give himself like 500 miles either way of leeway and oh by the way, the odds of something between January 10 and January 20 in general probably aren’t half bad anyways lol, because of Climo.

[Lava Rock]

24 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

46/32

 

Great to finally get the ice off the driveway. Some 2 weeks of this…

you should bust out the beach chair and get a tan while you can. Winter will be back soon. Mooohahahah

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, eduggs said:

If the southern US ULL doesn't at least partly phase into the longwave trof, Thurs/Fri next week will almost certainly end up with a positively tilted trof folding onto itself and the baroclinic zone well offshore as currently modeled by the GFS and ECM. The ICON is the only model that tracks the northern stream shortwave far enough west to get the ULL on the downstream (right) side of the longwave trof, allowing phasing. There are no individual GFS/ECM ensembles members that support the ICON, which is why I think it's wrong about this feature.

Yes. Sell that and punt to the moon.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I mean I understand how it goes with patterns and probabilities. A great pattern doesn’t always produce. A lousy pattern sometimes does.

My problem is when you start using the “strawman” tactics like Mark mentioned to go into business for yourself. It reads like “they don’t know what they’re talking about, but I do” and then proceeds to set himself up in a no-lose scenario. 

Yea, he has a really unsavory method of communicating.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s like that guy who used to use some sort of voodoo and predict when there would be a storm a month out on the East Coast. I forget who it was but he would always say something like I predict they’ll be a major East Coast storm between January 10 and 20th. And he’ll give himself like 500 miles either way of leeway and oh by the way, the odds of something between January 10 and January 20 in general probably aren’t half bad anyways lol, because of Climo.

I think the kids in my wifes daycare mentioned those dates to build a snowman.

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s like that guy who used to use some sort of voodoo and predict when there would be a storm a month out on the East Coast. I forget who it was but he would always say something like I predict they’ll be a major East Coast storm between January 10 and 20th. And he’ll give himself like 500 miles either way of leeway and oh by the way, the odds of something between January 10 and January 20 in general probably aren’t half bad anyways lol, because of Climo.

Why can I not recall this  

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s like that guy who used to use some sort of voodoo and predict when there would be a storm a month out on the East Coast. I forget who it was but he would always say something like I predict they’ll be a major East Coast storm between January 10 and 20th. And he’ll give himself like 500 miles either way of leeway and oh by the way, the odds of something between January 10 and January 20 in general probably aren’t half bad anyways lol, because of Climo.

KA?

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

KA?

Keith Allen?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Keith Allen?

Yes

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

KA?

It was maybe him, but I think HM did this too. No disrespect to him, he’s a good met…but at times I was questioning that.

[Torch Tiger]

more NE wx alert hype slop please, the vibes are fading fast