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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread


Baroclinic Zone
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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It needs a chunk move. Which would take a pretty radical change in the azimuth of the N stream … I guess it could happen but it’s difficult to see how. 

I wouldn't be shocked if it did. Models have been terrible.

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The N stream is definitely trying to tug those isobars back and invert a trough.

IMG_5272.png

But aside from that scenario, this thing needs to go about 80 yards with 15s remaining and no timeouts. But like Tip said, we need a big chunk play out of bounds and then a hail mary.

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15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jan 2015 pulled it off....

Is that a circulation mode analog?
 

The problem isn’t the chunk move. It’s how can that happen with a Northwest of Southeast moving rampaging jet, and the progressive ridge, which is bulging east across the country at the same time

It’s not a matter of whether it’s happening in history it’s a matter whether it can now

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14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Is that a circulation mode analog?
 

The problem isn’t the chunk move. It’s how can that happen with a Northwest of Southeast moving rampaging jet, and the progressive ridge, which is bulging east across the country at the same time

It’s not a matter of whether it’s happening in history it’s a matter whether it can now

Not implying it's an analog...just saying. Do I expect it to do that? Negative lol

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Still … one would have to be a nimrod not to be impressed with that anomaly 

image.thumb.png.5a555d6df3344e6dc68c2a14f31b35bf.png

That was the running theme during Jan-Feb 2023. Let’s hope this is real transient. Deep western troughs are nightmares for snow and cold over here 

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50 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I see some warming and some rain mid to late next week up here. Second day in a row on the weather underground forecast. Not sure I buy a big warming up here, at least one enough to bring us rain. But I’m wrong a lot.

It’s coming. Models seem mild.

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