January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[SnowGoose69]

3 hours ago, Kitz Craver said:

GEPS really flexing that SE ridge. That look has some risk

Given it caved to the GEFS look from 2 days ago when the GEFS basically caved to the EPS I think we can toss it somewhat.  I'd also be wary of how all 3 suites go from this booming PNA to a -PNA in the blink of an eye in the D9-16 range, we all know pattern changes tend to be rushed so my feeling is we end up holding that pattern from 240-320 or so for awhile vs hard flipping right to a -PNA/-EPO with a SER....that idea MAY be right but would not surprise me if its like 1/27-1/31 before that happens and then by 2/10 we are in a classic Nina Feb look and we're done unless we get the Nino March transition 2nd winter peak

[Go Kart Mozart]

Going by the AIs and AI ensembles, it looks like a simple matter of cracking a few eggs to make a nice omelet

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Going by the AIs and AI ensembles, it looks like a simple matter of cracking a few eggs to make a nice omelet

Good analogy . 

[Typhoon Tip]

this is an H.A./ +d(PNA) correction event that happens to be going west of us here...

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Pattern looks like garbage until mid month.

Yup.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

this is an H.A./ +d(PNA) correction event that happens to be going west of us here...

 

That is the pearly white dong to the promised land.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Given it caved to the GEFS look from 2 days ago when the GEFS basically caved to the EPS I think we can toss it somewhat.  I'd also be wary of how all 3 suites go from this booming PNA to a -PNA in the blink of an eye in the D9-16 range, we all know pattern changes tend to be rushed so my feeling is we end up holding that pattern from 240-320 or so for awhile vs hard flipping right to a -PNA/-EPO with a SER....that idea MAY be right but would not surprise me if its like 1/27-1/31 before that happens and then by 2/10 we are in a classic Nina Feb look and we're done unless we get the Nino March transition 2nd winter peak

That is bullshit....watch.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yup.

Euro and AI show this. Alot of potential .

[Damage In Tolland]

AWT.. there is no torch Back to snow threats by late next weekend 

https://x.com/bostonwxconsult/status/2007504924343779764?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

AWT.. there is no torch Back to snow threats by late next weekend 

https://x.com/bostonwxconsult/status/2007504924343779764?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Euro shows an opportunity mid month .

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro shows an opportunity mid month .

Every warmup mode is showed has failed since autumn. This no different. A few days of 40’s then right back 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Every warmup mode is showed has failed since autumn. This no different. A few days of 40’s then right back 

Man you are confused 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Every warmup mode is showed has failed since autumn. This no different. A few days of 40’s then right back 

Agree

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man you are confused 

He is right. Whats so confusing?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, MJO812 said:

He is right. Whats so confusing?

45 or 55 who cares. Crap pattern until mid month. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man you are confused 

There’s no torch . 
 

Deal With It

- Cosgrove 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

45 or 55 who cares. Crap pattern until mid month. 

Enjoy your vacation…Wtf are you doing posting here, when you’re in a tropical paradise?  

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Enjoy your vacation…Wtf are you doing posting here, when you’re in a tropical paradise?  

Hoping to bring the SE ridge with me

[CoastalWx]

Maybe the 13th it gets better? 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Hoping to bring the SE ridge with me

You’re out of the loop and have no feel for the weather and pattern. Put the phone away for a few days and open it back up at the airport. Get your head right 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe the 13th it gets better? 

Yes after the 10th 

[dendrite]

Ditty showing off his twitterology skills today

[Snowcrazed71]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Is this guy a joke? He doesn't even speak with an ounce of professionalism. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

North of the pike stays wintry through mid month. Post next weekends cutter we look to have chances south of pike right away by the 12/13th nice fantasy storm on 12z euro and AIFS day 10.. 

[ORH_wxman]

That 1/10 system is looking more and more CADish…this is prob gonna be weak sauce in terms of a thaw for NNE. Def above normal but I can see where people say this isn’t like the torches we dealt with 2020-2024

[CoastalWx]

If you want to have hopes and dreams and pray a crap pattern delivers more D-2” events that flip to rain go ahead. I’d prefer to wait until something that is much more conducive to winter weather. 

[binbisso]

[CoastalWx]

EPS AIfS definitely seem to bring back a weenie pattern quicker. Like 12-13 or so. 

[metagraphica]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That 1/10 system is looking more and more CADish…this is prob gonna be weak sauce in terms of a thaw for NNE. Def above normal but I can see where people say this isn’t like the torches we dealt with 2020-2024

Yeah the past few years the January thaw has been like mid 50's or more. This coming warm up is much more subdued. Tenor of the season so far. Cold or cooler regime reigns.

[binbisso]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

EPS AIfS definitely seem to bring back a weenie pattern quicker. Like 12-13 or so. 

Gefs has it by the 11th. I have to agree with others that the warm ups in the extended have become muted as we get closer since late November.