January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Celebrate the Perihelion on Saturday and sunrise starts getting earlier. Back is creaking.

It’s only 19° and windy, but it didn’t feel too bad in the sun!

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s only 19° and windy, but it didn’t feel too bad in the sun!

Weirdly it doesn't.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The cold first week in January.  There still could be two light snow threats as well this coming week. He had a post saying pretty much there is no cold in sight in January. I disagree, yes we can all agree on week 2. 

Oh, my bad...I didn't see that. I disagree there, as well. I also see cold in the latter half, although probably focused west of here.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh, my bad...I didn't see that. I disagree there, as well. I also see cold in the latter half, although probably focused west of here.

Except I’m pretty sure he didn’t say that.  

[ineedsnow]

49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Jan 6 attempted a return in the operation GFS/12z   

Not in the same form as before, and in fact the contributing aspects are probably not even born of the same source considering the mangling that's taken place within the guidance cinemas over the last 3 or 4 days,... but, some sort of WAA snows get cooked up there, nonetheless.  

It's only 5.5 days away.   Fire up a thread!   ahha

We CMC here 

[ORH_wxman]

Euro coming in colder for 1/7 also compared to 00z. Quick shot of snow/ice even into SNE. 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro coming in colder for 1/7 also compared to 00z. Quick shot of snow/ice even into SNE. 

Yeah GFS has something there, too

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah GFS has something there, too

There’s two different waves in there.
 

GFS looked more robust snow-wise for 1/6 and then the follow up wave on 1/7-8 was kind of warm…but weak, almost really just a weak FROPA. Euro was weaker on 1/6 but a little colder on 1/7 and south which had a little shot of snow/ice with it. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s two different waves in there.
 

GFS looked more robust snow-wise for 1/6 and then the follow up wave on 1/7-8 was kind of warm…but weak, almost really just a weak FROPA. Euro was weaker on 1/6 but a little colder on 1/7 and south which had a little shot of snow/ice with it. 

heh, I actually knew that when i responded but i'm getting play-by-play fatigue.  haha

[WinterWolf]

44 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Celebrate the Perihelion on Saturday and sunrise starts getting earlier. Back is creaking.

Really… on January 1st…what’s happening to you Ken?  Does the back creak on July 1st?  And no, I’m not glass full or overflowing all the time either.   Looks like we have a couple threats to track again…I’ll enjoy whatever snow we can get. Long way to go…winter only officially 10 days old..back in great shape. 
 

And when we get the thaw, to whatever degree it comes with here, we will enjoy the nicer temps for a little reprieve. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Except I’m pretty sure he didn’t say that.  

I did't get that from the post of his that I agree with, but figured maybe there was another one that I didn't see.

[weatherwiz]

somehow I feel like that energy back in the SW ~7th is holding back on the potential for the wave to amplify a bit more

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh, I actually knew that when i responded but i'm getting play-by-play fatigue.  haha

In everyone’s defense, these waves are pretty weak sauce. Not much upside. The 1/6 wave has the most upside imho if it can maintain enough integrity…better antecedent airmass too. But even that one prob has upside of like 3-5” and the reality is likely significantly less than that. 
 

Im more interested in the post-1/10 pattern evolution. Been a lot of variance on that. 

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

Winter isnt quickly moving along and folks are not happy about it?

It’s moving at exactly the same pace it has for eons and we are 10 days in.  
 

so from a  purely quantitative standpoint, your post is as pointless as it is meritless. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

In everyone’s defense, these waves are pretty weak sauce. Not much upside. The 1/6 wave has the most upside imho if it can maintain enough integrity…better antecedent airmass too. But even that one prob has upside of like 3-5” and the reality is likely significantly less than that. 
 

Im more interested in the post-1/10 pattern evolution. Been a lot of variance on that. 

How did the post 1/10 period look to you today Will? 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

In everyone’s defense, these waves are pretty weak sauce. Not much upside. The 1/6 wave has the most upside imho if it can maintain enough integrity…better antecedent airmass too. But even that one prob has upside of like 3-5” and the reality is likely significantly less than that. 
 

Im more interested in the post-1/10 pattern evolution. Been a lot of variance on that. 

Yup...I am intrigued in that period too. Looks quite chaotic and that combined with the variance indicates the pattern should be more on the active side. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

How did the post 1/10 period look to you today Will? 

Euro Colder, GFS warmer.. Going to be sometime to figure that period out.. We track the small events in the meantime 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

How did the post 1/10 period look to you today Will? 

Ensembles aren’t out yet…GEFS mostly out and they are kind of meh. 
 

OP euro decided to go cold post-1/11. 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ensembles aren’t out yet…GEFS mostly out and they are kind of meh. 
 

OP euro decided to go cold post-1/11. 

Up until last winter the GEFS was owning the EPS on Pac based stuff for like 5-6 years in the long range, that changed last winter and so far this winter that trend has continued.  What has happened though the past winter and a half now is the GEFS is owning the EPS long range on the NAO stuff it seems so maybe lean towards each idea on both with that

[ORH_wxman]

EPS going with the OP in LR in really driving that PNA ridge up. That would bring in the chance for some coastals maybe in the 3rd week of the month.

[dendrite]

If you want a tiebreak…the GEPS look pretty good as we get toward mid month. 

[Damage In Tolland]

38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s two different waves in there.
 

GFS looked more robust snow-wise for 1/6 and then the follow up wave on 1/7-8 was kind of warm…but weak, almost really just a weak FROPA. Euro was weaker on 1/6 but a little colder on 1/7 and south which had a little shot of snow/ice with it. 

Ray doesn’t want it . He’d prefer not to get more snow 

[ORH_wxman]

EPS evolution D11-15 is pretty good actually. It’s not the most frigid but it’s good if you want to set up a pattern for more coastals

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ray doesn’t want it . He’d prefer not to get more snow 

I get it, He's in that zone that's been skunked, and it's worse since last night.. Most areas are between 10-20" in SNE while he's like 7"

[kdxken]

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

EPS evolution D11-15 is pretty good actually. It’s not the most frigid but it’s good if you want to set up a pattern for more coastals

 

We could use the coastals so we can all be friends again lmao 

[Kitz Craver]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I get it, He's in that zone that's been skunked, and it's worse since last night.. Most areas are between 10-20" in SNE while he's like 7"

Little low too, the last event was a 10 spot here alone

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

We could use the coastals so we can all be friends again lmao 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I get it, He's in that zone that's been skunked, and it's worse since last night.. Most areas are between 10-20" in SNE while he's like 7"

Well isn’t that even more reason to want snow whether it’s an inch or 9?

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

We could use the coastals so we can all be friends again lmao 

We could use them so we actually don’t finish another year BN in snowfall. Getting weakening overrunning systems and clippers won’t be sustainable for anyone who averages over about 40” per year.