January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Typhoon Tip]

It needs a chunk move. Which would take a pretty radical change in the azimuth of the N stream … I guess it could happen but it’s difficult to see how. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It needs a chunk move. Which would take a pretty radical change in the azimuth of the N stream … I guess it could happen but it’s difficult to see how. 

I wouldn't be shocked if it did. Models have been terrible.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, MJO812 said:

I wouldn't be shocked if it did. Models have been terrible.

Not at this range and not that much

[MJO812]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Not at this range and not that much

The last storm moved within a few days .

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, MJO812 said:

The last storm moved within a few days .

Different scenario… 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It needs a chunk move. Which would take a pretty radical change in the azimuth of the N stream … I guess it could happen but it’s difficult to see how. 

Jan 2015 pulled it off....

[dendrite]

The N stream is definitely trying to tug those isobars back and invert a trough.

But aside from that scenario, this thing needs to go about 80 yards with 15s remaining and no timeouts. But like Tip said, we need a big chunk play out of bounds and then a hail mary.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jan 2015 pulled it off....

The morning after a 1-3” storm I looked at the models and was shocked . 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

39 minutes ago, Diggiebot said:

A day late and a dollar short!?!

Always 

[Typhoon Tip]

Still … one would have to be a nimrod not to be impressed with that anomaly 

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jan 2015 pulled it off....

Is that a circulation mode analog?
 

The problem isn’t the chunk move. It’s how can that happen with a Northwest of Southeast moving rampaging jet, and the progressive ridge, which is bulging east across the country at the same time

It’s not a matter of whether it’s happening in history it’s a matter whether it can now

[Typhoon Tip]

But like I said… Supply a radical enough reconstruction of those flow components and then it’ll happen maybe
 

Nothing is impossible

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Is that a circulation mode analog?
 

The problem isn’t the chunk move. It’s how can that happen with a Northwest of Southeast moving rampaging jet, and the progressive ridge, which is bulging east across the country at the same time

It’s not a matter of whether it’s happening in history it’s a matter whether it can now

Not implying it's an analog...just saying. Do I expect it to do that? Negative lol

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Of course now that this has been pointed out. The gfs promptly slides back SE

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Of course now that this has been pointed out. The gfs promptly slides back SE

Hey, can always go partake in the 'ole one-finger-salute-style prostate massage while watching BAM Weather blow snot rockets, if that comforts ya.

[Krs4Lfe]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Still … one would have to be a nimrod not to be impressed with that anomaly 

That was the running theme during Jan-Feb 2023. Let’s hope this is real transient. Deep western troughs are nightmares for snow and cold over here