January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Wasn’t going on a limb there.. A west based monster block was modeled for days. Since then the mega blocking has back off, so that idea is fading. It happen.. What’s your forecast just hiding behind your computer and calling out others? Or do you have one? 

You might’ve been reading something into my tone.  I’m not defending a troll, just pointing out that the pattern might be similar to what he said.  I think it might be briefly.  I don’t have any knowledge really to make a forecast except to say that Jan 10 to January 24 it’s more likely to be cold and snowy for the MA straight up into NE.

I appreciate what you do on here and sorry for any misunderstanding.

[mahk_webstah]

BAM weather vid on YouTube is great.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

What’s hard to understand? 

Why are you engaging with QG? He hasn't been an honest actor since his handle was noreaster27 in the early days 12+ years ago. 

[weathafella]

Seymour baring his fangs.  Wolfie showed him how after working out at Seymour’s gym.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

17 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

You might’ve been reading something into my tone.  I’m not defending a troll, just pointing out that the pattern might be similar to what he said.  I think it might be briefly.  I don’t have any knowledge really to make a forecast except to say that Jan 10 to January 24 it’s more likely to be cold and snowy for the MA straight up into NE.

I appreciate what you do on here and sorry for any misunderstanding.

My bad yes 100% misread that and you are right.. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Seymour baring his fangs.  Wolfie showed him how after working out at Seymour’s gym.

Lol ya me and wolfie are BFF's now 

[ORH_wxman]

Skynet is pretty weak sauce on the warmup out beyond the 7th. I don't think CNE-northward ever sees any liquid precip. 

[brooklynwx99]

lol what a disaster by the ECMWF. sometimes models fuck up wave breaking blocks... it happens

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol what a disaster by the ECMWF. sometimes models fuck up wave breaking blocks... it happens

 

ya funny thing is after trending for days to a massive west based block, we all knew the second it lost it , it wasn't coming back.. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Skynet is pretty weak sauce on the warmup out beyond the 7th. I don't think CNE-northward ever sees any liquid precip. 

You wonder if anyone does 

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Skynet is pretty weak sauce on the warmup out beyond the 7th. I don't think CNE-northward ever sees any liquid precip. 

Here we go…been the tenor. 

[WinterWolf]

27 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

BAM weather vid on YouTube is great.

Said that last night..guy is good-the real deal. 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

ya funny thing is after trending for days to a massive west based block, we all knew the second it lost it , it wasn't coming back.. 

The medium to long range skepticism cuts both ways for me. While the bias has been toward too much punching up warmth, we have to watch those exotic cold/favorable solutions too. Models just seem a step above rudderless imo.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The medium to long range skepticism cuts both ways for me. While the bias has been toward too much punching up warmth, we have to watch those exotic cold/favorable solutions too. Models just seem a step above rudderless imo.

Yes for sure. Can’t trust anything out there in the medium even. And the long range, flip a coin maybe . 

[ORH_wxman]

OP Euro today is kind of weak sauce on warmup as well. Not as much as Skynet....it does get pretty mild for a couple days, but no torching cutters....the 1/10 system bombs into the lakes but is more like a SWFE with snow/ice in CNE/NNE....SNE might be mixed to 35F rain in that scenario. But it just shows there's a lot of uncertainty even in a mild-ish longwave pattern. Early January is a good time to try and get away with a warmer longwave pattern. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The medium to long range skepticism cuts both ways for me. While the bias has been toward too much punching up warmth, we have to watch those exotic cold/favorable solutions too. Models just seem a step above rudderless imo.

I think a valuable lesson sometimes I forget too is regardless of the pattern modeled,  if there is an outlier amongst the big three ensembles, you can't just toss it, regardless of model biases.  The GEFS never really bit on the mega west based block, we assumed it would trend towards the EPS as it usually does, however the opposite ended up being true.  When a highly anomalous pattern is modeled, we need to see all three major ensembles on board for a few days for me to believe it. 

[The 4 Seasons]

33 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

BAM weather vid on YouTube is great.

Ill have to check it out. Anything's better than Direct Weather guy. I just checked that channel since about a year ago and looking at his recently thumbnails make me want to throw up. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Ill have to check it out. Anything's better than Direct Weather guy. I just checked that channel since about a year ago and looking at his recently thumbnails make me want to throw up. 

Ya…he’s a bit much. Everything is a bomb. And Major Major impact and implications. Lol…hyping it up for sure. 

[WinterWolf]

30 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Lol ya me and wolfie are BFF's now 

I’m liking the new and more assertive/confident Seymour.  You’ve blossomed into a knowledgeable, insightful MET.  I’m honestly not trying to sound condescending, but I’m proud of you pal. I mean that sincerely. 

[Chrisrotary12]

If it’s not going to snow… can it at least be warm? My gas bill would benefit. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I think a valuable lesson sometimes I forget too is regardless of the pattern modeled,  if there is an outlier amongst the big three ensembles, you can't just toss it, regardless of model biases.  The GEFS never really bit on the mega west based block, we assumed it would trend towards the EPS as it usually does, however the opposite ended up being true.  When a highly anomalous pattern is modeled, we need to see all three major ensembles on board for a few days for me to believe it. 

You were NAO'ed  

Heh... 'not the first time anyone was, whence seemingly waiting on the commitment by the analyst, that's when NAO fails to show up. Intention? Charlie Browning - 

Personally I find the NAO to be the biggest most stochastic POS voodoo index that was ever defined.  The problems in using it are textured and varied. 

Firstly, ( I'm not intending to lecture you; I'm just raging at the moment lol) is that it is actually created by the dispersion mechanics downstream off the Pacific -N/A wholesale wave signature.  [ Enter pita flop computing power here ...] and viola! the NAO emerges in the guidance... 

Secondly, there are two behaviors, which is a major pain in the ass.  The first is the obvious: blocking, identified by the geometry of the heights up there in the NAO geographic domain space.   The other form is insidiously hidden - the hemispheric logistics around the region act as though that geometric identity must be there, when one is not very obviously defined...  See, this is an indirect proof that the forcing actual coming from somewhere else.  Whether heights bloom within that behavior or not, that's when the EOF calculations finally give negative numerical values.    

Anyway, so the NAO is so badly handled ...or, so much worse so than the other indexes, because it is at the flop end of the Pacific hose, where is complexity is also then exacerbated further by interaction across the N/A continent.  In fact, it's probably more useful for when it does materialize on a D10 chart up there, to just correlate it to a period of uncertainty from the Pacific -

[Typhoon Tip]

The suppressed Bermuda ridge is likely to introduce some challenges if/when it is there and this affair up in the -EPO --> N/A deep SPV sets up, but excluding that for a moment..   this, to me, has fundamentally more potential for winter event genesis. 

  oh ... it's the la-la range GEFs, but they all have this look fwiw