SnowGoose69 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 hours ago, Kitz Craver said: GEPS really flexing that SE ridge. That look has some risk Given it caved to the GEFS look from 2 days ago when the GEFS basically caved to the EPS I think we can toss it somewhat. I'd also be wary of how all 3 suites go from this booming PNA to a -PNA in the blink of an eye in the D9-16 range, we all know pattern changes tend to be rushed so my feeling is we end up holding that pattern from 240-320 or so for awhile vs hard flipping right to a -PNA/-EPO with a SER....that idea MAY be right but would not surprise me if its like 1/27-1/31 before that happens and then by 2/10 we are in a classic Nina Feb look and we're done unless we get the Nino March transition 2nd winter peak 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Going by the AIs and AI ensembles, it looks like a simple matter of cracking a few eggs to make a nice omelet 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Going by the AIs and AI ensembles, it looks like a simple matter of cracking a few eggs to make a nice omelet Good analogy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 this is an H.A./ +d(PNA) correction event that happens to be going west of us here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Pattern looks like garbage until mid month. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: this is an H.A./ +d(PNA) correction event that happens to be going west of us here... That is the pearly white dong to the promised land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: Given it caved to the GEFS look from 2 days ago when the GEFS basically caved to the EPS I think we can toss it somewhat. I'd also be wary of how all 3 suites go from this booming PNA to a -PNA in the blink of an eye in the D9-16 range, we all know pattern changes tend to be rushed so my feeling is we end up holding that pattern from 240-320 or so for awhile vs hard flipping right to a -PNA/-EPO with a SER....that idea MAY be right but would not surprise me if its like 1/27-1/31 before that happens and then by 2/10 we are in a classic Nina Feb look and we're done unless we get the Nino March transition 2nd winter peak That is bullshit....watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yup. Euro and AI show this. Alot of potential . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 AWT.. there is no torch Back to snow threats by late next weekend https://x.com/bostonwxconsult/status/2007504924343779764?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: AWT.. there is no torch Back to snow threats by late next weekend https://x.com/bostonwxconsult/status/2007504924343779764?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Euro shows an opportunity mid month . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro shows an opportunity mid month . Every warmup mode is showed has failed since autumn. This no different. A few days of 40’s then right back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Every warmup mode is showed has failed since autumn. This no different. A few days of 40’s then right back Man you are confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Every warmup mode is showed has failed since autumn. This no different. A few days of 40’s then right back Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man you are confused He is right. Whats so confusing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, MJO812 said: He is right. Whats so confusing? 45 or 55 who cares. Crap pattern until mid month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man you are confused There’s no torch . Deal With It - Cosgrove 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, CoastalWx said: 45 or 55 who cares. Crap pattern until mid month. Enjoy your vacation…Wtf are you doing posting here, when you’re in a tropical paradise? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, WinterWolf said: Enjoy your vacation…Wtf are you doing posting here, when you’re in a tropical paradise? Hoping to bring the SE ridge with me 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Maybe the 13th it gets better? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, CoastalWx said: Hoping to bring the SE ridge with me You’re out of the loop and have no feel for the weather and pattern. Put the phone away for a few days and open it back up at the airport. Get your head right 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe the 13th it gets better? Yes after the 10th 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Ditty showing off his twitterology skills today 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Is this guy a joke? He doesn't even speak with an ounce of professionalism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 North of the pike stays wintry through mid month. Post next weekends cutter we look to have chances south of pike right away by the 12/13th nice fantasy storm on 12z euro and AIFS day 10.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 That 1/10 system is looking more and more CADish…this is prob gonna be weak sauce in terms of a thaw for NNE. Def above normal but I can see where people say this isn’t like the torches we dealt with 2020-2024 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 If you want to have hopes and dreams and pray a crap pattern delivers more D-2” events that flip to rain go ahead. I’d prefer to wait until something that is much more conducive to winter weather. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 EPS AIfS definitely seem to bring back a weenie pattern quicker. Like 12-13 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That 1/10 system is looking more and more CADish…this is prob gonna be weak sauce in terms of a thaw for NNE. Def above normal but I can see where people say this isn’t like the torches we dealt with 2020-2024 Yeah the past few years the January thaw has been like mid 50's or more. This coming warm up is much more subdued. Tenor of the season so far. Cold or cooler regime reigns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, CoastalWx said: EPS AIfS definitely seem to bring back a weenie pattern quicker. Like 12-13 or so. Gefs has it by the 11th. I have to agree with others that the warm ups in the extended have become muted as we get closer since late November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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